Week 12 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. In this edition, we’ll discuss dental hygiene, people getting paid millions of dollars to not work, and there’s a sentence in here that includes both Kevin Spacey and Dr. Seuss. Oh, and we’ve got some very important matchups this week as we get closer and closer to what should be an insane postseason, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Mark Your Calendars

The College Football Playoff and Bowl Selection Show is slated for Sunday, December 3rd at noon ET. We think it would be fun to do an ESPN Bowl Challenge group with 4th & Forever readers. Akin to a bracket pool, we will post a link for you to join and pick the bowl game winners. We aren’t going to do anything fancy like making you pick against the spread or confidence points, just straight-up pick 'em. To sweeten the deal, each entry will cost $10, and it’ll be winner takes all, except 2nd place gets their money back. We will also be posting the standings in the newsletter and online during bowl season. More info to come but wanted to make everyone aware ahead of time. 

Off the Field

The coaching carousel is spinning at a rapid pace as more coaches and administrators have been asked to pack their desks since we last published Monday morning. Mississippi State fired first-year head coach Zach Arnett who was given the impossible task of guiding this team after Mike Leach died last December. It was a forced marriage that unsurprisingly didn’t pan out. Arnett is only 37 years old and was elevated from defensive coordinator, but the Bulldogs have been non-competitive in their recent losses. Athletic Director Zac Selmon (yes, that Zac Selmon WF fans) was hired after Arnett was promoted to head coach and wants his own guy to lead this program. With Texas and Oklahoma coming in next year, the second-toughest job in the SEC isn’t about to get any easier. Look for Selmon to give former head coach Dan Mullen a call and after he says no because he’s enjoying kicking back in ESPN's broadcast booth every weekend, we’d expect/hope for the Bulldogs to back up the Brink’s truck for Tulane’s Willie Fritz or go for the young and up-and-coming Jon Sumrall from Troy, who we think would be a fantastic hire.

San Diego State was happy to show former Michigan head coach Brady Hoke the door after he ‘retired’ on Monday. Hoke was very successful in previous seasons with the Aztecs, especially on defense, but the offense fell off the La Jolla cliffs this year and it was simply time for a change. The Aztec administration needs an ROI on their brand-new stadium and a 3-7 team that averages 20 ppg and less than 320 yards of offense isn’t going to pay the bills. Expect the Aztecs to go after a young coordinator on the West Coast like OC Ryan Grubb from Washington or UCLA DC D’Anton Lynn as they try to reestablish their superiority in the Mountain West.

Arizona State finally got its head out of the sand and fired the worst athletic director in the country, Ray Anderson. The best athletic directors are usually behind the scenes shaking hands, kissing babies, whatever they do up in their ivory tower president’s suite, but it’s usually a bad sign when your own fans are chanting for your firing. Formerly an NFL coaches agent, Anderson made some egregious hirings, questionable firings, and allegedly ignored claims of sexual harassment. In 2017, he paid head coach Todd Graham $12 million in buyout to kick rocks even though Graham was the winningest coach at ASU since the 1980s. Graham was a certified asshole so I’ll give Anderson that. Anderson then hired Herm Edwards who was 10 years removed from last coaching in the NFL and hadn’t been on a collegiate sideline for 30 years. Herm wasn’t hired just as a coach. No, Arizona State of all schools thought they could outsmart all of us and hire Edwards to run the ‘New Leadership Model’ which meant he’d be a hybrid of a coach, CEO, and general manager. To no one’s surprise, this NFL model did not work, as he was fired in 2022 after a loss to Eastern Michigan and was the cause for multiple NCAA investigations and probations due to blatantly violating COVID recruiting rules. Arizona State has long been seen as a potential sleeping giant in college football due to its location, growing recruiting footprint, and fan support, but they’ve never been able to get out their own way. This is a step in the right direction for the Sun Devils. Oh, almost forgot. Guess who Anderson represented when he was an agent? Yep, Herm Edwards.

While we think it’s hilarious to write about coaches and administrators getting paid millions of dollars to not do their job, we’d be remiss not to mention a hiring or two. After firing the previously untouchable Pat Fitzgerald for hazing allegations this summer, Northwestern elevated David Braun to interim head coach. He’s led the Wildcats to a 5-5 campaign which is even more impressive when you consider this team went 1-11 last year and some of their best players hopped in the transfer portal following Fitzgerald’s dismissal. On Wednesday, the interim tag was removed, and Braun was given a contract extension which will keep him in Evanston for the foreseeable future.

Last but not least, there were reports earlier this week that Texas QB Quinn Ewers is not entirely sure if he will leave school for the NFL Draft even though he’s eligible. For a guy who was rated the best high school recruit ever his on-field production has yet to match the hype. We’re no draft experts, but if he were to enter the draft this year, he’d likely be a 2nd or 3rd round pick. One more year in college might do him wonders but it’s tough to predict. The much more interesting subplot to this is the potential for Arch Manning to enter the portal. Manning likely came to Texas knowing he’d sit a year, but we don’t think he’d be too keen to sit for two years. If he hops in the portal, every program in the country would be after him and he would instantly be the biggest transfer prospect ever. 

6 Week 12 Games to Watch

#10 Louisville (9-1) @ Miami (6-4): PK, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Two of the most bipolar teams in college football square off in Coral Gables where Louisville can clinch their ACC Championship Game spot against FSU with a win. One week the Cards are smoking Notre Dame like a pipe, but the next they’re getting beat by a horrendous Pitt team. Similarly, it’s impossible to figure out this Miami team. They’ve notched wins against Texas A&M, Clemson, and Virginia, but have embarrassing losses to NC State, UNC, and Georgia Tech. Take your lithium and settle in because Vegas is expecting a close one.

#22 Utah (7-3) @ #17 Arizona (7-3): Arizona -1.0, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 2:30pm ET PAC12N

The Arizona Wildcats went 5-7 in 2022, saw several of their best players transfer to other teams (including conference rivals like USC), and were picked 8th in PAC 12 preseason rankings. The 2023 Arizona Wildcats are now ranked inside of the top 20, have won four games in a row, and are favorites this weekend against two-time defending PAC 12 champion Utah. We love this team and can’t help but find ourselves rooting for them at every turn.

But regardless of who we are rooting for, we think this game is the most underrated matchup of the weekend. Both of these teams are extremely well coached, both defenses fly around and hit hard, and both teams… well, no… Arizona can provide us with some exciting offense. Arizona freshman QB Noah Fifita has come out of nowhere to become not only one of 4th & Forever’s official favorite players, but genuinely one of the better quarterbacks in a conference that’s full of them. This future Big 12 matchup is worth tuning into this Saturday afternoon.

#20 UNC (8-2) @ Clemson (6-4): Clemson -7, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN

What was supposed to be one of the preeminent ACC games of the season has turned into ‘Oh I forgot they’re playing each other this year’. If the line surprises you, just remember this game is in Death Valley where Clemson’s only loss has been to FSU in OT this year, and Vegas always knows. Clemson’s other three losses have been on the road to NC State, Miami, and Duke who have good defenses, something Carolina does not currently possess. What Carolina does have is an all-world QB who will keep them in every game regardless of opponent. Carolina is the East Coast’s version of USC and it’s disappointing to see them waste a generational QB with a Little Caesar’s pizza-level defense. CFB fans want to see Maye and Williams on the brightest stages, and unless Louisville loses to Miami (which is possible), Carolina would need to win this one and next week at NC State to clinch their berth in the ACC Championship. It’s not impossible, but Vegas isn’t betting on it. If Louisville loses to Miami in the noon slate, this will certainly be worth tuning in for

#21 Kansas State (7-3) @ #25 Kansas (7-3): KSU -8.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET FS1

While it may not seem like it at first glance, the result of this game could have legitimate playoff implications, because it will help determine who Texas will play in the Big 12 Championship game. If Kansas State beats the Jayhawks and then defeats Iowa State next Saturday, the Wildcats will take on Texas in the title game in a rematch of a game that went to overtime just a few weeks ago. Kansas State loves playing spoiler in this league (see: ruining TCU’s perfect season in the Big 12 title game last year), and they’d love nothing more than another shot at Texas so you know they’ll be playing as hard as ever.

But this is a rivalry game, and Kansas isn’t here to go gently into that good night. Despite an early week scare that QB Jason Bean might not be able to play in this one with a head injury, it looks like he’ll be good to go which is massive for the Jayhawks, who have one of the more unique and exciting offenses in the entire sport of football. Kansas already beat Oklahoma in Lawrence last month, and you know they want to put the nail in the coffin for KSU’s championship hopes. Expect an exciting, intense one here.

#5 Washington (10-0) @ #11 Oregon State (8-2): OSU -2.5, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Yes, you read the above line correctly. The Oregon State Beavers are currently favored to beat the undefeated #5 Washington Huskies on Saturday. In what is unquestionably the game of the day, Jonathan Smith’s Beavs are looking to pull off the ultimate revenge game - not because of anything that’s happened on the field between these teams in the past, but because Washington’s (and Oregon’s) last-second ditching of the PAC 12 for the Big Ten back in August has left Oregon State athletics in no-man’s-land. You know the people in Corvallis would love to send Washington packing for the Big Ten by obliterating their national championship hopes.

Oregon State has been a juggernaut at home this season, and Washington has looked very pedestrian for about a month now. OSU QB DJ Uiagalelei continues to do a great job of commanding the Beavers’ offense and will be looking to put an exclamation point on what has been more of a question mark-like career thus far against a bad Washington defense. On the offensive side for the Huskies, QB Michael Penix Jr. is still a Heisman frontrunner, but things have been rocky in recent weeks, and Washington looks less sure of itself offensively than it did in the first half of the season. In Washington’s first seven games, the Huskies ran the ball on 37% of their plays. Over the past three games, they’ve run on 57% of their plays. While some of those extra runs may be an attempt to help a woeful defense, it’s also a sign that things aren’t clicking in the passing game quite how they were earlier in the season. Washington needs to bring the best version of itself into this one because this Oregon State team is nothing to play around with. This is must-watch TV for your Saturday night because the College Football Playoff race might get shaken up in a big way in Corvallis.

Tate’s pick: Washington wins 31-30. I love this Oregon State team, but I think Penix and the offense find a way at the end.

Rand’s pick: Oregon State wins 35-31. I want nothing more than to see some national championship hopes burst like a dam. 

#7 Texas (9-1) @ Iowa State (6-4): Texas -7.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX

QB Quinn Ewers makes his return for the first time in three games as the Longhorns take on Iowa State in Ames on Saturday, a place that has been a thorn in the Horn’s side (a thorn in the Horns’ horn?) for a few years now. Texas has lost two in a row playing up there and got shut out in Ames in 2015.  It feels like this is the game that will determine if Texas is truly back because, since 2009, this is the type of game that Texas has blown to completely ruin their season. Iowa State is a pesky, well-coached, physical team, and the Longhorns will need to bring their A-game without star running back Jonathan Brooks who is now officially out for the season. Don’t be surprised to see a tight one here as the banged-up Longhorns try to drag their way into the Big 12 Championship in hopes of getting to the playoff, because the Cyclones would love to ruin it all for them.

4 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

App State (6-4) @ James Madison (10-0): JMU -9, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 2:00pm ET ESPN+

College GameDay will be in town to watch James Madison take on App State on Saturday, and we’re sure you remember the first time GameDay visited Harrisonburg when Lee Corso dressed as James Madison and delivered one of the most famous headgear picks in the show's history. If you haven’t watched James Madison yet this season we highly recommend doing so Saturday as it may be your 2nd to last chance this season. The NCAA has now officially ruled that James Madison will not be granted a waiver to the Dukes to make them eligible for postseason play, due to the NCAA’s archaic rule that does not allow a program moving up to FBS from FCS to play in conference championships or bowl games. We here at 4th & Forever are pretty upset about this, but far from shocked that the NCAA was handed an easy PR win on a silver platter but decided to stick to enforcing its dumb, outdated rule that neither helps nor hurts anyone (well, except for JMU of course). Some things just never change. Regardless, this has been an unbelievable season for JMU, and we’re now rooting for the Dukes even harder in their pursuit of perfection. If you get to 12-0 JMU, we think you should claim the natty, and we’ll be on record supporting your claim. Try to tune in to the JMU game if you get the chance this weekend - this is America’s team, no matter what anyone else tries to tell you.

Illinois (5-5) @ #16 Iowa (8-2): Iowa -3.5, O/U 30.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FS1

Iowa can clinch their spot in the Big 10 Championship game with a win here or next week in Lincoln, NE. However, Iowa’s best defensive player, DB Cooper DeJean, will be out for the season after suffering a lower leg injury in practice this week which is a massive blow for the stout Hawkeye D. Lucky for them, Illinois has decided to shoot themselves in the foot with a very questionable depth chart decision. Last week, Illinois was forced to start backup QB John Paddock because of an injury to starter Luke Altmeyer. Paddock came in and casually threw for 507 yards and 4 TDs as he led the Illini to an OT win over Indiana. In the entire FBS, only Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders has thrown for more yards in a game. It’d make sense for him to start this week since Illinois hadn’t scored more than 30 points in a game previously and Altmeyer is averaging 209 passing yards/game, right? Wrong. Altmeyer is getting the start, and he gets the honors of facing an Iowa defense in Kinnick. 

UCLA (6-4) @ USC (7-4): USC -7.0, O/U 65.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

UCLA isn’t having a banner week off the field heading into their rivalry matchup. There are rumors head coach Chip Kelly is going to be fired after the season which isn’t outlandish but would be a mild surprise. Additionally, it was reported that during their Colorado game a few weeks ago, it was UCLA recruits on their official visit who stole cash and jewelry from the Buffs locker room. On the field, UCLA’s offense is an absolute disaster. They’ve used four different quarterbacks in their past two games which have led to a combined 17 points. Unsurprisingly, both of those contests were losses. Luckily for them, USC’s defense is an antidote for offensive ineptitude. Expect some points here in a game with the best uniform combo of the season. 

UNLV (8-2) @ Air Force (8-2): AFA -3.0, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBSSN

While we understand there are plenty of other things to watch at 3:30pm this Saturday, this game is about as good as G5 football gets. Both of these teams are very good, and both are fighting for a Mountain West title appearance in what may be each team’s last year in the league, as it’s looking increasingly likely that the PAC 12 may be scooping up some Mountain West teams to try to survive as a league. This is going to be a great game and is certainly worth a 2nd or 3rd TV slot if you’re sitting at home.

Wake Forest & Georgia 

Georgia (10-0): The #1 Georgia Bulldogs, who are coming off a 35-point victory over last week’s #9 team in the country, head to Knoxville to take on the #18 Tennessee Volunteers, who are coming off a 26-point loss to this week’s #9 team. I’ve been debating what exactly I wanted to write about this week - should I break this game down? Should I talk about my favorite memories of the Dawgs against Tennessee? Should I shit on Tennessee as a school, football program, and overall state? My ultimate decision was to do all three, so let’s do it.

The game breakdown is going to be extremely short. We have concerned ourselves over Josh Huepel’s offense for two years in a row now, and for two years Kirby and his defensive staff have largely shut that offense down. So, here’s what it will take for Georgia to win this game comfortably: Limit Jaylen Wright and the Tennessee running game with a man down in the box, and devote that extra man to the secondary to limit the several explosive play shots that Tennessee will take. Got it? Cool. If we can do that for a third consecutive year, we will beat this Tennessee team by 2+ scores.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s take a little trip down memory lane. My first true memories of Georgia Football didn’t really start until the 2003 season, but I do have fleeting memories of Dawgs games from before then. Because of Tennessee’s success in the late 90s and very early 2000s, I grew up knowing that the toothless hillbillies were to be taken seriously. Neyland Stadium has provided the Dawgs some heartbreak to be sure, but it has also given UGA fans so many incredible, heartwarming, truly memorable experiences. Let’s remember ‘em!

2001: Mark Richt’s first year as UGA’s head coach. I don’t quite remember this play actually happening live as I was only 6 years old, but I sure remember how immediately this play became Dawg lore. This win put Richt’s Dawgs on the map as a new force to be reckoned with in the SEC, with the unranked Dawgs coming off a mediocre decade in the 1990s defeating #6 Tennessee on the road in early October. It needs no introduction: The Hobnail Boot

2003: The 2003 Dawgs (again, the first team I truly remember) came into Neyland Stadium as the defending SEC Champions and as the #8 team in the country, but #13 Tennessee was as ready as ever to put the Dawgs back in their place in the SEC. It was a night game, Neyland was rocking, and with 7 seconds left in the first half, the Vols were looking to punch the ball into the endzone to take a 14-13 lead - and all of the momentum - into halftime. What happened next was nothing short of legendary. This play turned the game around in a way I have still not quite seen since, as 100,000 Tennessee fans took out their dentures in disgust, and Neyland Stadium fell completely flat for the entire second half as the Dawgs stormed to a 41-14 in a game that saw Vols fans exiting Neyland to go back to their meth labs in the 3rd quarter. An all-time Dawgs play.

2005: The 2005 Dawgs, quite possibly my favorite Dawgs team ever, came in undefeated and as the #5 team in the country, but as was tradition in the 2000s, had to travel to Neyland to play a very good Tennessee team that was ranked #8 at the time. The Dawgs took control early, but halfway through the 4th quarter, the Vols were down 6 with a very good shot to come back and win the game. Until this happened. Another legendary Dawgs moment at Neyland - 9-year-old me was going absolutely nuts.

2013: I was at this game, and it was a game that saw about 18 Georgia players tear their ACLs and our punter get a concussion (not kidding). But the game ended like this. It was such a crazy moment, and I’d feel pretty bad for just about any team losing a game this way. But not Tennessee. Fuck Tennessee. The Dawgs kicked a FG on the next possession of overtime to win it 34-31.

Throughout my lifetime, the Dawgs have had some massive victories at Neyland that have been highlighted by truly historic and legendary plays. And while I’d love to see another legendary play happen up there on Saturday, I think we are about to kick Tennessee’s tooth in. I think it’ll be more like this, which happened in 2017. Go f*cking Dawgs, Beat Tennessee.

Wake Forest (4-6): The Deacs head to South Bend, IN to face #19 Notre Dame (7-3) and old friend QB Sam Hartman. The game is at 3:30pm ET on NBC and the Irish are favored by -24.5 with an O/U of 46.5 for those interested.

On Tuesday, Clawson named backup QB Michael Kern the starter over Mitch Griffis. Kern came in for relief of Griffis during the Virginia Tech game, got injured, and we didn’t see him again until the second quarter of last week’s game. Expect to see some freshman and young backups get some playing time, especially if this game gets out of hand. WRs Duece Alexander and Horatio Fields made plays on offense last week and should get some increased playing time. Notre Dame is led by their defense that’s been giving up 16.9 ppg which is 11th best in the nation. Their offensive line and RB Audric Estime are elite and while their receivers are garbage it probably won’t matter in this game. I don’t want to waste time previewing a game that’s expected to be a blowout, so let’s make fun of Notre Dame instead.

Notre Dame is undisputed college football royalty. 7 Heisman Trophy winners, 11 national championships, 5th all-time in wins, they might be the bluest of blue bloods. They have a bajillion bandwagon fans all over the country, iconic helmets, play in a historic venue, Touchdown Jesus, the Golden Dome, the list goes on. TV executives drool over the chance to broadcast Notre Dame games and conferences have been laying out the red carpet for decades trying to get them to join. There might not be a more recognizable team in the country than Notre Dame. However, in modern college football, they’re closer to Nebraska than they are to Alabama. Just because they receive and expect the red-carpet treatment, doesn’t mean they should. History is littered with arrogant, pompous assholes who got treated like royalty even though they didn’t deserve it. Nero, Kevin Spacey, Dr. Suess, Henry Ford, you can look up why on your own time. This program hasn’t won a New Year’s Six or BCS Bowl since 1994 which is before I was born. Every time they get on the national stage they inevitably lose, and more often than not it’s in humiliating fashion. 2021 Playoff vs Bama they lost 31-14, 2018 Playoff vs Clemson they lost 30-3, 2013 National Championship vs Bama they lost 42-14. Between 1995 and 2007 they went to 9 bowl games, lost every single one, and only two of them were within a possession. When you think of Notre Dame Football, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? It’s probably one of their infamous losses like the 2004 Bush Push or this year’s classic against Ohio State. Please text me if your memory is a win because I am fascinated to know which game that’d be. Off the field it might be Brady Quinn sitting in the green room of the 2007 NFL Draft, or Manti Teo getting catfished, the 2016 academic cheating scandal, I can go on.

The point of all of this is to say, I don’t believe this program has the ability to win a national championship. It’s been 35 years since their last one and none of the recent changes in college athletics favor Notre Dame. Even though they recruit nationally, their high academic standards limit the pool of recruits and transfers they can take in. Yes, they still win at a remarkably consistent level which should be applauded, but don’t let their fans and CFB media convince you they are or deserve to be on the same pedestal as the Bama’s of the world. It’s a tough pill to swallow for one of the preeminent college football programs, but the sooner they admit their place in the CFB pecking order, the sooner they can celebrate winning seasons instead of hopelessly wishing for the national championship that will never come. Also, Rudy was offsides.

Tate’s Great Picks (21-38-1)

UCLA (6-4) @ USC (7-4): USC -6.5, O/U 65.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Pick - USC -6.5: As we discussed earlier, UCLA may be on #QuitWatch as it appears the team may be aware that head coach Chip Kelly is likely coaching his last game as a Bruin here. That sometimes could result in the rallying of the troops, but UCLA has been reeling for weeks, 5-star freshman QB Dante Moore may be headed to the transfer portal due to some broken NIL promises, and this team seems on the verge of total collapse. Say what you will about Caleb Williams and USC, but they have been fighting hard even in defeat this season. Give me the Trojans to cover.

Georgia State (6-4) @ #15 LSU (7-3): LSU -31.5, O/U 71.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ESPN2

Pick - LSU -31.5: Jayden Daniels is a Heisman frontrunner and is absolutely destroying secondaries right now, and Georgia State’s secondary is one of the worst in the country. GSU has also fallen out of contention for some season goals (ie: winning the Sun Belt East) over the past couple of weeks, so I’m thinking they may not be fully motivated for a full 60 minutes here (#QuitWatch). Jayden Daniels has a lot more to play for than the Georgia State defense does, and he’s already waaaayyyy better than they are.

Florida (5-5) @ #9 Missouri (8-2): Missouri -11, O/U 59 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Missouri -11, Game Total Under 59: Missouri is rolling right now on both sides of the ball, and this Florida team is falling apart, losing three straight in largely embarrassing fashion since their bye week. The Gators’ defense has given up 43 to Georgia, 39 to Arkansas, and 52 to LSU in that stretch, and are as solidly on #QuitWatch as you can be, while Mizzou has cracked the top 10 and is fighting for a New Year’s Six Bowl appearance. I’m expecting Mizzou to get off to a comfortable first-half lead and then cruise to victory in the second half, winning by two or more scores, with the under hitting as Mizzou’s defense stifles the UF run game.

Illinois (5-5) @ #16 Iowa (8-2): Iowa -3.5, O/U 30.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FS1

Pick - Game Total under 30.5: Friends, we are betting Iowa unders until one doesn’t hit. I have nothing else to say here.

#22 Utah (7-3) @ #17 Arizona (7-3): Arizona -1.0, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 2:30pm ET PAC12N

Pick - Arizona -1: These two teams fight really hard and play tough defense, but only one of these teams has a dynamic quarterback who can consistently make plays happen by himself. I’m expecting a battle for three quarters before Arizona proves to have the superior offense and wins late at home. 

Nebraska (5-5) @ Wisconsin (5-5): Wisconsin -4.5, O/U 37 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Pick - Game Total Under 37: These are two of the worst offenses in the sport of football, including high school and maybe even middle school teams. Both defenses are pretty well and always fight hard, it’s going to be quite cold in Madison, and I am not expecting many high-flying plays here. Under under under.

OnlyRans (50-55-1)

App State (6-4) @ James Madison (10-0): JMU -9, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 2:00pm ET ESPN+

Pick - App State +9: I don’t love the idea of betting against an undefeated team, but JMU is in a huge spot here. Notice how our entire preview didn’t even mention App? JMU is sucking up all the oxygen with GameDay rolling in, their NCAA waiver, and undefeated season. App State can still make the Sunbelt Championship (unlike the Dukes) and always shows up in big games. Give me the Neers. 

Rutgers (6-4) @ #12 Penn State (8-2): PSU -20.5, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FS1

Pick - Rutgers +20.5: I don’t like betting against an undefeated team, and I certainly don’t like betting on Rutgers. However, Penn State doesn’t have much to play for the rest of the season coming off an emotionally traumatizing loss to Michigan and just fired their OC. No idea what’s going on in Happy Valley, but I think the effort and fight from the Nittany Lions will be subdued. 

#3 Michigan (10-0) @ Maryland (6-4): Mich -19.5, O/U 50 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Michigan -19.5 & Game Total Over 50: Michigan is a wagon I will shed my morals for and ride. They have smacked around inferior Big 10 teams all season long. Their next target is a lowly Maryland team who’s coming off an inspiring 13-10 win against…Nebraska. Wooooooooo. Give me the Wolverines to cover with ease and Maryland’s offense to score some garbage time points to hit the over.

South Florida (5-5) @ UTSA (7-3): UTSA -16.5, O/U 67 - Thursday 9:00pm ET ESPN2

Pick - UTSA -16.5: The Roadrunners have won six in a row and none of them have been particularly close. They have a huge matchup against Tulane next week which will likely decide the American, so they’ve got a lot to play for. QB Frank Harris is a beast and South Florida’s defense has given up 40+ six times this season. Meep Meep.

Illinois (5-5) @ #16 Iowa (8-2): Iowa -3.5, O/U 30.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FS1

Pick - Game Total under 30.5: Do you like free money? 66% of Iowa games have hit the under since 2019.

San Diego State (3-7) @ San Jose State (5-5): SJSU -14.5, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET CBSSN

Pick - SJSU -14.5: Riding the Spartans here who have won four in a row, scored 35+ in all five wins, and just trounced Fresno State 42-18. San Diego State is dealing with coaching turmoil and they’re on the road. Spartans cover.

#7 Texas (9-1) @ Iowa State (6-4): Texas -7.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Iowa State +7.5: Iowa State has snuck back into the Big 12 Championship race behind their defense. In their past 5 games where they’ve gone 4-1, they’re giving up 16.6 ppg. The Longhorns haven’t won in Ames since 2017 and are a controversial officiating call away from losing the last four in a row. Jack Trice is a tough place to play, Texas has been skating on thin ice the past few weeks, and you can ask 2011 Oklahoma State what it’s like to play there with your national championship hopes on the line.

For my moneyline upsets of the week give me Northwestern ML, South Carolina ML, UCF ML, and UNLV ML. I’d like to issue a public apology to my grandfather for picking against his beloved Boilermakers, but Northwestern has the better defense here and is vying for bowl eligibility. South Carolina is a 1.5-point home dog to Kentucky and is my weekly ‘I don’t know why this line isn’t higher’ pick. I listened to Vegas last week in the Oklahoma State-UCF game and I think I’m learning my lesson. Doesn’t make sense, but I’m feeling ~cocky~. I rode the UCF train last week and have no reason to stop even though they’re underdogs against a bleh Texas Tech team. Air Force is at home against UNLV, but they cannot stop turning the ball over which is a hard trend to buck. 

Where in the World Are We?

RF: I will be in South Bend watching the Deacs take on the Irish and taking in all the picturesque beauty North Central Indiana has to offer. Not much to say about the game but the weekend will be fun, and it’s not supposed to be excruciatingly cold. Go Deacs.

TS: After a couple of Athens weekends in a row I’m giving my body a rest and staying back in Atlanta this week, but after writing my UGA/Tennessee section above, I’m kinda regretting not getting up to Neyland. I’m sure there are still thousands of trailers available on Airbnb, but I think I’ll just save my money for the SEC Championship game, which Tennessee hasn’t even played in since 2007. Go Dawgs.

Hope you have a great weekend, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.