This'll Get Ugly: Week 11 Preview

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Good morning and welcome back to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. ESPN has an anger index. Yahoo has a misery index. In my phone I have a Notes app of a loser index. Spoiler: you’re on it. The point is, everyone loves talking about pain and suffering when it comes to college football, masochism is what makes the CFB globe spin. And what do you expect? The person writing this willingly roots for Wake Forest athletics. So today, let’s try our hand at a misery index of our own as we preview the admittedly miserable slate of CFB games this weekend.

Week 11 Games to Watch

Tonight (Friday), we’ve got a trifecta of games but only one with real importance with Tulane heading to Memphis. The loser of this game is knocked out of the American Conference race (most likely) and also out of playoff contention. There’s also a greater than 65% chance that both of these coaches will be gone by season’s end, with Jon Sumrall of Tulane looking like a fine piece of meat for Auburn and Memphis’ Ryan Silverfield looking ripe for the picking at Virginia Tech or literally any non-Florida or LSU opening in the southeast. Maybe Oklahoma State? Did I just make this weird? I think I did. Anywho, #19 USC is somehow still in playoff contention and hosts Northwestern on Friday night in a classic Big 10 rivalry, while Houston heads to the Bounce House to face UCF. Pretty decent Friday night, especially if you’ll be stuck in the B terminal of ATL like I’m likely to be tonight. Hello, TGI Friday’s!

The noon slate on Friday begins and ends with #7 BYU heading to America’s best kept secret: Lubbock, Texas. Is Lubbock a hidden gem? No clue. Never been. But if anyone reading this has please report back with your review, current location, and social security number, because I’m calling the authorities. This is the game of the day in the CFB world. College GameDay is in town for the first time since the Crabtree catch game against Texas. Should #8 Texas Tech lose here and get knocked out of playoff contention, it’ll be a true ‘welcome to the big leagues moment’. Maybe spending north of $20 million on a bunch of 20-year-olds and a QB named Behren wasn’t the smartest of investments. Miami (FL) empathizes with you. Also during this slate, #5 Georgia heads to Starkvegas to face Mississippi State, who’s on cloud nine after winning their first SEC game last weekend in over 2 years, while Penn State gets the weekly honors of getting waterboarded by #2 Indiana. Sorry, couldn't resist a Dick Cheney reference. 

The afternoon slate is slightly more appetizing as #22 Missouri hosts #3 Texas A&M. Missouri might not have a starting QB thanks to Beau Pribulla dislocating his ankle a few weeks ago against Vanderbilt so they turn to former 4-star Matt Zollers. (Read in Bugs Bunny voice) The Aggies should be very careful here! Also in the same voice, #9 Oregon heads to #20 Iowa in what might be the least aesthetically pleasing game of the day, and that’s exclusively because Iowa is involved. We give Oregon the benefit of the doubt here, but Iowa is going to make this game ugly as hell. Both teams are still alive for a playoff berth but Oregon has the edge, given they only have one loss (Indiana) to Iowa’s two (Iowa State and Indiana). 

The primo game of the evening slate is undoubtedly Wake-Virginia (below) but I guess I’ll mention two games that involve three teams currently occupying various layers of Dante’s Inferno. Florida State heads to Death Valley to face Clemson, whose coach told the AD he should fire him after losing to Duke. Clemson got hosed by the refs last weekend, but they also suck, so crocodile tears, Dabo. Florida State staved off firing Mike Norvell for $50 million for at least one more weekend by beating an ACC team last weekend who we’re conveniently forgetting. But it’s a wild mental exercise to type that an FSU loss to Clemson on the road might reinvigorate those rumors. Just goes to show how much Clemson has fallen. Maybe it has to do with the fact that they haven’t beaten a P4 team at home in over a year. Somewhere between FSU and Clemson in the Inferno, LSU heads to Tuscaloosa for the first time since Brian Kelly’s firing. #4 Alabama QB Ty Simpson is skyrocketing up Heisman and NFL Draft Boards for good reason. In misery index fashion, we implore Kalen DeBoer to wear his Black Hoodie of Death. Elsewhere, Notre Dame is going to smack Navy around while Florida and Kentucky face off in the part of the toilet you can’t reach with a brush. Welcome to Week 11, you miserable, sick souls!

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OnlyRans

Last Week: 5-3 // Season Record: 41-52 (44%)

Last week I mused, “What happens when the nation’s #1 scoring offense meets the 16th-ranked one? A surprising defensive slugfest buoyed by a hilariously large Vegas O/U mark. Trust me here, I’m a lock machine.” That was one of the 5 dubs on the weekend for OnlyRans en route to his positive weekend. Betting just comes naturally for him. Let’s stop talking in the third person and continue the good vibes, shall we?

Houston -1.5 @ UCF: Houston’s Big 12 and playoff chances went up in smoke last weekend with a horrible loss to West Virginia. Now they head to face another horrible Big 12 team on the road, but I would never bet against Willie Fritz letting losses compound and the season getting away from them. 

#2 Indiana -14.5 @ Penn State: Indiana is a war machine and Penn State laid it all on the line last weekend against Ohio State and got killed. This will be a sleepy Happy Valley crowd for a noon kickoff and Indiana has everything to play for. 

#9 Oregon @ #20 Iowa Game Total Under 40.5: Iowa’s defense is the only team to hold Indiana under a half billion points and damn near won. Kirk and the boys are going to drag Oregon into the depths of hell with them, and even if Oregon pops off for 30 or so, Iowa can’t score enough to put the over at risk.

Tulane +3.5 v Memphis: I don’t think Tulane is as bad as they looked last weekend in the Alamo Dome and this is a have to have it game for both teams. I think it’s close and love the hook on the key number.

BYU +10.5 @ Texas Tech: This is a massive line for the game of the week, and that’s because Vegas and the analytics love Texas Tech’s defense. This is a vibes pick, and every time you think BYU’s streak of luck and tenacity is about to run out, they just keep winning…and we’re going on roughly 4 years of this. I have no idea how they keep getting away with this but all the pressure and attention will be on Texas Tech so I like the Cougs to play spoiler and make this uncomfortable for the tortilla tossers. 

West Virginia -5.5 v Colorado: Colorado lost their last two games 53-7 and 52-17. Now, they head to Morgantown to face the same team that just knocked off Big 12 contender Houston. Only took him six different people, but RichRod might’ve finally found a QB in Scotty Fox Jr. 

Auburn +6.5 @ Vanderbilt: I know, this is ugly, but deadcat bounce for a team that just fired their head coach and turns the reins over to defensive coordinator DJ Durkin. You can look up what a horrible man he is on your own time, but I like him to rally the troops for a unit that’s been one of the SEC’s best all season, and now the offense won’t be meddled with now that Hugh Freeze is gone. Vanderbilt’s season also just lost all its juice, and now they’re playing for a Music City or Outback Bowl bid. Auburn to shock the Dores here. 

Washington -11.5 @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin’s scoring output in their last 6 games: 14, 10, 10, 0, 0, 7. 

Purdue +30.5 v Ohio State: Yes, Purdue just lost their best player - RB Devin Mockobee - for the year but they also didn’t have him last week and they only lost to Michigan by 5. This team is still fighting, they’re at home, and this line is massive. 

TCU -6.5 v Iowa State: Iowa State will now be down 6 defensive players from their opening weekend starting 11, thanks to injury. And they’re on a four-game losing streak. Take the Froggies at home. 

Wake Forest

Wake Forest (5-3) @ #14 Virginia (8-1): UVA -6.5, O/U 47.5 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Don’t talk about fight club, and don’t talk about the Wake game last weekend. This weekend, the Deacs are in Charlottesville to play the ACC-leading Hoos. The Hoos are on a run that reminds me a lot of the 2006 Wake team that wound up winning the ACC title. They’re playing every game on a knife’s edge, and 8 out of 9 times (thus far) the ball has bounced in their favor. Let’s run through them quickly.

After a beatdown of Coastal Carolina, the Hoos went to Raleigh and lost to N.C. State 35-31 in a nonconference game after QB Chandler Morris was picked off in the end zone with 1 minute remaining. Since then, it’s been rainbow, butterflies, and a whole lot of jaw-clenching for the Hoos faithful. In week 4, they took Florida State to 2OT before picking off the Noles to seal the game and commence one of the most efficient field stormings in recorded human history. The next weekend in Louisville, they needed a 67-yard fumble return TD, a 41-yard pick-six, and then a walk-off rushing TD in overtime to beat the Cards. After a bye, they welcomed Washington State to Hooville and won thanks to a safety with 14 seconds remaining, 22-20. Then they went to Chapel Hill and won after UNC went for two in overtime, but the runner was called down mere inches before the pylon. We’re still not done. Last weekend, they won thanks to another pick-six with less than 2 minutes remaining as Cal was driving for the tying FG or winning score. 

The Hoos have one of the best turnover margins (and luck) in the country. Some teams are able to keep this up for an entire season, some come crashing back down to earth. History tells us it’s usually the latter, and history also says the ACC is a snake that will bite its own head off. Georgia Tech just got punked by NC State. Miami just choked on their own vomit to SMU, who, a week prior, let Wake go from their own 42-yard line to a game-winning field goal in less than 15 seconds. Pitt is somehow still in the ACC race after pulling a 3-star freshman QB right off the bench (read: out of their ass) and is now a buzz saw. Duke and Louisville are floating around with one loss, too. It’s a circle of death/mediocrity in the ACC this year. Sidenote: if this were happening in the SEC, the conversation would be about how competitive the league is and they deserve more playoff bids, but I digress.

Virginia is the lone survivor as of now, but in classic ACC fashion, is undefeated in conference play even though they’ve lost to a conference opponent. Will Wake be the team to do it? Vegas says it’s more likely than Wake winning in Doak-Campbell last weekend, and we saw how that went, but in my lifetime, Wake never wins these games. However, that’s pretty hypocritical given I witnessed whatever the hell that Wake-SMU game was. Let’s stomp the shit out of these pompous assholes. Go Deacs.

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.