Week 1 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. You know as well as anyone, there’s nothing we enjoy talking about more than College Football, which is why we started this newsletter and want to share our thoughts and opinions with you. You can expect game previews & recaps, betting picks, updates on CFB current events, and other random stuff we find enjoyable.

Week 1 was filled with a whole lot of nothing-burgers, but as tends to happen in college football, we had some fun and unexpected results. Colorado blew the doors off of their preseason expectations, shocking 2022 National Championship participant #17 TCU 45-42. By the way, Travis Hunter is the best player in college football. FSU absolutely demolished LSU in the second half, running the Tigers out of the building and making Head Coach Brian Kelly publicly admit they’re not as amazing as the Georgia Bulldogs. Alabama may have found their quarterback, while Ohio State’s offense looked incredibly uninspiring.

Clemson, meanwhile, may have a real problem, losing to Duke 28-7 (what the f***?). Dabo’s unwillingness to use the transfer portal is written off by Dabo as we don’t need transfers, we roll with our guys. It’s very admirable to say that in June when you’re recruiting but how much would a Clemson booster pay WR Keon Coleman (more below) in NIL to have him right now? Clemson hung old QB DJ Uiagalelei OUT TO DRY and maybe he wasn’t the problem. Week 1 of the (over)hyped new OC Garrett Riley & QB Cade Klubnik pairing resulted in 209 passing yards, 4.9 yards/completion, 7 points, 1 interception, and 2 goal-line fumbles. Yowza.

Rand’s 8 Thoughts on Week 1

ACC expansion finally happened last Friday with the league officially adding SMU, Cal, and Stanford effective next year. Meh. Whatever. I’m not ecstatic that I’ll be stressing over a Wake - Cal basketball game on a Tuesday night in January at 11pm ET but this was a necessary move for the ACC to ensure conference stability (whatever that means these days) when Clemson and FSU inevitably depart for the SEC in 10 years. SMU isn’t taking any TV revenue for the first nine years, while Cal & Stanford will get as little as 30% for the first few years and become full revenue members by 2034. The remainder of their shares (roughly $30 mil/yr) will be pooled and paid out to ACC teams in a performance-based revenue distribution model. Shrug. Let’s talk football!

Florida State put their money where their mouth is by annihilating LSU, especially in the second half. WR Keon Coleman transferred from Michigan State over the summer and hauled in 9 catches for 122 yards and 3 TDs against his home state team who never offered him out of high school. 6-foot-7 WR Johnny Wilson had a comparably pedestrian 7 receptions for 104 yards. QB Jordan Travis skyrocketed up Heisman favorites boards going 23/31 for 342 yds, 4 TDs, but one awful pick. Ideally, I would’ve liked to see more production out of RB Trey Benson (12 carries for 47 yards) and future top-10 NFL pick DE Jared Verse, but he attracts so much attention from OLs that it’s hard to judge him purely off statistics. Florida State looked like a top 5 team on Sunday night. Let’s see if they can replicate that performance in 3 weeks @ Clemson.

Elsewhere in the ACC, N.C. State survived UConn on Thursday night 24-14 but didn’t seem to find a reliable target at receiver which was a concern coming into the season. UConn is much improved since coach Jim Mora got to town last year, but not an inspiring offensive performance from the Pack with Sam Hartman & Notre Dame coming to Raleigh next week. Boston College looked even worse than last year by losing 27-24 at home to Northern Illinois. No need to pull the receipts of the over 5.5 total wins for BC I may or may not have told you to take in our first newsletter. Props to Louisville for coming from 15 down to beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Miami proved they have a pulse by beating Miami (OH) 38-3 but former NFL Draft darling QB Tyler Van Dyke threw for a measly 201 yds on 17/22 with 1 TD and 1 interception.

Unsettling scenes unfolded in Charlotte as a grown man bathed himself in mayo, two other men had a mayo-eating competition, oh, and Carolina beat UofSC handedly. Credit where credit is due - I can confirm QB Drake Maye is still very good (minus those two picks) and will keep them in every game they play this year, while their defense sacked USC QB Spencer Rattler 9 times. Rattler still had an efficient game with 353 yards on 30/39 passing and no turnovers, but USC couldn’t convert on 3rd or 4th downs (4-18 combined) or run the ball to take some pressure off their OL and Rattler with a whopping -2 rushing yards. UNC has App State coming to town next weekend, a matchup they famously won 63-61 last year after giving up 40 (!!) fourth-quarter points. In theory, South Carolina is too talented to fall flat as they did on Saturday, but that won’t matter if their offensive line is this inconsistent.

Ohio State…WOOF. You’re playing rudderless Indiana with two NFL WRs in Emeka Egbuka & Marvin Harrison Jr. who combined to haul in 5 catches for 34 yards. New QB Kyle McCord looked average at best and backup QB Devin Brown came in for one whole series only to go 1 for 3 for -2 passing yards. Ohio State needs to figure out their offense quickly before their Week 4 matchup @ Notre Dame. Their defense under second year DC Jim Knowles looks respectable but there’s far too much talent on this team for performances like this.

Be on the lookout for UCLA this year as it seems head coach Chip Kelly found his quarterback in 5-star Dante Moore. UCLA was in a tight one against Coastal Carolina with QB Ethan Garbers behind center. After a few three-and-outs and two picks, Garbers was pulled in favor of Moore who promptly led a touchdown drive and threw a 62-yard TD later in the game. Transfer RB Carson Steele (13 carries for 76 yards) and WR J. Michael Sturdivant (5 catches for 136 yards and 1 TD) provide Moore with star power at skill positions while the defense is solid. I think UCLA is going to fly under the radar a little bit with their manageable schedule but if Moore lives up to even 3/4 of his potential, UCLA could cause some havoc in the loaded Pac-12 this year. Please note how my co-author Tate did not mention the Bruins in his Pac-12 wrap-up…

If you need a new job, UCF is probably hiring a new social media coordinator after their football twitter account posted this graphic while they were beating Kent State. If you don’t get the context just look up what happened at Kent State in 1970. I’m not making fun of those tragic events, but I will make fun of Michigan acting like something tragic happened to head coach Jim Harbaugh. On their first offensive play, Michigan held up 4 fingers (Harbaugh’s jersey number at Michigan) to ‘honor’ Harbaugh who wasn’t at the game as he is serving a self-imposed four-game suspension. He is perfectly healthy, literally watched the game from his offensive coordinator’s basement. God Michigan is insufferable.

Being a Nebraska fan must be brutal after the Cornhuskers blew a late lead on Thursday night against Minnesota, and QB Jeff Sims threw an incomprehensibly horrible interception that led to Minnesota’s game-winning field goal. Nebraska is now 2-14 in one-possession games over their last 25 games. Nebraska might be fine long-term under new coach Matt Rhule, but heartbreaking losses to…Minnesota… is cruel a reminder to their fanbase that is still reminiscing on their 1990’s heydays. Sidenote: I think it’s hilarious because I have no respect for Nebraska and their program for their fake sell-out record, rampant steroid use in the 1990’s, resistance to enforcing basic academic standards, and fanbase who deliriously think they should be Bama. Keep shucking Huskers!

Tate’s 8 Thoughts on Week 1

We’ve obviously got to reset our expectations for Colorado, but let’s not get too carried away. The Buffs have some absolute dudes in WR/CB Travis Hunter, RB Dylan Edwards, and QB Sheduer Sanders. That type of top-end talent can keep you in a lot of games, but Colorado still has some glaring issues on both the offensive and defensive lines. Sanders was sacked 4 times, and the Buffs averaged only 1.6 yards per carry. Defensively, Colorado gave up 262 rushing yards, a number that could have been a lot higher if new TCU offensive coordinator Kendall Briles didn’t get so pass-happy in the 2nd half. This Colorado team will be really fun to watch, but let’s pump the brakes just a little bit. The Buffs still have to play Nebraska, @ Oregon, and USC this month.

Uhhh… LSU… what was that? LSU came into this game with massive hype as the #5 team in the country, with SEC and National Championship expectations, and as the favorite to win this matchup against FSU. As Rand mentioned, FSU definitely looked really good, but there is essentially zero excuse for a team as talented as LSU to look as bad it did in the 2nd half. This is a major setback for Brian Kelly’s 2nd year in Baton Rouge, and while it was just Week 1, it’s hard to envision the team we saw last night withstanding the rest of its schedule to come anywhere close to meeting its expectations. QB Jayden Daniels continued last year's struggles in the downfield passing game, the right side of the offensive line got abused all game, and LSU’s secondary might be really, really bad. Not good LSU, not good at all.

The Big 12 took some toughhhh L’s this week. We all saw TCU lose as a 20-point favorite against Colorado, but two other Texas-based Big 12 teams got upset in pretty brutal fashion as well. Baylor came into Saturday’s game as a 27.5-point favorite against Texas State - a program that has been one of the FBS’ worst teams for a few years in a row now - and lost outright by 11 at home. To make matters worse, QB Blake Shapen will be out for the next 2-3 weeks and Baylor welcomes Utah, LIU, and Texas to Waco during that span. Texas Tech took an odd road trip to Wyoming where Tech was favored by 13.5 points, and after scoring the first 17 points of the game, the Red Raiders let the Cowboys come back and force the game into double-overtime, where Wyoming would eventually win 35-33. Not a great look for the Big 12 in Week 1.

Alternatively, just about everybody in the Pac-12 looked great, as the conference improved to 13-0 on the year after Oregon State’s Sunday win (where Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei threw 5 touchdowns). The top of the conference looked great with USC putting up another 60 burger, Oregon dropping 81 (!!), Washington beating a really solid Boise State team by 37, and Utah, without its starting quarterback and best-receiving target, beating Florida like a drum. Even some of the lower-tier Pac-12 teams looked pretty impressive this weekend. We’ve talked about it before, and it’s looking like we’re right - this final Pac-12 season is going to be filled with good-to-great teams, really exciting offenses, and tremendous QB play. Watch as much Pac-12 as you can this year, because this will be the last time we see some of these matchups for quite a while.

Alabama’s quarterback concerns may not be such a big deal after watching Jalen Milroe this weekend. Of course, there’s the caveat that it was just Middle Tennessee State, but Milroe looked really impressive, and considering another QB didn’t even get into the game until garbage time, it seems pretty clear to me that this QB battle is settled (for now, at least). This is a tremendous development for Alabama who heads into a gargantuan matchup against a Top 10 Texas team next week.

The SEC may have some intriguing division races this year, with some of the dark horse teams looking very impressive in Week 1. In the East, Tennessee looks like they may not miss much of a beat after an 11-2 season last year, while Kentucky looks to have shored up their struggles at offensive line that held them back last year, while transfer QB Devin Leary looked impressive. In the West, Texas A&M’s offense seems to be much improved under new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, and at Ole Miss, QB Jaxon Dart appears much more comfortable while the defense seems like it might actually have the depth it takes to not fall off a cliff in the second half of the season. History tells us we’re probably in for yet another Alabama vs. UGA matchup in the SEC Championship, but there are several teams in the league that have top-10 potential this year.

Watch the QB situation at Oklahoma. While current starter Dillon Gabriel was very impressive on Saturday, many think it may only be a matter of time before 5-star freshman Jackson Arnold takes over. The Sooners beat Arkansas State 73-0 (and made their coach cry), so Arnold got plenty of time. And boy oh boy, did he impress. Arnold went 11-11 for 114 yards and a TD through the air and added 39 yards and another TD on the ground. This kid is a future first-rounder, and may already be ready to take this Oklahoma team to the next level. Keep an eye on this one.

But Florida… HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA It was just one game on the road against a very good Utah team, but this Florida group might be the worst I have ever seen in my lifetime. I spent my Thursday evening experiencing unimaginable joy watching Florida give Utah 7 points when they had two #3’s on the field on a punt return, when they committed false start after false start, and when their best receiver dropped an easy pass resulting in a Utah INT. It is just so, so glorious. This team will likely have 3 losses by the time September is over and will have to play Georgia, LSU, and Florida State later in the season. Real rough time in the Swamp

Holding Ourselves Accountable

OnlyRans: Last week: 4-2 - Season Record: 6-4

Rice +35.5: Lost 37-10 @ Texas

Wyoming +14: Beat Texas Tech 35-33 in double overtime at home

Penn State -20.5: Beat West Virginia 38-15

Tennessee -28: Beat Virginia 49-13 in Nashville

Old Dominion +15.5: Lost 36-17 @ Virginia Tech

Ohio State -30: Beat Indiana 23-3

If more of you would blindly trust me with your money you’d all be rich right now! The Red Raiders were in fact not ready to play as Wyoming scored the second-biggest upset of the day after Colorado. Penn State & Tennessee messed around for a while but ended up demolishing West Virginia and Virginia respectively. Texas decided to kick field goals against Rice all game but still ended up winning by a healthy margin. Old Dominion committed 3 turnovers, forced none, and decided to punt the ball down 21 points in the 4th with less than 2 minutes to go on 4th & 2. Bold play call there Coach Rahne. See table above for Ohio State thoughts.

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 2-4 - Season Record: 4-6

Tennessee -28: Beat Virginia 49-13 in Nashville

Boise State @ Washington O 58.5: Washington won 56-19

South Carolina ML: South Carolina lost 31-17

South Alabama +6.5: South Al lost 37-17

ODU +16.5: Lost 36-17 @ Virginia Tech

Clemson -13: oh god

Your boy has been aggressively mediocre in Weeks 0 and 1, batting .400 on official picks. Much like last week, the day started hot with Tennessee smoking Virginia and Washington/Boise State flying past the over in the 3rd quarter. But I didn’t quite anticipate that South Carolina’s offensive line would be the biggest piece of dog**** I’ve ever seen, getting sacked NINE TIMES. South Alabama fought hard but couldn’t score in the 4th quarter, and as Rand mentioned, ODU punting on 4th and 2 down by 21 with 2 minutes left made me want to throw my remote directly through the TV. Clemson looked like absolute horse crap against Duke, which really just put a hamper on my betting weekend. I swear to all that is holy that I will not, in my life, ever bet on Clemson again.

I totally understand if you’re skeptical on following any of my bets as we move forward, but here’s one thing I’d like to point out: One of my favorite CFB writers/media personalities, Tom Fornelli, put some bets in this weekend. This is how it went for him. Now I’m not trying to make excuses, but this is hard to do early in the season. We’re dealing with teams filled with teenagers, and we don’t get preseason games or anything of the like. This will improve as we move along, and that is my promise to you.

Wake & Georgia

UGA: It only took one game for half of the Georgia fanbase to start calling for offensive coordinator Mike Bobo’s job - a game that saw Georgia put up 559 yards of offense with multiple starters out. The Dawgs started slow, and the offensive line surprisingly struggled to get a consistent push in the run game for much of the first half. The first half was the worst half I’ve ever seen Sed Van Pran play, Oscar Delp ruined some plays on the edge by whiffing on some blocks, and the rest of the OL was heavily inconsistent in the first half. The struggles were much more about execution than they were about Bobo.

Carson Beck went 21/31 for nearly 300 yards and a touchdown and added another TD on the ground. How did many UGA fans react? That’s right, calling for his job. Kirby disagrees with that assessment.

In all honesty, it was a bit disappointing to see the Dawgs offense be a bit out of rhythm in the first half, but I’m not sure how anyone could expect it to be humming on all cylinders considering we’re breaking in a new QB, and were missing two top running backs and two top receivers. Freshman running back Rod Robinson impressed, transfer receivers Dominic Lovett and Rara Thomas both made big plays, and Brock Bowers looked as ridiculous as ever. The offense has plenty of time to start gelling considering how soft the schedule is in September - calm the f*** down.

Oh and by the way, last week I told you to watch out for walk-on Mekhi Mews at wide receiver. Well, Mews started at both punt and kick return and had 3 catches for 75 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown. 125 all-purpose yards in his first game as a full-time contributor - Mews is the real deal.

Defensively, I really think this group has the potential to be an all-time great unit. Of course it was just UT Martin, but the defensive line looked to be as good as expected, the linebackers are absolutely elite, and safeties Javon Bullard and Malaki Starks are about to start getting tons of national hype for being easily the best duo in college football. It’s going to be hard writing this segment about the Dawgs’ defense each week for a while, because this unit is going to abuse the next few teams they play. At this point, I’m just going to be rooting for shutouts to see if this can be a statistically legendary defense. UT Martin scored (ughhh) with 5 minutes left in the game on a crazy one-handed catch over a freshman DB, and it was great coverage. Frustrating. I don’t want ANY MORE POINTS GIVEN UP THIS MONTH. Let’s go demolish Ball State next week.

Wake: There’s no point in overreacting to Week 1 - unless you’re a Georgia fan because everyone needs to be fired - with Wake taking care of business by beating FCS foe Elon 37-17 on Thursday night, but Wake is 1-0 and did not knock themselves out of playoff contention. In all seriousness, we only get 13 gamedays so even though it was Elon, football is football is football and analysis must be shared! QB Mitch Griffis (19-30 for 329 yds and 3 TDs) looked pretty good aside from his pick-six in the third quarter. He sometimes held the ball too long and got sacked 4 times, but that’s expected when you’re making your 2nd career start. Our run game left much to be desired in terms of efficiency and effectiveness given the level of competition, but backup RB Demond Claiborne (13 carries for 70 yds and 1 TD) is that dude. Also, feel free to buy stock in WR Wesley Grimes (3 catches for 76 yds and 1 TD) who is a perfect complement to Jahmal Banks who led the team in receiving with 108 yds and this ridiculous TD catch. Wake kicked 3 field goals in the red zone which needs to be cleaned up moving forward but overall, Wake looked decent in game #1 with Mitch. Counterpoint: I expect to win every game 63-0 and won’t be happy until we do.

Elon went three-and-out in 6 of their first 7 drives and the one that they managed to get a first down, they threw an interception in the endzone. That’s exactly what you wanted to see right out of the gates this season and the defense delivered. Wake’s best LB Chase Jones did not play but should be back next week as should DB Caelen Carson who left the game at halftime. There was one missed assignment that led to a 49 yd rushing TD for Elon and they went 3-3 of 4th down conversions but when you have 4 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, 10 points against, and held the mighty Phoenix to 2-16 on third down it’s hard to nitpick. Get healthy and ready for Vanderbilt on Saturday.

Texts of the Week

“Smell that crispy fall air this morning boys? The Deacs are fuckin back baby!!” -Sam Biermann at 9:18am on Thursday

“Kirby might shoot someone during the break.” - Ben Diamond

“These boys have been eating Fancy Nancy at Chicken Salad Chick and now they are soft as f***.” - Alex Platt as UGA’s OL struggled in the first half

“TCU is the worst football team I have ever seen.” - Sam Weinbach, 12:33pm

“TCU is the best football team I have ever seen.” - Sam Weinbach, 12:35pm

“I wish we had a handsome and fit coach like Coach Prime, instead we have a fat bozo who has never won anything.” - Alex Sztejenberg discussing Kirby Smart, who famously lost to 4-8 South Carolina in 2019

“That UNC fight song is incredibly stupid. ‘I’m a Tar Heel born I’m a Tar Heel bred when I die I’m a Tar Heel dead.’ They’re trying to hit a word count on an essay with that.” - Jack Richter

Hope you had a great Labor Day and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

Thanks for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project.

Did this get forwarded to you and think we are hilarious geniuses? Fill out the Google Form below to get added to the distribution list. If you hate us and/or this and don’t want to subscribe anymore, well that’s awkward because one of us sees you at least once a year, but just report us as spam or something…or click the link below.

4th & Forever Subscription Settings

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through our good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.