Week 1 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. You know as well as anyone, there’s nothing we enjoy talking about more than College Football, which is why we started this newsletter and want to share our thoughts and opinions with you. You can expect game previews & recaps, betting picks, updates on CFB current events, and other random stuff we find enjoyable.

Yeah yeah, we did the whole “WE MADE IT, WE’RE BACK” thing for Week 0. But let’s be honest, how boring was Notre Dame vs Navy? How many Vandy games are you really going to watch this year? (The answer is at least 1 more since they both play Georgia & Wake this year, which means they’ll have a common opponent come playoff seeding time). How much longer are you actually going to read our emails if we keep talking about UMass? Well, you’re in luck, because we’re ACTUALLY BACK BABYYYY. Without further ado, let’s get to it!

5 Week 1 Games to Watch

#5 LSU vs #8 FSU (Orlando): LSU -2.5, O/U 56.5 - Sunday 7:30pm ET ABC

If it weren’t for the game below, LSU-FSU would be the pick for the matchup with the most annoying fanbases. However, this game has the potential to be the game of the year. Both teams have national championship aspirations, returning quarterbacks, and star-laden defenses. Florida State won on a walk-off blocked extra point in the Superdome last year, spoiling LSU Head Coach Brian Kelly’s debut. Both teams got better as the season went on, won their bowl games, and heard all off-season about how good they are supposed to be. Rand’s Hot Take: One of these teams will finish the season unranked.

LSU star defensive tackle, Maason Smith, is suspended for this game because he signed autographs one month before NIL became legal two summers ago. LSU was so desperate to have him eligible for this game, they called their week 2 opponent, Grambling State, and asked to move their matchup to Week 0. Don’t cry foul LSU fans, in the summer of 2021, everyone in the country knew NIL was going to be legal on July 1, 2021, and he still did the autograph signing in June. Why couldn’t Smith serve his one-game suspension last year? Glad you asked, Mom! In order to serve a suspension you must be medically cleared. Smith was still under investigation but blew out his knee in the season opener last year….against Florida State…celebrating a tackle. We love this sport.

#21 North Carolina vs South Carolina (Charlotte): UNC -2.5, O/U 64.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

What is this game? The Battle for ‘Carolina’!? No, UNC is the real Carolina and UofSC can’t even shake the misconception they’re not the team in Los Angeles. A historic ACC rivalry reborn?! No, they both have other main rivals and have only played 5 other times this century. A matchup of future NFL quarterbacks, unknown entities everywhere else, but should be a fun and evenly matched game sponsored by mayonnaise? That’s the one!

Drake Maye is one of the best QBs in the country which is fantastic, but the rest of the offense has a lot to prove. Former offensive coordinator Phil Longo took his talents to Madison, while new OC Chip Lindsey promises to run the ball more - but color us skeptical. As of writing, stud WR Tez Walker (transfer from Kent State) isn’t eligible because of NCAA transfer rules, but both running backs return after up and down seasons last year. 4 of 5 offensive lineman return which sounds good in theory except that they were atrocious at protecting Golden Arm last year (40 sacks allowed, good for 3rd worst in the ACC), but Maye makes up for it with his legs. Give credit where credit is due, as that’s an improvement from 2021 where they were worst in the ACC allowing 49 sacks. Keep in mind in 2021 they returned their entire offensive line from the year before, had a star QB in Sam Howell on preseason Heisman watch lists, and were a trendy ACC Champion dark horse pick. Sound familiar? Note: UNC went 6-7 that year.

Florida @ #14 Utah: Utah -4.5, O/U 44 - Thursday 8:00pm ET ESPN

For betting purposes, we would not touch this game as Utah’s QB Cam Rising and top target Brant Kuithe are not likely to play with injuries. That being said, Florida is going to one of the toughest home environments in Rice-Eccles Stadium which will be jumping and blacked out… color scheme-wise, not alcohol-related. Florida is turning to QB Graham Mertz to run the offense after his very underwhelming three-year tenure at Wisconsin. Running back Trevor Etienne and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall are dynamite, but their revamped defense is going to need to make plays because we don’t think Mertz can win this game himself.

Georgia isn’t the only team going for the three-peat this year, as Utah has the chance to be the first team to lose three straight Rose Bowls since 2010-2012 Wisconsin. We had to throw that jab in there because there really isn’t anything else to nitpick about Utah. Kyle Whittingham is likely the most underappreciated coach in the country, they beat USC and Caleb Williams twice last year, and their defense is always nails. The aforementioned health of their two best players will limit this team's ceiling, but no team ever looks forward to having to play Utah. This game should be entertaining even if not particularly close.

Boise State @ #10 Washington: Washington -14.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

While we will admit that the Chris Peterson Bowl has the potential to get out of hand, we’re extremely intrigued. Washington returns 2022’s NCAA passing leader in Michael Penix Jr., along with its top 3 receivers in Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’lynn Polk. The Huskies will be missing top RB Cameron Davis for the season, but this passing offense looks to be absolutely electric once again.

On the Boise State side, returning quarterback Taylen Green looks to be one of the most exciting players west of the Mississippi, and Boise closed the 2022 season on a heater winning 8 of their last 10 games. Washington has some unanswered questions in the front 7, while Boise State has some major questions in the secondary. This one could have some offensive firepower, we definitely recommend keeping this one on your radar.

South Alabama @ #24 Tulane: Tulane -6.5, O/U 52 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ESPNU

You didn’t think you’d get through this email without Tate ranting about South Al, did you? Get used to it. This is simply an elite matchup, an absolute banger of a game. If Tate had to rank the top 5 Group of 5 teams this year, these two teams would certainly be in it.

Tulane is coming off of a 12-2 season, an AAC title, a Cotton Bowl victory over Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and USC, and returns both NFL-bound quarterback Michael Pratt and a top coach in CFB in Willie Fritz. South Alabama is coming off of a 10-2 regular season that included a 1-point loss @ UCLA, and a 4-point loss to eventual Sun Belt Champion Troy. This team was 5 points away from going 12-0 last year, returns its (really good) starting quarterback in Carter Bradley, two best receivers in Devin Voisin and Caullin Lacy, and arguably the best running back in the Sun Belt in La’Damian Webb. This is as good of a G5 game as you’re going to get - tune in!

 Wake & Georgia

UGA: “Somehow, a fat bozo and a drunk midget created the greatest college football dynasty of all time.” - Alex Sztejenberg. 17 words that express the sentiments of the entire Bulldog Nation. Fat Bozo Kirby Smart will, of course, need to replace his legendary drunk midget quarterback with undergraduate Stetson Bennett off to the NFL, and they’ll look to do so with Carson Beck under the helm in 2023. All signs indicate that Beck is more than ready heading into his 4th year in the program. The Dawgs will likely field their most impressive group of wide receivers in school history, and of course, Brock Bowers is back for his third and final year. The offensive line is going to be mauling people once again, and despite some injuries at RB (including former 5-star sophomore Branson Robinson out for the season), this Dawgs offense looks to have the opportunity to break school records.

Fun note: look out for walk-ons Cash Jones (the whitest running back in America) and new Dawgs midget Mekhi Mews (WR) - these guys are expected to contribute, have had huge fall camps, and are really fun to watch.

Defensively, I mean, do I really need to break it down? They’re gonna be absolutely filthy yet again. The DL may not have a single difference maker like they’ve had the past few years in Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis,and Devonte Wyatt, but they return a ton of experience and talent. Veterans Nazir Stackhouse, Warren Brinson and Zion Logue have the opportunity to turn themselves into high draft picks, and youngsters Mykel Williams (future top 10 pick), “Fat Chris” Miller, and Jordan “Big Baby” Hall look to breakout in a big way. With both starting inside linebackers Smael Mondon and Jamon Dumas-Johnson earning preseason All-SEC honors, the linebacker group looks to be the best in college football - as does the duo of Malaki Starks and Javon Bullard at safety. While the 2nd corner spot opposite Kamari Lassiter (First Team All-SEC) has yet to be determined, there are currently three former 5 Stars battling for the spot - they’ll be fine there. The Dawgs defense is going to be nasty as hell once again.

Wake Forest: GAMEDAY BABY GAMEDAY! Wake made some massive offseason moves by renaming historic Truist Stadium to Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, but don’t let the corporate name deceive you, it’s still the hardest place to play in college football (don’t fact-check me on that). They also added some LED rave lights to the stadium and opened a new football complex which is legitimately one of the best facilities in the country. With hurricane Idalia going south of Winston-Salem, it should be a fun atmosphere against the mighty Elon Phoenix Thursday night in front of a sold-out crowd. No, really…the game is a sellout.

Losing WR Donavon Greene for most, if not the entire season absolutely sucks. He has been virtually unguardable whenever he’s on the field and was primed for a massive breakout year with A.T. Perry off to the NFL. However, my expectations for the season don’t change with this news. Wake’s WR room is one of the deepest in the country and I have complete faith in the guys behind Greene. Wake has three returning WRs who had 500+ receiving yards last year. Taylor Morin (9 TDs last year) & Ke’shawn Williams make up the best slot receiver tandem in the country, while Jahmal Banks (9 TDs) will hold down the outside. WR Horatio Fields is a name to remember after missing all of last year with an injury. Tennessee transfer WR Walker Merrill was a very nice addition and looked good in fall camp, while former 4-star WR Wesley Grimes is probably the most talented and hyped of the three. 4th-year redshirt sophomore QB Mitch Griffis will be just fine back there.

OnlyRans

Ohio State @ Indiana: Ohio State -30 O/U 59.5- Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Rand’s Pick - Ohio State -30: Thirty points is a massive number to cover but hear me out. Ohio State ‘settled’ their QB competition by naming Kyle McCord their starting QB, but backup Devin Brown will play. Their wide receivers could start in the NFL right now, and I expect them to throw it around with both QBs, even in garbage time, to help determine who should run the offense for the rest of the year.

Virginia v Tennessee (Nashville): Tennessee -28 O/U 56 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Rand’s Pick - Tennessee -28: Virginia has to travel to Nashville to play a ‘neutral’ site game against Tennessee and their fast-paced offense. Tennessee QB Joe Milton has game experience coming from Michigan two years ago, beat Clemson in the Orange Bowl last year, and has the strongest arm in college football. I wouldn’t be surprised if the final score is 52-3.

Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech -15.5 O/U 47.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Rand’s Pick: Old Dominion +15.5 & if you’re feeling risky take the ODU money line. Virginia Tech lost to Old Dominion last year 20-17 in Norfolk. If you’re not convinced yet, Virginia Tech went 3-9 last year, never scored more than 29 points in a game, and returns the same shitty quarterback Grant Wells!

West Virginia @ Penn State: Penn State - 20.5 O/U 50.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC/Peacock

Rand’s Pick - Penn State -20.5: As you saw in Monday’s newsletter, Penn State has NFL talent at almost every position, West Virginia has been irrelevant for 5+ years and their head coach might not have his job come October 1. 100k+ fans in Beaver Stadium at night in a rivalry game? Give me Penn State and the points.

Texas Tech @ Wyoming: Texas Tech -14 O/U 50.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET CBS

Rand’s Pick - Wyoming +14: Texas Tech got a lot of offseason hype about being a dark horse Big 12 champion pick. Maybe the hype is legit, but their QB Tyler Shough is always injured, and Laramie is a tough place to play, especially at night in the season opener. Wyoming has one of the best defenses in the Mountain West returning 10 of 11 starters and has proven offensive playmakers and return QB Andrew Peasley. The Red Raiders better show up ready to play.

Rice @ Texas: Texas -35.5 O/U 59 - Saturday 3:30pm ET FOX

Rand’s Pick - Rice +35.5: Even with this game being in Austin, 35 points is a gargantuan number to cover. Texas has a lot of hype but hasn’t delivered on it since Vince Young pranced into the endzone against USC in 2006. I expect Texas to pull their starters sooner than a team normally would in a season opener as they have a date with Alabama in Tuscaloosa next weekend. Rice brings in JT Daniels to play QB who was formerly a 5-star recruit and has stops at USC, Georgia, and West Virginia. Rice is entering the American Athletic Conference this year and will probably play Daniels the entire game. Backdoor cover alert!

Tate’s Eight

Virginia v Tennessee (Nashville): Tennessee -28 O/U 56 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Tate’s Bet - Tennessee -28: Now I’m certainly not a big believer in Tennessee’s defense in 2023, but this Virginia offense might be bad bad. Virginia looks like possibly the worst team in the ACC, and as we all know, Tennessee’s offense is built to light you up if you’re not ready. I’m with Rand here - I’d probably still be betting this if the line was at -40.

#21 UNC vs South Carolina (Charlotte): UNC -2.5, O/U 64.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Tate’s Bet - South Carolina ML: It is finally time for me to be proven right about Spencer Rattler. I’m still a believer, and Rattler lighting it up to end the 2022 season has reinvigorated my spirit. This is an awesome QB matchup, but Rattler has more proven help with All-SEC WR Juice Wells and Arkansas transfer Trey Knox at TE. The edge on defense has to go to South Carolina here considering UNC’s defense has been the college football version of the Hindenburg disaster for the past few years. I’m all over the Cocks this weekend.

South Alabama @ #24 Tulane: Tulane -6.5, O/U 52 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ESPNU

Tate’s Bet - South Alabama +6.5: I won’t go too far into this since we already broke it down earlier, but this is going to be a dogfight. One thing that’s pushing me toward South Al here is that not only was this defense one of the best run-defending units in the country last year, but this is without a doubt the best safety duo (and hell, just the best secondary) in the G5. Good at stuffing the run paired with an elite secondary? Sign me up. I’ll be sprinkling some South Al ML juice as well, but I’ll stick with South Alabama +6.5 as the official pick.

Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech: Virginia -15.5 O/U 47.5 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

Tate’s Bet - ODU +15.5: Virginia Tech has lost to ODU outright twice in their last three matchups, and Virginia Tech’s offense is going to be big-time ass again. ODU gets fired up for this game like nothing else - let’s go Monarchs.

Clemson @ Duke: Clemson -13 O/U 55.5 - Monday 8:00pm ET ESPN

Tate’s Bet - Clemson -13: Look, I hate Clemson as much as the next mentally stable individual, but this is a line that is just screaming to get obliterated. Duke had an awesome year last year and returns one of the ACC’s best quarterbacks in Riley Leonard. But Clemson’s front 7 might do unholy things to Duke’s offensive line to the point where just a few Clemson touchdowns may get this done on its own. Maybe Duke hangs around for a half, but I’m on Clemson here for sure.

Boise State @ #10 Washington: Washington -14.5, O/U 58.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Tate’s Bet - Over 58.5: As we broke down earlier, this game is loaded with offensive talent and questions on defense. Washington had the most prolific passing offense in college football last year, and Boise State seems poised to be the best offense in the Mountain West this season. This is gonna be a fun one, and if you bet the over, you’ll be having a blast every time a big play is made - and there will be plenty of big plays.

Where in the World Are We?

If you’re reading this on Thursday morning, Rand is playing hooky from work and driving from Atlanta to Winston for the Game of the Century - Elon @ Wake. Saturday, he will be in the most average city in America, Charlotte, attending the South Carolina - UNC game. If anyone has leads on Marcus Lattimore jerseys please let him know.

Tate is taking a much more relaxed approach this weekend and setting up approximately 13 TV’s to go along with the 13 beers he intends to drink every hour on Saturday evening. Look, he spent years and years never missing a UGA home game, sometimes not even missing a single road game either. In 2009 he and his dad went to all 13 UGA games, including the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana, which capped off an 8-5 season. The next year, they traveled to Starkville, Mississippi to watch UGA lose to MSU, and the next week traveled to Boulder to watch the Dawgs lose to Colorado. He’s been through it all, and UGA has now won back-to-back national championships - does he really need to go watch UT Martin be physically harmed?

Have a great weekend and talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through our good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.