Week 11 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. In this edition, we discuss unemployed people, the economies of small Pacific island nations, and determine who actually owns this newsletter. We also had some great matchups take place and other big news stories be announced, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Who Owns the Newsletter?

The answer is Tate, because the mighty Georgia Basketball team took down the sad and pathetic Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Friday night, 80-77. After an insanely hot start by the Deacs from the 3 point line early in the game, the Hoop Dawgs settled in and took control of the game for most of the night, feigning off a comeback attempt by Wake near the end. It was a big game for Noah Thomasson - UGA’s starting point guard who transferred in from Niagara - who had 21 points on 50% from the floor, while freshman guard Silas Demary Jr. continued to look like he could end up having one of the better careers in UGA basketball history, scoring 10 points and grabbing 5 rebounds while playing phenomenal defensively all night long. Jabri Abdur Rahim, Georgia’s best scorer, finished with 17, while Tate finished the night as a winner and Rand as a big fat loser.

The Dawgs also went on to beat NC Central on Sunday evening to move to 2-1 headed into a big matchup with #13 Miami on Friday in the Bahamas, while Wake takes on Utah on Thursday in Charleston. As a reminder, we’ll be posting some college basketball content on the 4th & Forever website in the coming months, and we’ll be sure to let you know when that happens. For now, Tate owns this newsletter until the Deacs and the Dawgs matchup again in some other sport. 

Coaches Getting Canned

The coaching carousel was uncharacteristically quiet through the first 11 weeks of the season, but on Sunday, three different coaches were handed a pink slip. College football is a ruthless and cutthroat sport and Jimbo Fisher was fired even after beating Mississippi State 51-10 on Saturday. Jimbo was 45-25 in six seasons but Texas A&M never won more than 9 games in a season, hasn’t won a road game in 2 years, and has consistently failed to live up to their lofty expectations. Jimbo is going to get paid $75.6 million not to coach TAMU thanks to his fully guaranteed contract, which shatters the previous buyout record of Gus Malzahn’s $21.5 million when he was fired by Auburn a few years back. Paying someone $75 million not to coach football is an unfathomable number. For comparison, the GDP of the Pacific island nation Tuvalu is $60 million. However, this move had to be done with the hated Longhorns coming into the SEC next year and the competition only getting stiffer. We expect them to give former DC and current Duke coach Mike Elko a long look, along with Kansas’ Lance Leipold and Kansas State’s Chris Kleiman. The swing for the fences move would be Oregon’s Dan Lanning and FSU’s Mike Norvell. TAMU has the money to grab anyone they want, and unless your last name is Saban, Swinney, or Smart, you’d be stupid not to at least listen. 

Boise State beat New Mexico 42-14 on Saturday, but it still wasn’t enough to save Andy Avalos’ job. Boise State hasn’t had a losing season since 1997 and currently sits at 5-5 on the year. After Bryan Harsin was hired away by Auburn, Avalos who is also an alum, was never able to gain consistent momentum on the field or recruiting trail. Boise’s first and potentially only call will be to Harsin who is not coaching after being canned by Auburn last year. 

Lastly, Penn State fired offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich after the Nittany Lions underwhelming offensive performance against Michigan in Saturday’s loss. In their two losses to Ohio State and Michigan this year, QB Drew Allar was a combined 28/64 passing (43% completion percentage) for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns. The revolving door of offensive coordinators continues in Happy Valley as Franklin’s next hire will be his sixth in the past nine years. 

Conference Championship Races

With the college football regular season quickly coming to a close, let’s look at where each conference championship race stands after Week 11. 

It’s a four-horse race for the American title game with Tulane, SMU, and UTSA all sitting at 6-0 in the conference. Memphis is right on their heels with a 5-1 conference record. SMU travels to Memphis next weekend while Tulane hosts UTSA in Week 13. We think SMU & Tulane will end up being the final two teams here.

Florida State (10-0) beat rival Miami (6-4) 27-20 on Saturday night in Tallahassee, clinching their spot in the ACC Championship. If Louisville (9-1) beats Miami on the road next week, they’ll meet the Noles in Charlotte. If the Cards lose, Carolina (8-2) would need to win their final two road games against Clemson (6-4) and NC State (7-3) to make it back to Charlotte. If you missed on Saturday night, Carolina beat Duke (6-4) 47-45 in 2OTs in a game that saw controversial calls, 39 fourth-quarter points, and the teams combining for a perfect 6-6 on fourth down. Elsewhere in the ACC, Clemson (6-4), Virginia Tech (5-5), and Syracuse (5-5) coasted to wins over Georgia Tech (5-5), Boston College (6-4), and Pittsburgh (2-8) respectively. 

Texas is a game up on everyone sitting at 6-1 in conference play, but there are 4 teams at 5-2 and in second place. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Iowa State all have a path to Arlington, but we expect the Cowboys to come out on top with their two winnable games left against BYU and Houston. 

The Big 10 East will once again be decided on Thanksgiving weekend in Ann Arbor when Ohio State comes to town. Ohio State (10-0) trounced Michigan State (3-7) 38-3, while Michigan (10-0) didn’t attempt a pass in the second half but still beat Penn State (8-2) 24-15. Jim Harbaugh was suspended for three games by the Big 10 on Friday, so offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore was elevated to acting head coach. After the game, an emotional Moore started crying like a baby and thanking Harbaugh and the Michigan administration for some unknown reason. If you remember from earlier this year, Michigan paid tribute to Harbaugh when he was serving his other suspension by holding 4 fingers up on their first offensive play. Michigan acts like Harbaugh died every time he is suspended and it’s insufferable yet comical which is something only Michigan can pull off. Anyways, the winner of The Game will likely get the honors of murdering the Iowa Hawkeyes (8-2) who beat Rutgers (6-4) 22-0 on Saturday and is one win away from clinching the Big 10 West.

Conference USA’s championship match is set between Liberty (10-0) and New Mexico State (8-3) as Jacksonville State (7-3) is ineligible for postseason play given their recent elevation to the FBS. Similarly, the SEC is already set between Georgia (10-0) & Alabama (9-1) who both stomped Ole Miss (8-2) & Kentucky (6-4) respectively. 

The MAC will be Toledo (9-1) versus either Miami (OH) (8-2), Bowling Green (6-4), or Ohio (7-3). Miami (OH) has the inside track as they only need to beat Buffalo (3-7) or Ball State (3-7) to clinch the division. 

The Mountain West is wide open with 5 different teams in contention. Air Force and UNLV are both 5-1 but play each other next week. Boise State, San Jose State, and Fresno State are all 4-2 and can still sneak in. Our money is on UNLV and Air Force to meet in a rematch for the ship. 

The Pac-12 is a little complicated but the most expected and simplest resolution is Washington (10-0) and Oregon (9-1) winning out and meeting in a highly anticipated rematch. Oregon State (8-2) gets the Huskies at home before traveling to Oregon and if they win out they’ll be in. Arizona (7-3) has an outside yet highly unlikely shot too. We think it’ll be Washington and Oregon playing in Vegas but don’t count out the Beavers just yet.

Assuming James Madison (10-0) does not get their appeal to the NCAA granted to make them eligible for the Sun Belt conference championship and a bowl game, it’ll be Troy (8-2) coming out of the West versus Coastal Carolina (7-3), App State (6-4), or Georgia Southern (6-4) out of the East. Given the fact Coastal and App have to play JMU, we think Georgia Southern will sneak in by beating Old Dominion (4-6) and App State. 

Holding Ourselves Accountable

OnlyRans: Last week: 5-6 - Season Record: 50-55-1

L/L - Oregon -15 & Game Total Over 73.5: beat USC 36-27

W - Rutgers @ Iowa Game Total Under 28.5: Iowa won 22-0

W - Liberty -13.5: beat Old Dominion 38-10

L - Arizona -10.5: beat Colorado 34-31

W/L - SMU -17 & Game Total Over 67.5: beat North Texas 45-21

W/W - UCF +2.5 & UCF ML: beat Oklahoma State 45-3 

L - Fresno State +1: lost to SJSU 42-18

L - Nebraska ML: lost to Maryland 13-10

Groundhog Day here with another performance one game off .500 in either direction. Listening to Vegas and betting on UCF was smart, while not listening to Vegas and insinuating I am smarter than the oddsmakers with Fresno State was idiotic. Speaking of idiotic, why did I put any faith in Nebraska? Every other loss is excusable but tune in next week where I don’t learn from my mistakes and go 6-6 or something for the tenth week in a row.

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 2-6 - Season Record: 21-36-1

W - Michigan -4.5: Michigan won 24-15

L - Oregon -15: Oregon won 36-27

L - Washington -8.5: Washington won 35-28

L - Arizona -10.5: Arizona won 34-31

L - Oklahoma State -2.5: UCF won 45-3

W - Rutgers @ Iowa Game Total Under 28.5: Iowa won 22-0

I’m not sure why I am even doing this anymore. Attempting to apply any logic, past results, or specific on-field matchups just completely goes out the window every time that I pick a game. Oklahoma State coming off one of its biggest wins in school history and fighting for a conference championship? Let’s go lose to an average UCF team by 42. Arizona having one of the best defenses in the PAC 12 in recent weeks and playing a team without a functional offensive line? What do ya say we go give up 31 points through the first three quarters and have to come back to win. Washington playing the worse offense in the PAC 12? How about we give up 28 first half points? I’m getting reaaaal tired of having to write about picks that I lose every single week, so dammit, I’m stopping here. Nothing makes sense. Whatever.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (10-0) - Georgia 52 - Ole Miss 17: What a day in Athens, GA. A little rain couldn’t stop 93,000 people from yelling and barking all night long, and the crowd helped put this one away early. As is tradition, our defense gave up a first possession touchdown because this team loves to test themselves, but Carson Beck and the offense responded immediately with an 8-play touchdown drive which was followed by a 4-play touchdown drive on our next possession, and while Ole Miss did tie it 14-14 at one point in the second quarter, it never felt like the Rebels would be able to keep up. The Dawgs’ 28-14 halftime lead rolled right into the 3rd quarter where the Dawgs continued to dominate, and we got to see the backups pretty early which is always a lovely thing to be able to say when you’re playing a top 10 team. We had yet another masterclass from Beck, who went 18-25 for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns, Ladd McConkey had another big day, the OL and the running backs had their best game of the season, and of course, Brock Bowers returned only 26 days after his ankle surgery to catch 4 passes including a touchdown, and by himself had Sanford Stadium just about as loud as I’ve ever heard it. 

It was a dominating performance by the Dawgs who seem to be peaking at the right time with an SEC title game against Alabama taking place in just a few short weeks. While I could spend some time breaking down some more of the Ole Miss game, I just want to take a brief moment to think about where we are and what we are witnessing as Georgia fans. The Dawgs have won 27 straight games, have spent 22 consecutive weeks as the AP Poll’s #1 team, and are hunting for their third straight national championship, a feat that nobody has ever accomplished. We have new young players popping up and making plays every single week, we have the #1 recruiting class in the 2024 cycle and and may very well sign the #1 and #2 players in the 2025 class, and Kirby Smart is only 47 years old. 

Florida lost again and will likely not even make a bowl game, Georgia Tech lost again and sucks, Auburn sucks, Tennessee got smacked and looks like trash, and hell even South Carolina is straight up toilet water. We are witnessing the glory days, and days like Saturday make me never want to forget what it feels like. How Bout Them Fuckin Dawgs.

Wake Forest (4-6) - NC State 26 - Wake 6: Big sigh. 8 first downs, 1-12 on third down, 163 total yards, 7 rushing yards. Captain Obvious here but you aren’t going to win many games with such an anemic offensive output, Wake. I’ll keep going…2 turnovers, allowing 268 rushing yards, having the ball for 20 minutes less than State, a pick-two on a two-point conversion which just about sums up the day. Wake came out flat, and the game was over before halftime. Clawson was pissed in his postgame presser: “I just want to apologize to our fan base and students. That was just an awful performance. We were flat, we had no energy and that is 100 percent on me. I've got to do some soul searching and look at our team. This is two games in a row, against Florida State and NC State. They are both two teams we've had a lot of success against the last few years. We were basically non-competitive against those two programs. That was not even a competitive football game.”

There’s not much to glean from such a disappointing, boring, lifeless game. Michael Kern looked decent after he came in for Mitch Griffis, but that doesn’t solve our Swiss cheese offensive line. The defense looked good I guess? Credit to State. You beat the hell out of us and deserved to win. With the remaining two games on the road in South Bend and Syracuse, the school record seven-year bowl streak is likely ending this year. Hopefully, this team doesn’t quit and Clawson can inspire them to play with signs of life and competence. On to the next one, Go Deacs.

Texts of the Week

“I’ve taken my pants off in Hedges.” - Jason Levenstiem 

“Love seeing the young guys getting reps against FCS opponents, will really help when we get to SEC play.” - Jack Zucker

“Don’t sugarcoat the fact that the man was hungry.” - Robbie Eisenman discussing why Kirby Smart did not take his timeouts before halftime

“That pass to Milton out of the backfield has me needing the anti.” - Alec Nathan discussing a medication I have been developing for several years. Coming soon boys.

-Meme made by Jason Levenstiem

Hope you have a great Monday, and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.