Week 10 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Folks, we simply have to address the funniest thing we have seen in weeks - was Michigan sign-stealing-spy Connor Stalions on the Central Michigan sideline, in Central Michigan gear, scouting Michigan State in Week 1 of this season??? It certainly looks like it! Central Michigan is now investigating if the random goatee’d man seen on the sidelines is in fact Stalions, and CMU head Coach Jim McElwain seems to think it is. These pictures are hilarious, and we can’t believe this whole cheating scandal manages to get dumber by the day. The only logical next step is for pictures of this doofus upside down in a Batman costume to pop up at a Rutgers game - we give it a week. In this edition, we’re discussing men spitting on each other, New Jersey high schoolers' fashion, and predicting future FBI investigations, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

4 Week 10 Games to Watch

#23 Kansas State (6-2) @ #7 Texas (7-1): Texas -4.0, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Kansas State rolls into Austin riding a three-game win streak and beat their last two opponents - Texas Tech and Houston - by a combined 82-3. They’re doing this weird yet intriguing dual-QB system with Will Howard being the passing QB and freshman Avery Johnson being the runner. Texas is still without QB Quinn Ewers and must rely on second-string and spring game phenom Maalik Murphy to steer the ship. Last week he went 16/25 for 170 yds, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. A lot of that was due to short fields because of BYU turnovers and RB Jonathan Brooks is an animal. Texas cannot afford another loss if they have any hope of making it into the playoff, and for the second year in a row, Kansas State is loving that everyone is sleeping on them while they come out of nowhere to ruin seasons and make the Big 12 Championship if not outright win it. If Texas is truly, dearly, sincerely, undeniably back, they win this game. But they’ve also said they’re back since the Bush presidency and it doesn’t matter which one we’re referring to. Put your money where your mouth is Texas, you’ve got more talent on your scout team than Kansas State has had in its history. Don’t get outcoached and blow it like you’re prone to do.

Texas A&M (5-3) @ #10 Ole Miss (7-1): Ole Miss -3, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Both of these teams come into this game flawed, injured, dangerous, and in completely different spots when it comes to the vibes around each program. For Ole Miss, the Rebels are top-10 in the country and are still right in the thick of the SEC West race. For Texas A&M, a team loaded with talent has already lost 3 games, and boosters around the A&M program are allegedly making it known to the school that Jimbo Fisher’s $76.8M buyout will not be an issue if the Aggies continue to struggle down the stretch. Lane Kiffin has not yet lost to Fisher since Kiffin got to Ole Miss, and Lane is doing his usual trolling once again this week. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart seems to be a little banged up, but Dart has a ton of weapons, like WR Tre Harris and RB Quinshon Judkins, to get the ball to. Expect some high-caliber plays made by running backs and receivers, and a lot of sacks in this one. It may be for very different reasons, but both teams need this one badly.

#9 Oklahoma (7-1) @ #22 Oklahoma State (6-2): OU -5.5, O/U 62 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

It’s fitting that the last Bedlam game potentially ever comes with a lot of significance. After Oklahoma opted to leave the Big 12 for the SEC a few summers ago, it’s been decided Bedlam will end, at least for now. Oklahoma State has been quick to point the finger at the Sooners for ending this storied matchup that has been played every year since 1910, but regardless of the culprit, we hope Oklahoma State can go out on top here.

On Monday, former OSU QB and head coach Mike Gundy said, “Bosworth spit in my face and I spit in his. It was actually a rivalry.” Bosworth is of course the legendary Oklahoma linebacker from the 80’s and apparently has nothing better to do than star in Dr. Pepper commercials. Bosworth immediately fired back on Twitter and said, “Guess what Coach G..Bedlam is still a rivalry & BIG BROTHER still wants to whip lil brother’s ***..How abOUt we meet this Saturday at yOUr place…let’s say the 50 yard line so we can exchange pleasantries the old fashion way..FACE TO FACE.. I’ll see yOU there..BOOMER!” Alright, Brian, get your phone back from your child and grab a Ricola because we’d love to see a spitting battle between you and Gundy. If that isn’t feasible, we’d be disappointed with anything less than a full-on brawl and a Pokes win.

#5 Washington (8-0) @ #20 USC (7-2): Wash -3.5, O/U 76 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Washington has been skating on some thin ice since their big boy win against Oregon a few weeks ago. They’re still undefeated, but underwhelming victories against Arizona State and Stanford don’t inspire much confidence this is a playoff-caliber team. USC and all their defensive woes are certainly evident, but they still have QB Caleb Williams who can keep them in any game. This is the first of three straight-ranked matchups Washington has before their Apple Cup against Wazzu. Washington needs to get the train back on the tracks but doing it in LA is less than ideal. We still, and always will, refuse to take USC seriously until DC Alex Grinch is in the gulag, but this will be an absolute barnburner of a game between two of the best QBs in college football.

#14 LSU (6-2) @ #8 Alabama (7-1): Bama -3.0, O/U 60 - Saturday 7:45pm ET CBS

Do I really need to get you hyped up for this one? The game that every fan, NFL scout, and recruit has circled on their calendar. The rendition takes place this Saturday night in Tuscaloosa as LSU rolls into Alabammer to take on the Tide. It’s the most intriguing matchup we’ve had in this series since Joe Burrow came to town in 2019. Alabama continues to look better and better with each game they play, particularly on defense where Bama looks as elite as ever, but there are still big unanswered questions about the Tide’s ability to move the ball consistently. Inversely, LSU looks like it can score at will on anybody while also not being able to stop anybody on defense. Count us in to see how all of that turns out.

Last year, underdog LSU took down Alabama and knocked the Tide out of the playoff race by handing them their second loss, and the Tigers look to do the exact same thing on Saturday. QB Jayden Daniels is finally playing up to his physical potential and will be a big stress on Alabama’s linebackers to contain in the QB run game as they also have to be mindful of guys like WR Malik Nabers getting behind them in the middle of the field. For Alabama’s offense, per usual here in 2023, QB Jalen Milroe will need to connect on some big shots, likely to WR Jermaine Burton, to keep up in this game. Milroe is connecting on 60% of his passes that travel 20+ yards in the air this season, which is a remarkable stat for anybody, let alone a guy with significant accuracy issues. We’re starting to feel that this one could get pretty high scoring which would certainly favor LSU. If it doesn’t turn into a shootout, Bama definitely has the edge.

This is going to be an awesome matchup filled with NFL talent, but you already knew that. You don’t need us here, it’s LSU/Bama. We’re just hoping for a classic.

Tate’s prediction: LSU wins 31-29. See Tate’s Great Picks below.

Rand’s prediction: Bama wins 31-29. 2 birds with 1 stone: I get to fade noted Bama hater Tate and bet on Saban. Where do I sign?

8 More Games to Watch if You’re Psychopaths Like Us

#15 Notre Dame (7-2) @ Clemson (4-4): ND -2.5, O/U 46 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Another week, another what the hell did he just say Dabo presser. We here at 4th & Forever applaud Dabo for being unable to handle criticism and adversity as it provides endless content for us. On Monday night during his radio call-in show, some dude named Tyler from Spartanburg asked the Clemson head coach why they’re paying him $11.5 million to go 4-4 among a litany of other negative comments about him and the program. Dabo went full Karen during a five-minute-long rampage which we highly recommend you listen to. Dabo and the Clemson fanbase are not handling this whole losing thing well, and if neither one of them gets their act together soon, a future radio show might include a question from some dude named Dabo from Cabo.

Virginia Tech (4-4) @ #13 Louisville (7-1): Lou -9.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ACCN

In a few years, there will be another FBI investigation into Louisville. This time it won’t be for the strippers in the athlete dorms, the Adidas reps paying basketball recruits, their legendary basketball head coach getting extorted by his mistress, or their assistant basketball coach extorting their other head coach. Instead, it’ll be for bribing the ACC to make their schedule an absolute cupcake. If it seems like Louisville gets every important game at home, it’s because they do. Notre Dame and Duke were at home, along with their Thanksgiving weekend rivalry matchup against Kentucky, and now this game against a rebounding Hokie team. Louisville has 3 true road games this year, 2 neutral site matchups, and the rest are at home. We’re calling the Feds. Hokie High.

James Madison (8-0) @ Georgia State (6-2): JMU -5.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN2

We here at 4th & Forever are official supporters of James Madison Football’s quest for perfection despite the NCAA’s dumb rules that they are not eligible for postseason play (both their conference championship and any bowl game) due to the Dukes moving up from FCS two years ago. But we are also extremely intrigued by Georgia State’s surprising 6-2 start and find ourselves often rooting for the Panthers because we are Atlanta guys (well, Rand sorta is). Regardless, this is a big-time matchup in the Sun Belt that will go a long way in determining who comes out of the Eastern division of the conference since James Madison can’t. We’ve mentioned it before, but you should really start tuning into Sun Belt football this November, because there are a handful of teams fighting for the conference championship, and those teams are really good. This is a great 2nd TV game as you watch the Dawgs.

Iowa (6-2) @ Northwestern (4-4): Iowa -5.0, O/U 30.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET Peacock - Game played at Wrigley Field

Finally, our long national nightmare is over. No, Chick-fil-A did not bring back their peppermint milkshakes (yet), rather it was announced Iowa OC Brian Ferentz will not be returning in 2024. To jog your memory, Ferentz’s contract was reworked over the offseason which included stipulations that Iowa must average 25/ppg for him to be retained. Through 8 games, Iowa is averaging an inspiring 19.5 points/game. Sometimes under lame duck or interim coaches, players will rally behind them and start playing well so we’re interested to see if they light up the scoreboard this weekend for three whole touchdowns. Vegas doesn’t seem to believe in such a turnaround given the appallingly low O/U of 30.5. Interim AD Beth Goetz might want to consider a run for governor after making this move which met with glee from the entire state of Iowa, but dismay from the rest of the nation. It’ll be interesting to see if Brian’s nepotism enabler head coach Kirk Ferentz follows him out the door and the ramifications that’d have on the coaching carousel. We’re most interested to see if the Hawkeyes can top the Cubs highest scoring offensive performance from this past season where they hung 20 runs on the Red in Wrigley on August 1. If Vegas had a line on it, we’d take the Cubs.

#21 Kansas (6-2) @ Iowa State (5-3): Iowa State -2.5, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Kansas, coming off a huge victory against top-10 Oklahoma last week, will certainly beat lowly Iowa State on Saturday, right? Not so fast midget! The Cyclones come into the game as slight favorites over the Jayhawks, and while this certainly sounds crazy, Iowa State is tied for first in the Big 12 and is looking for a massive victory of its own. ISU head coach Matt Campbell is thought of as one of the best younger coaches in the sport, while everybody in the country would hire Kansas head coach Lance Leipold in a heartbeat if they had to make a coaching change. This one should be hard-fought and very fun, and it could mean a lot for the Big 12 championship race as we enter the final stretch of the season.

Miami (6-2) @ NC State (5-3): Mia -4.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Well, well, well, we have two coaches, two fanbases, and two programs that haven’t been able to win the big one or get over the hump since god made green apples. That’s an exaggeration because Miami won a national championship in 2001 but has been impressively mediocre since then, and if you get the green apples reference Rand will Venmo you a dollar. NC State hasn’t won anything of significance since Rand’s reincarnation in 1997 after being JP Morgan in his past life. State fans really, really don’t like when you bring up the fact they haven’t won an ACC Championship in football since 1979, a feat Wake, Duke, and UNC have all accomplished. Is this a game that gets either team over the hump? No, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction for two programs that need this more than a white girl needs her matcha latte.

Pac-12 After Dark

#16 Oregon State (6-2) @ Colorado (4-4): OSU -13.5, O/U 62.5 - Saturday 10:00pm ET ESPN

#19 UCLA (6-2) @ Arizona (5-3): UCLA -3.0, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 10:30pm ET FS1

Alright psychos, we have two Pac-12 After Dark matchups on Saturday night and they’re both very good. Folsom Field & Deion Sanders welcome a pissed-off Oregon State team that’s coming off a close loss to Arizona. Colorado CB Travis Hunter is fresh off two picks against UCLA and an upset win would crank up the Deion machine all over again. Meanwhile, Oregon State learned the hard way what happens when you play in the desert on Saturday night. It’ll be up to UCLA's pretty boy but underbite-toting QB Ethan Garbers to figure out this defense if they want to remain in the hunt for the Pac-12 Championship Game. We’ll be up for these two and hope you are too.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (8-0): The last three weeks have seen the Dawgs sleepwalk against Vanderbilt, a bye week, and the Dawgs obliterate its biggest rival in Florida. The next three weeks see the Dawgs play three top 20 teams in Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Feels like a good time to get back into breaking down some Dawgs matchups, doesn’t it? Let’s do it.

The best matchup of this game that every NFL scout under the sun will have their eyes on is Missouri’s passing attack vs. Georgia’s elite secondary. Led by receivers Luther Burden III (the best receiver in the SEC and a future first-round pick) and Theo Wease, Missouri comes in with the #3 passing offense in the SEC. Quarterback Brady Cook may not wow you with his arm or athleticism, but he has found ways to consistently get his playmakers the ball this season and has had the Tigers’ offense humming. While you might think that Mizzou has just picked on one-on-one coverage matchups with their elite receivers to get to this point, Cook and his receivers have been especially effective against defenses we typically attribute as “pass coverage” looks, such as Cover 3 looks, Quarters coverages. Cook is at the top of the SEC in efficiency against Cover 3 looks, and the concerning part about that is that Georgia has run more Cover 3 this year than we have in the past two years. The really intriguing thing, though, is that Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp are the best at disguising looks in college football - the Dawgs play almost entirely out of two high safety looks but run a multitude of coverages based around Matchup Zone concepts. It’ll be very interesting to see if we can bait Cook into believing that an option will be available to him, and that option quickly being snuffed out as soon as the ball is snapped. The Dawgs are elite at that, especially as games wear on and the staff has had time to adjust to an opponent’s game plan. And of course, Missouri has not yet played a secondary with talent anywhere near what they will face on Saturday. Kamari Lassiter, Tykee Smith, Javon Bullard, and Malaki Starks are surefire Sunday players, and the Dawgs secondary has been one the best in the country so far this season. Watching all of these future NFL players is going to be exhilarating this Saturday.

But there’s more to football than just elite receivers vs. elite defensive backs, and that’s where I expect the Dawgs to shine at home. Missouri’s offensive line has been one of the better groups in the SEC, but the Dawgs front 7 have really started to shine in recent weeks as younger guys like Jalon Walker, Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, and Fat Chris Smith have started to see the light. The thing about Missouri’s efficiency against pass coverages this season is that they have often had tons of time to throw. But once again, Missouri has not seen anything close to the talent that the Dawgs have up front. The Dawgs bizarrely rank 14th (dead last) in the SEC in red zone defense, but as the game settles in, I am expecting the young pups to start getting after Cook and making it very difficult for Mizzou’s offense to stay in rhythm in the passing game.

Since I mentioned Mizzou’s total passing offense is #3 in the league, it should probably be noted that Georgia is right ahead of them at #2 (and only closely trails #1 LSU). And unlike the matchup of Mizzou’s offense vs. Georgia’s defense, Missouri does not have the luxury of high-level players patrolling the back end of their defense. Missouri ranks 71st in the country in total pass defense, was carved up by the only good passing attack they’ve faced (LSU), and Carson Beck has thrown for 300+ yards in all 8 of his starts so far. Safe to say the Dawgs have the edge when on offense… at least until we get in the red zone, where we rank dead last in the SEC on offense as well. We will need to be efficient in finishing drives in this one because Missouri is the best team we have faced so far.

Overall, while I do think we win this game by two or more scores, this will be the hardest test the Dawgs have faced so far this season. Mizzou brings in a physical and well-coached team with a good front 7 on defense and truly elite playmakers on offense. This is the best opportunity we’ve had to prove that we are still the team to beat in college football, and I think we’re going to be ready to do it. The entire nation will be watching as they get ready for LSU/Bama, Sanford is going to be rocking, and I can’t wait. Dawgs win 37-17.

Wake Forest (4-4): The Deacs play TONIGHT in Durham against Duke at 7:30pm ET on ESPN. Duke is a 12.5-point favorite, and the O/U is set at 45. If you have any clue what will happen in this game, please report to your local Sheetz and buy a lottery ticket.

It wasn’t that long ago Duke was the toast of the CFB world after beating Clemson, hosting College GameDay against Notre Dame, and had every chain-donning New Jersey high schooler buying Duke snapbacks in bulk. In their first four games where they went 4-0, they averaged 37.3 points/game on offense and gave up a ridiculous 8.8 points/game on defense. In their last four games where they went 1-3, they’ve averaged 14.5 points/game on offense and allowed 21.5 points/game. Several different factors can be attributed to the recent rut: the increased level of competition with Notre Dame, NC State, Florida State, and Louisville, QB Riley Leonard’s ankle definitely isn’t healthy but he’s playing anyway, or simply a regression to the mean. Leonard’s last two starts coming back from his injury have not gone well, to say the least. He’s been good for 16/39 for 190 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 picks…combined. Duke still has a phenomenal defense, especially on the defensive line which is concerning for Wake’s shaky OL.

Wake is still rolling with QB Mitch Griffis for this game. It hasn’t been pretty, but it’s our best option. As Clawson noted in his Tuesday presser, Marucci was literally playing safety last season and a vast majority of the fall camp reps were between Griffis and Kern, who is still out for another week or two with an injury. Wake’s OL needs to protect Griffis as they did for Marucci against Pitt to have any chance of winning this game. Griffis was sacked 6 times last week and while that was against Florida State, it’s almost impossible to win with that. Wake needs to follow the blueprint they did against Pitt, which if we’re being honest, didn’t even work that well because Pitt knew we were going to run the ball and pass only when necessary. Keep the game close in the 4th quarter and give yourself a chance to win it. Deacs by a million.

Tate’s Great Picks (17-31)

Texas A&M (5-3) @ #10 Ole Miss (7-1): Ole Miss -3, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Ole Miss -3: This line opened at Ole Miss -4.5, which already seemed low, and then immediately shot all the way down to -3. That is certainly concerning, and smart bettors would probably stay away from this line given how weird it is. But if you are still reading my picks at this point, then you are not a smart bettor, and you should hammer Ole Miss. The Aggies and the Rebs are #1 and #2 in sacks, respectively, but I’d actually give the Rebs the edge here as A&M QB Max Johnson holds the ball for an eternity every time he steps back to throw. Word on the street is that Ole Miss QB Jaxon Dart is dinged up and may not be as mobile as he has been this year, but this game is in Oxford, the Rebs still have a ton to play for, and Jimbo literally never beats Ole Miss. Hammer the trap line.

#10 Oklahoma (7-1) @ Oklahoma State (6-2): OU -5.5, O/U 62 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Pick - Oklahoma State +5.5: We talked about it above, but here’s a quick recap that provides my reasoning for riding with the Cowboys here: This is the last Bedlam for the foreseeable future, Oklahoma State fans are as pissed at Oklahoma as ever, the game is in Stillwater, and Oklahoma has looked aggressively average for two straight weeks. Also, good people want Oklahoma State to win, and bad people want Oklahoma to win. You can’t argue with that type of statistic. Go Pokes.

Iowa (6-2) @ Northwestern (4-4): Iowa -5.0, O/U 30.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET Peacock - Game played at Wrigley Field

Pick - Game Total Under 30.5: C’mon man... I get the opportunity to bet an Iowa under and a Northwestern under at the same time? Did I die and wake up in Heaven? I’m not even going to break this one down - life is entirely too short to not bet this under.

Nebraska (5-3) @ Michigan State (2-6): Neb -3, O/U 34.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FS1

Pick - Nebraska -3: Michigan State’s players have all but literally quit at this point, while Nebraska has won three in a row and is still in the hunt for a Big Ten Championship appearance. Vegas might need to rethink this one. Put your mortgage on Nebraska, trust me, that never fails. Huskers covers with ease.

Wake Forest (4-4) @ Duke (5-3): Duke -12.5, O/U 44.5 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Game Total Under 44.5: Full disclosure here Deac fans, Rand alerted me to this O/U and I’m jumping all over it. Duke QB Riley Leonard is still clearly not 100% as we saw Duke get shut out by Louisville last weekend, and Wake’s defense is pretty good. On the other side, Duke’s defense remains very solid, and Wake’s offense… uhhhh… I’ll stop there. Both teams are on short weeks and I’m expecting this game to be ugly. Have fun at the game, Rand.

#14 LSU (6-2) @ #8 Alabama (7-1): Bama -3.0, O/U 60 - Saturday 7:45pm ET CBS

Pick - LSU ML: I already offered my score prediction above, but I simply would not be Tate Smillie if I didn’t make this pick in an official capacity. This is my favorite (non-UGA) game of every season, and I am really feeling an LSU upset in this spot. I think Alabama is absolutely the better team, and the game is in Tuscaloosa, but there is a scenario here where Jayden Daniels and the LSU get rolling early and become extremely difficult to stop, and even more difficult for the Jalen Milroe and the Alabama offense to keep up with. This is a huge spot for Brian Kelly’s early tenure in Baton Rouge, Daniels stands to make some serious money in this game, and LSU ain’t scared of no Crimson. LSU knocks the Tide out of playoff contention on Saturday night for the 2nd straight year.

OnlyRans (39-43)

Nebraska (5-3) @ Michigan State (2-6): Neb -3, O/U 34.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FS1

Pick - Nebraska -3: This is one of the ugliest bets I’ve ever taken this season but my logic is pretty simple. Michigan State is very bad and Nebraska is…decent? Maybe? Oh god, this is scary. Hide your children, cover your eyes, and follow me through the cornfield here.

Wisconsin (5-3) @ Indiana (2-6): Wis -9.5, O/U 45 - Saturday 12:00pm ET BTN

Pick - Wisconsin -9.5: The cornfield turned into a corn maze and now we’re officially lost. I’m sorry for bringing you here. We’ve got another Big 10 matchup between one team in the midst of an offensive overhaul (Wisconsin) and another that doesn’t even know what offense is (Indiana). Wisconsin got manhandled by Ohio State last weekend which is forgiven, while Indiana surprised everyone and gave Penn State a scare in Happy Valley. I think Penn State was hungover from their beating the previous week against Ohio State and didn’t take this Indiana team seriously. Wisconsin is still in the thick of the Big 10 West race and I think they get up for this one and beat down on an Indiana team that is last in the Big 10 in defending the rush - the one thing Wisconsin is better at than drinking beer.

Iowa (6-2) @ Northwestern (4-4): Iowa -5.0, O/U 30.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET Peacock - Game played at Wrigley Field

Pick - Game Total Under 30.5: Alright now we’re officially off the rails but out of principle, I have to take the under. There’s no fun in rooting for Northwestern’s backup QB to solve Iowa’s lockdown defense and I am certainly not rooting for Iowa’s backup QB Deacon Hill to lead the offense to more points than the Cubs scored runs in a game this year. Also, Deacon Hill has yet to comment that he is not named after the worst place to watch a football game on the planet. I will continue to operate under this assumption until he proves otherwise. For the uncultured, Deacon Hill is the hill behind one of Wake’s endzones where every local fifth grader and their mother run around screaming on wet grass for 3.5 hours. It’s a lovely experience. Trust me.

#5 Washington (8-0) @ #20 USC (7-2): Wash -3.5, O/U 76 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Pick - Game Total Over 76: On the complete flip side of the Iowa-NW under, I have to take this over. This is patently absurd, but it’s not illogical. USC’s defense is worse than their admissions department's credibility, and Washington’s offense is Lori Loughlin just looking to exploit it. Feed me the over.

#15 Notre Dame (7-2) @ Clemson (4-4): ND -2.5, O/U 46 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Pick - Notre Dame -2.5 and Game Total Under 46: Dabo takes up so much oxygen we didn’t even get to mention that there’s an actual game happening here. Notre Dame just lost their best receiving threat - who is of course a TE - to injury for the season. I’ll take the under because both defenses are suffocating and it’s in Death Valley where as I’ve painfully discussed, Hartman has never won. But Notre Dame is more battle-tested, has the better QB, a more consistent defense, and doesn’t have a coach who is about to get gag-ordered by his AD.

Miami (6-2) @ NC State (5-3): Mia -4.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Pick - NC State +4.5: As I’ve mentioned before, Carter-Finley is a very hard place to play at night (unless you’re Wake but we’ll table that for next week) and State might not have an offense, but they have a defense and that’ll carry them. The last time Miami was in this spot they got rocked by UNC and that loss is aging worse than a double bottle of Barefoot Moscato. I consider them the Iowa of the ACC and my sources are telling me Brian Ferentz might need a job next year. Iowa wins ugly and I expect State to too…or at least keep it under 5 points.

Texas A&M (5-3) @ #10 Ole Miss (7-1): Ole Miss -3, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - TAMU +3: Our resident SEC expert Tate did a great job of explaining in his picks why this is a trap line and still told you to take Ole Miss. Do I think Ole Miss will win? Do I think Jimbo can’t win the big one? Is Ole Miss at home and has the better offense? Yes, yes, yes, and yes. I am taking this for no other reason than to fade Tate because his picks are toxic. Gig ‘em.

Rapid Fire: Give me UCF-Cincy over 59.5 because both offenses put up points and both defenses are trash. UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee being back at full strength gives me irrational confidence here too. Let me have Kentucky -3.5 versus Mississippi State. These two teams are almost dead even statistically, but Kentucky has RB Ray Davis and the coaching advantage with Mark Stoops. Lastly, I like Stanford +13.5 against Washington State. Washington State has fallen apart in the past few weeks while Stanford has figured out that throwing for a bajillion yards is a recipe for success. Took the nerds this long to figure that out?

For my moneyline upsets of the week, give me Boston College ML and TCU ML. Did you watch Syracuse play last week? Famous last words but how are they favored here? TCU gets Texas Tech in Lubbock and generally, Vegas gives the home team 3 points on the line. So if this was played on a neutral field it’d be pick ‘em. I saw on Twitter that Texas Tech runs a Cover 3 defense and TCU is great at exploiting that. I have no idea what that means but I believe everything I read on the internet so it’s enough for me.

Where in the World Are We?

RF: For the second time this year, I am double dipping like my sisters at a Mexican restaurant and attending two college football games in the same week. Tonight, I will be in Durham for the Wake-Duke game watching a masterclass in offensive futility while freezing my ass off. On Saturday, I will be in much warmer Austin, TX for the Texas - Kansas State game. I have no rooting interest in the Texas game but just hope both teams have fun! Actually, scratch that. I want Texas to lose in brutal fashion so I can personally witness an entire fanbase meltdown.

TS: Ya boy will be in Athens with his good friend and Riverwood Baseball Hall of Famer Jalen Miller, to watch the NUMBER TWO Georgia Bulldogs take on Mizzou. If you’re watching on TV, we’ll be the ones in red barking LOUDLY at children and elderly Missouri fans.

Hope you have a great weekend, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.