Week 10 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We simply have to lead off today’s newsletter with a big shoutout to Oklahoma State, who beat archrival #8 Oklahoma in what will be the last Bedlam game for the foreseeable future. Pokes fans have been understandably pissed off at Oklahoma for leaving them in the dust as the Sooners head to the SEC, and we here at 4th & Forever couldn’t be happier to see Okie State have permanent bragging rights for the years to come. Week 10 provided us with some great games and big-time matchups throughout the rest of the country too, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

4th & Forever Housekeeping

While it may seem like we don’t have any interests, hobbies, or passions outside of college football, rest assured we do, and it’s college basketball. The CBB season starts tonight, and we are going to cover and write about the season on occasion. We don’t have a set schedule for basketball coverage as Rand certainly has no plans to write a recap on the Wake-Elon game or Tate to write about the Georgia-NCCU game. However, all of our basketball content will appear on our website, and we will let you know in the newsletter when new posts go up. There will be a heavy focus on ACC and SEC content so if you want to know how the Utah Utes basketball season is going, please see a doctor and/or a different publication.

Favorites are Favorites for a Reason

Outside of the upset in Stillwater on Saturday, college football’s best teams held serve and kept their playoff hopes alive on a Saturday that saw virtually no major upsets. #1 Ohio State worked through a first-half scare against Rutgers, taking care of business in the 2nd half to win 35-16. #2 Georgia took down #12 Missouri in Athens (more below), while #3 Michigan crushed lowly Purdue 41-13 (side note: internet rumors are suggesting that there might be some fireworks Monday between the Big Ten and Michigan regarding the cheating scandal, so keep your eye out for that today). #4 Florida State played a remarkably boring game against Pitt, winning 24-7, while #6 Oregon demolished Cal 63-19. #5 Washington and #7 Texas had tough games against ranked opponents in #20 USC and #23 Kansas State, respectively, but both were able to avoid upsets and come away with close victories at the end. Even #8 Alabama managed to cover their 3-point spread against the best team left on their schedule, #14 LSU.

We’ve mentioned before that the lack of major upsets so far this season has left us with a November that could be an all-timer, but it seems like even that will have to wait another week. We still aren’t sure that there is a big difference in quality between any of the top 10 teams in the country, but all of these teams keep doing what we’re asking them to do - win. The stakes are as high as ever for so many teams that still have conference and national championship hopes, and we’ll get to watch it all unfold and work itself out over the final three weeks of the regular season. Count us in.

Quick Hitters

In the rest of the Big Ten, #11 Penn State flew past Maryland 51-15, and Penn State fans should be happy to see their offense look competent heading into their massive matchup against Michigan in Happy Valley next Saturday. Nebraska lost to a Michigan State team that doesn’t even want to be playing anymore, heavily hampering the Cornhuskers’ chances of making a Big Ten championship appearance. It’s as if everyone in the Big Ten West wants to give Iowa the honors of getting smoked in Indianapolis - Wisconsin made sure to lose to 3-6 Indiana on Saturday for seemingly the exact same reason.

Down south, the LSU vs Alabama game went pretty much how we expected it to until QB Jayden Daniels got knocked out of the game in the 4th quarter. It was a fun, back-and-forth game between two teams with elite talent, and the entire second half felt like whoever could break serve first would win the game, which is exactly what Alabama was able to do late, intercepting a deflected Jayden Daniels pass before Jalen Milroe scored his 4th rushing touchdown of the game to put the Tide up two scores. Daniels went down on the next possession and the game was essentially over then. A lot of credit needs to be given to the job Nick Saban has done this year - after losing to Texas and nearly going to overtime with USF the next week, this Crimson Tide team has gotten better each week and looks to be a true national championship contender at this point. It’s wild to think that a month ago, everybody in the country thought Milroe would be what held Alabama back from being a true championship contender. At this point, we’re not sure where the Tide would be without him.

In the rest of the SEC, Ole Miss survived a wild game against Texas A&M to improve to 8-1 ahead of their massive showdown against Georgia next week. The Rebels offense remains extremely explosive and dangerous, with QB Jaxson Dart playing lights out week after week, and WR Tre Harris proving he’s next in line as the next great Ole Miss wide receiver. For A&M… yeesh. One more loss might do the trick for ole Jimbo… we expect a coaching search to get underway sooner rather than later in College Station. Tennessee whipped UConn, Auburn beat down Vanderbilt, and Kentucky handled Mississippi State throughout the rest of the league.

In the Big 12, the exciting race for the conference title game just got a lot clearer, and it’s looking pretty Orange. With Oklahoma taking its second conference loss, Texas now sits alone at the top of the Big 12 standings, while Oklahoma State now sits in 2nd holding tiebreakers over Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Kansas State. We already gave a shoutout to the Pokes up above but screw it we’ll do it again because we are so happy to see a non-Texas/OU rematch in the schools’ final year in the league. Oklahoma State is playing like a top 15 team in the country at this point, and we think a matchup with Texas in the title game could be a thrilling one. Keep your eye on this race down the stretch of the season.

In the ACC, Sam Hartman dropped to 0-5 in his career against Clemson and Dabo finally gave us a reason to talk positively about his team and not focus on his apologies after lashing out during his press conferences. After the win, Dabo said, “If Clemson's a stock, you better buy all you freakin' can buy right now!” We don’t think it’d be wise to solicit financial advice from a coach whose team is now 5-4, but we would certainly sell your stock in Notre Dame instead of buying Clemson’s. Boston College got to bowl eligibility and has won 5 in a row after being Syracuse 17-10 on Friday night. Syracuse fans were chanting ‘Fire Dino’ which we can’t argue with after the Orange dropped their fifth straight game. Louisville annihilated Virginia Tech 34-3 even with a litany of injuries to key players, and while we don’t think they can beat Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, there’s certainly the potential to make it interesting. Hearty congrats to Carolina who ended their two-game skid by beating up on the Campbell Camels 59-7, while FSU messed around with Pitt for longer than they should’ve before winning 24-7. NC State might not have an offense, but their defense can make any opposing QB look miserable out there. This week, it was Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke turn as he threw three interceptions and tacked on a fumble to his abomination of a stat line.

In the Pac 12, Deion demoted OC Sean Lewis and replaced him with former NFL head coach Pat Shurmur. Shurmur called a masterful game in their 26-19 loss to #16 Oregon State if the goal was to have 238 total yards and -7 yards rushing. 4th & Forever darling Washington State has dropped 5 in a row after losing 10-7 to Stanford, while #18 Utah smoked Arizona State 55-3. Next week, the Utes travel to Washington in what is a massive game out west. #19 UCLA lost to Arizona who is enjoying quite the turnaround under Jedd Fisch after spending years wandering the desert of futility.

What in the world is going on in the Group of 5? #25 Air Force turned the ball over six times in their 23-3 loss to Army, knocking them from the unbeaten ranks. AAC and G5 New Year’s Six bid frontrunner #24 Tulane escaped 13-10 over East Carolina who is 1-8 on the year. Fresno State, Memphis, and SMU all won again, but it’s anyone’s guess who gets that coveted bowl spot, as they all look beatable. Last but not least, we’d be remiss if we didn’t shoutout the South Dakota State Jackrabbits for remaining unbeaten and beating the previously mighty North Dakota State Bison, while the VMI Keydets rolled into Johnson City, TN and beat ETSU 31-24.

Holding Ourselves Accountable

OnlyRans: Last week: 6-6-1 - Season Record: 45-49-1

L - Nebraska -3: lost to Michigan State 20-17

L - Wisconsin -9.5: lost to Indiana 20-14

W - Iowa @ Northwestern Game Total Under 30.5: Iowa won 10-7

W - Washington @ USC Game Total Over 76: Washington won 52-42

L/L - Notre Dame -2.5 & Game Total Under 46: Clemson won 31-23

W - NC State +4.5: State beat Miami 20-6

Push - TAMU +3: Ole Miss won 38-35

L - UCF @ Cincy Game Total Over 59.5: UCF won 28-26

W - Kentucky -3.5: beat Mississippi State 24-3

W - Stanford +13.5: beat Washington State 10-7

W - Boston College ML: beat Syracuse 17-10

L - TCU ML: lost to Texas Tech 35-28

I chirped Tate on Sunday because I thought I had a winning week by going 6-5-1 but forgot I took the ND-Clemson under which was a flop. Notre Dame killed me, and who would’ve thought betting on the Big 10 West would be a fruitful endeavor? I don’t know which trend is more impressive (read: sad), how consistently mediocre my picks have been all season, or how atrocious Tate’s have been. To make myself feel better, I’ll go with Tate’s.

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 2-3-1 - Season Record: 19-34-1

Push - Ole Miss -3: beat Texas A&M 38-35

W - Oklahoma State +5.5: beat Oklahoma 27-24

W - Iowa @ Northwestern Game Total Under 30.5: Iowa won 10-7

L - Nebraska -3: lost to Michigan State 20-17

L - Wake Forest @ Duke Game Total Under 44.5: Duke won 24-21

L - LSU ML: lost to Alabama 42-28

If you like laughing at my picks as much as I do, then you probably thought the ending of the Duke/Wake Forest game was pretty funny. Well… maybe not all of you… but after two weeks of letting my girlfriend make my official picks for you, my first personal bet of the week was the under of 44.5 in Durham on Thursday night, and because the betting gods are playing some sort of sick joke on me this year, Duke kicked a game-winning field goal at the end of the game to go over at exactly 45. Whatever man. At least the Iowa under was the surest money in the entire world, and my Oklahoma State +5.5 with a little side ML action actually had me come out in the green this weekend. But I just am who I am at this point on my official picks - a big fat dumb idiot.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (9-0) - Georgia 30 - Missouri 21: It wasn’t our best game, and it wasn’t our worst game, but the Dawgs took down the #12 team in the country, a team that played extremely well, and we’re one step closer to our third straight undefeated regular season. As is tradition, we got off to a slow start, trailing 7-3 at the end of the first quarter and taking a 10-10 tie into halftime. Missouri seemed extremely prepared defensively following their bye week and did an excellent job up front in not allowing Georgia to get really anything going on the ground for the vast majority of the day. Thankfully Carson Beck was as poised and accurate as ever, once again throwing for more than 250 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t an offensive performance that we’ll look back on with tremendous nostalgia, but Beck and the offense did enough against one of the country’s better defenses to get the job done.

As we discussed in last Thursday’s newsletter, I thought the most interesting matchup of this game was Missouri’s receivers against Georgia’s secondary - and that absolutely proved to be the case. For the past several years, Georgia’s primary boundary cornerback has not moved around much at all. No matter what receiver or group of receivers we’ve faced, our boundary CB (Kamari Lassiter this year, Kelee Ringo and Derion Kendrick in ‘22 and ‘21) stick to their side of the field rather than following around whatever player one might think we’d try to get our best CB on. But on Saturday, as he is akin to do seemingly once per season, Kirby surprised everybody - including Missouri - by using Kamari Lassiter in a much more versatile role for the first time in his career. Lassiter lined up all over the field, from the Boundary spot, to the slot, to even fitting runs in a more nickelback type of role at times, and he was more-or-less dominant in each of those spots. After Missouri’s best player Luther Burden III caught a 39-yard touchdown in the first quarter, Lassiter and the Dawgs’ secondary held Burden to only two more catches for 15 yards over the rest of the game. It seemed apparent that Missouri was counting on being able to match Burden up with guys like Tykee Smith or Javon Bullard, but because Kirby and his defensive staff are the best at what they do, we had an answer to that hypothetical bad matchup before the game even started. Incredible job by Lassiter and a big shoutout to Julio Humphrey, who filled in Lassiter’s spot at boundary for much of the game and played exceptionally well. This defense isn’t what it has been for the past two years, but they’re consistently shutting offenses down at key points in the game, they’re coached by several of the best defensive minds in football, and a new young player seems to step up and make a name for himself each and every game. I still think this team is rounding into being an extremely difficult group for anybody to beat down the final stretch of the season.

Wake Forest (4-5) - Deacs 21 - Duke 24: Losing is one thing, but losing because you beat yourselves makes it even worse. Maybe it’s karma from the Pittsburgh win earlier in the year, but if Wake doesn’t turn the ball over, commit stupid penalties, or miss chip shot field goals, all in the second half, we’re walking out of Durham with a win. I haven’t been able to wrap my mind around what I watched on Thursday night, but I do know it was brutal, cold, and frustrating. Since I can’t form words about that game yet, I’ll let my friends on Twitter tell you how I feel.

“That’s a painful loss.” -@MSD_RaJohnston

“I mean holy shit man” -@CamLemons_

“Jones suplexes the receiver and that’ll probably end the game. Duke in FG range. Everything sucks.” -@DeaconSports

“2 missed field goals, a fumble, an interception, 3 personal fouls (stemming from 2 different drives). A myriad of inexplicable, inexcusable errors are going to send Wake Forest back to Winston-Salem with a loss that almost certainly should've been a win.” -@essexthayer7

“That’s probably the most brutal self-inflicted loss for Wake Forest I can remember in my 10 years covering the team.” -@Les_Johns

“Winnable game. Hell, would even venture to say we played better. But we literally shot ourselves in the foot repeatedly from the time we went up 7-0. That’s the frustrating part tbh. You could pick 10 different mistakes that cost us the game. Tough pill to swallow.” -@RountreeIII

On to the next, Go Deacs.

Texts of the Week

“ESPN reporting tragedy at Kenan Stadium as concession vendors sell out of Brie and Chardonnay, thousands of distraught students calling their parents in tears” -Rand’s Dad, John

“Someone tell my why ND -4 when Clemson has no Shipley is not free money…Should be 14” -Jack Zucker at 11:57am Saturday

“This is why I don’t bet.” -Jack Zucker at 2:11pm Saturday

“Rand being on this text chat postgame has to be the worst salt in the wound imaginable” -Duke fan Kyle Mumma in the midst of recounting the history of Duke football not being able to win close games except the one on Thursday

“We can’t pay attention to Rand, he has his own weird agenda.” -Patrick Costello replying to Kyle’s message

“Are you alive?” -lots of different people asking Rand for proof of life after the Wake game

Hope you have a great Monday, and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.