The Day of Reckoning is Here: Week 5 Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Comedy appears to be legal again this week, but there is little time for funny business in this week’s edition, because the matchups that make us love college football are starting to take place in full swing. It’s been a busy week of news since last Saturday as well, as Oklahoma State fired legendary coach Mike Gundy, rival Oklahoma announced Heisman-contending QB John Mateer had surgery on his throwing hand and will miss a few games, the SEC released each team’s conference opponents for the next four years, ESPN reported that the College Football Playoff may end up staying at 12 teams because the Big Ten and SEC can’t agree on anything, and the ACC is now requiring all members to play 9 conference games and one P4 game. We’ll get to all of that in due time, but for now, we’re going to jump right into the jam-packed Week 5 slate. Without further ado, let’s get to it.

Friday Night

Army plays at ECU tonight, which should be a good game, but the week kicks off with only two games on Friday night, with two games that could help shape the rest of the college football season. At 7pm ET, #8 Florida State will kick off on the road against Virginia in a game that nobody could have predicted the hype for one month ago. There’s so much anticipation for this game in Charlottesville that UVA had to release a statement that they wouldn’t be cancelling class on Friday. No one hates UVA football more than UVA. We all know that Florida State beat Alabama in Week 1 and looks strikingly different than they did in last year’s 2-10 disaster, but if it weren’t for the ‘Noles, Virginia would be the most surprising ACC team so far this season. The Hoos are 3-1, only narrowly losing on the road to NC State in Week 2, and are averaging 45.5 points per game led by veteran journeyman QB Chandler Morris (1,050 yards, 8 TDs) and stud WR Trell Harris (321 yards, 3 TDs). FSU looked great against Alabama, of course, but the ‘Noles have played an FCS team and the worst FBS team since then, and are now on the road for the first time against a sneaky dangerous team on a short week. There’s a reason FSU is only favored by 6.5 here - it should be a raucous environment, and this will go a long way in telling us how serious a contender FSU really is.

Around halftime of that game, #24 TCU and Arizona State will get underway in Tempe. ASU hasn’t looked quite as good as last year’s Big 12 Championship team - largely due to the departure of the extremely tiny Cam Skattebo, who is now extremely tiny for the New York Giants - but is certainly still a contender in the league. TCU has looked like one of the most exciting teams in the entire sport right now behind star QB Josh Hoover, and the Frogs are themselves clearly in the top tier of contenders in the league as well. This is a tremendous QB matchup, should be very exciting football, and much like most other games in the Big 12, could go a long way in determining who competes for the conference title in December, and therefore the CFP afterward. Houston heads to Corvallis to take on winless Oregon State at 10:30pm, and while it may not be a very competitive game, we’re keeping an eye on the 3-0 Cougars as a sleeper in the Big 12 as well.

The Four Week 5 Games to Watch

#1 Ohio State (3-0) @ Washington (3-0): tOSU -8.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

The #1 team in the country against an unranked team? Why is this the lead off of the games we should watch? Well, first of all, we’re going in chronological order here. But secondly, we think this game has way more potential than most people see coming. Ohio State is the most talented team in the country, yes. But Julian Sayin has not gone on the road to play a good team yet, and Husky Stadium is going to be rocking. QB Demond Williams and RB Jonah Williams - who will be RB1 in the next draft, you heard it here first - are arguably the best duo in the country. Can the rest of the team play with Ohio State? Probably not, but this is what makes college football great. This Ohio State offense under Sayin has not done anything to prove that they can go on the road and beat good teams. Are we saying that they won’t fly into Seattle and dominate? No. But we have to see it first, and this Washington team is one of the most underrated squads in the country and we wouldn’t be the slightest bit shocked to see this game come down to the wire.

Matchup to Watch: Jeremiah Smith and the OSU receivers vs. Washington’s tall, long corners. 

#4 LSU (4-0) @ #13 Ole Miss (4-0): MISS -1.5, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

Trinidad Chambliss is likely going to get the start for the Rebels and there might not be a more intriguing matchup in the country this week. Lane Kiffin’s Rebs could probably play Rand at quarterback and score a few touchdowns, and Trinidad is not Rand. The Rebs continue scoring touchdown after touchdown despite starting QB Austin Simmons being out, while the LSU offense looks a lot like the 2024 Georgia Bulldogs where every first down seems like the hardest thing anyone has ever done in their entire lives. LSU’s defense has looked great so far to be fair, but this will be their first test against an offense worth a damn considering what Clemson and Florida have turned out to be. If LSU is able to find success on offense, it’ll come from Garrett Nussmeier finding his very talented group of receivers against an Ole Miss secondary that has been a bit underwhelming thus far - but we’ve got to see that happen before we can really believe that it’s going to. The LSU/Ole Miss game is a criminally underrated rivalry and is annually one of the best games of the year - you should keep your eyes on this game because something wild is bound to happen.

Matchup to Watch: LSU linebacker Harold Perkins spying and chasing Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss around all game.

#6 Oregon (4-0) @ #3 Penn State (3-0): PSU -3.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET NBC

Calling this game a “clash of styles” really doesn’t do it justice, because these two teams do essentially every little part of football in the opposite fashion of the other. It starts at the top, where Penn State coach James Franklin has long been criticized for his inability to win big games against the Big Ten’s best, and that is often because of his incredibly conservative approach on offense. Oregon coach Dan Lanning, on the other hand, has at times been criticized for his uniquely aggressive approach, constantly going for it on 4th down, going for 2 after touchdowns all the time, and just generally flying in the face of how coaches have approached game management for decades. Penn State’s offense is set up to attack with their run game first and foremost, which has worked great over the past few years behind Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen which is probably the best RB duo in the sport. Despite being a potential first round draft pick, QB Drew Allar is mostly asked to just keep the chains moving on third downs and manage the game by converting with receivers on short patterns to keep the defense from entirely keying on the run game. Allar hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in his past 13 games, which is pretty insane! Oregon’s offense, on the other hand, is built around zipping the ball all over the field to their incredibly talented receiving corps, using the run game to keep the defense honest. 

In a 12-team playoff world, a game like this admittedly loses some of its luster as the loser of this game will still be in clear playoff contention, with multiple other games against top competition to bolster its resume. But it’s a white out at Penn State against a top ten Oregon team that plays one of the most interesting brands of football at any level. This matchup is exactly why we love college football.

Tate’s prediction: Oregon 29-24 - Lanning’s aggression works at a key point in the game to get it done, and they end up with a weirdo 29 points because they go for 2 at some random point for seemingly no reason other than just vibes

Rand’s prediction: Oregon 27-24 - James Franklin calls a conservative game and still can’t win the big one

#17 Alabama (2-1) @ #5 Georgia (3-0): UGA -3.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Well folks, we’re here. The game that is circled every time it pops up on the schedule, the game that no Georgia fan can ever say they’re “excited” for, is here. This will be the eighth game against the Crimson Tide since arriving in Athens, but the first (!!!!) time it’s happened in Athens. The last time Alabama came to Athens was in 2015, in a game that put the final nail in the coffin of Mark Richt’s tenure in Athens. We came in as favorites, but the Tide looked like an entirely different animal when they ran onto the field and obliterated us. That game is part of the reason Kirby is now our head coach.

This game is, as always, going to be a war. Both teams have an incredible amount of talent at most positions, but both have shown pretty glaring weaknesses in certain parts of the game. For the Dawgs, we have got to get the right side of the offensive line figured out. It’s been a game of musical chairs over there due to injury, which left us in a situation in Knoxville where redshirt freshman Michael Uini, who has practiced almost entirely at Guard in his career, had to be thrown out there at Right Tackle on the road against a very good team. For Alabama, they’ve looked a bit soft against the run up front on defense, and have at times really struggled to run the ball effectively themselves on offense. RB Jam Miller is back after missing the first three games with a collarbone injury, but struggling to both run and stop the run is not exactly what you want to  be doing as you come into Athens.

In a lot of ways, this game will come down to the quarterbacks. Ty Simpson really struggled to be on time and stay in rhythm during Bama’s Week 1 fiasco in Tallahassee, but has since seemed to settle in and has been able to get the ball to his elite playmakers effectively. Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard are both terrifying players for opponents, and Bama’s offense is entirely predicated on getting them the ball in space to let them make defenders miss - but this relies heavily on timing for Simpson, who so far looks like a guy that really needs one of his two pre-snap reads to be open to be an effective passer. If Georgia is not able to disrupt his timing, we might really struggle to keep Bama from moving the ball with consistency.

On the other side, while Gunner Stockton rose to the occasion and answered a lot of questions about himself up in Knoxville, a lot of our success through the air - the first long pass to Colbie Young, the huge Zach Branch 4th down slant route, and both the legendary throw to London Humphries and the game-tying two point play to Branch - came against one-on-one man coverage. Alabama has played a lot of zone so far this year, which is an entirely different thing for Stockton and the receivers to prove they can handle against a team like Alabama. Stockton proved he can be accurate with the ball downfield, but can he make quick decisions and hit open guys sitting down in space against different zone looks? Doing so will be absolutely key for us, especially in the redzone, because in a tight game it’ll be the team that can score touchdowns instead of settling for field goals that will probably come out on top.

My Dawgs previews against our rivals normally end in a rah-rah speech that pokes fun at how many times in a row we’ve beaten them, but this is the one opponent I can’t and won’t do that for. We’re 1-6 against the Tide since Kirby got here, but again, it’s the first time we’re getting them in Athens. We have an opportunity here to really get the monkey off of our back, to finally stop having mental collapses we so often have against this program. The reason people can’t say that Georgia has become the “new Alabama” is because we just can’t seem to actually beat Alabama on the field. This is our shot to flip the script on a new regime in Tuscaloosa, to make them start fearing us. I’ll do my small part and be loud as hell in the stands. Go Dawgs!

Matchup to Watch: Alabama’s incredible receivers against Georgia’s DBs, and Georgia’s incredible receivers against Alabama’s DBs

The Other Week 5 Games to Watch

In what may be a first in 4&F history, we’re putting a ranked vs ranked matchup in the “Other Games” category as #21 USC heads to #23 Illinois at noon. While we think that both of these teams have a shot at playoff contention to some degree, we’re not sure this specific matchup is worthy of a big game breakdown. Illinois just lost a game by 53 points and is incredibly banged up - every single starting DB from their Week 1 is currently hurt to some extent, as are a couple of more guys in the two-deep. That is bad, bad news against a USC passing attack that has looked pretty remarkable so far, but even if the Trojans carve up those Illini backups, we’re not sure that’ll tell us everything we need to know about who USC is… yet. We’re intrigued by how these teams look and obviously who ends up winning, but we’re putting these two teams on hold for the time being before we evaluate how legitimate each is, or isn’t.

Also at noon, #22 Notre Dame, who is still ranked despite starting 0-2 due to nothing but sheer faith, heads to the metropolis of Fayetteville, Arkansas, to take on, well, Arkansas. The Razorbacks are in a bit of a weird place, where head coach Sam Pittman’s time seems to be coming to a close, but the offense under QB Taylen Green and OC Bobby Petrino is actually really f*cking good, making them dangerous week in and week out. That’ll be no different for the Irish who are only 4.5-point favorites here, in yet another tough road start for freshman QB CJ Carr. Notre Dame is clearly the better team top to bottom here, but the Irish defense has been incredibly lackluster so far, giving up 71 points in their past two games and at times making the normally stoic Marcus Freeman absolutely lose his mind on the sideline. We’re putting the Irish on upset alert here because Green is a stud for the Razorbacks, and if the ND defense looks anything like it has over the past couple of games and really all season, Arkansas is going to score a bunch of points. 

The afternoon slate is loaded with the games we discussed above, but we think you should keep your eye on the #15 Tennessee @ Mississippi State game at 4:15pm. The Vols are less than a touchdown favorite over an MSU team that looks pretty vastly improved over last year, having already taken down defending Big 12 champion Arizona State at home a couple of weeks ago. Starkville can often get tricky for visiting teams, and we’re expecting a lot of points here. Tennessee will need to get some big stops and play clean offensively to avoid a potential upset here. We’ll also be watching Auburn, who travels to #9 Texas A&M team that is coming off of a bye after their massive win at Notre Dame two weeks ago. Aggie QB Marcel Reed looks vastly improved as a passer over last year and A&M has scored over 40 points in all three of their games this season, but the defense has looked incredibly concerning at times. That’s not an ideal combo as you get ready to face a very mobile quarterback who has receivers like Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton to get the ball to. A&M’s schedule is pretty light after this one (by SEC standards, at least) so we’re very curious to see if the Aggies can announce themselves as legitimate SEC contenders here, or if it’s Auburn who can throw their hat back into the ring ahead of their huge matchup with Georgia in a couple weeks.

At night, who are we kidding, we know you’ll be flipping between the Penn State and UGA games, but we’ll be monitoring Arizona and #14 Iowa State who both remain undefeated, and we’ll also keep an eye on how South Carolina looks against Kentucky because while the Gamecocks do already have two losses, they have enough big games left to make some noise as playoff contenders.

OnlyRans

Last Week: 4-4 // Season Record: 19-18 (51%)

TCU +3.5 @ Arizona State: As an appetizer for the banger of a weekend, give me the Horned Frogs who have the better offense and might be a wagon. I love the hook here too.  

Houston -13.5 @ Oregon State: Houston is coming off a bye and has trounced Rice & Colorado thus far. I’m bullish on Cougs coach Willie Fritz and need Oregon State to continue being trash so I have an enjoyable trip to Corvallis in a few weeks when the Deacs head there.  

USC -6.5 @ Illinois: Collectively, Illinois isn’t as bad as what they showed last week against Indiana, but their secondary is.

Notre Dame @ Arkansas under 64.5: This is absurdly high for an Arkansas team that has scored 10 points combined in the second halves against Memphis and Ole Miss. 

Kansas -4.5 v Cincinnati: Since losing to Nebraska, Cincy struggled with Bowling Green and blew out Northwestern State (had to look up where that is: Natchitoches, Louisiana) 70-0. My coworker who went to Kansas said this is a lock, and he’s miffed we don’t write about them more. If this doesn’t hit, we will never praise Jalon Daniels again. 

North Texas -12.5 v South Alabama: North Texas coach Eric Morris might be trying out for the Oklahoma State job but his Mean Green are undefeated and not getting the hype in the American thanks to Tulane, USF, and Memphis but they’ve got a damn good offense and a complementary defense. Get on them now before Vegas catches up. Since I just said that I’m sure they’ll win by 12. 

Cal +6.5 @ Boston College: Even though Cal just lost 34-0 to San Diego State, I’ll chalk that up to a freshman phenom (Cal QB JKS) playing like a freshman. This is too many points and Boston College was last seen losing by double digits to Stanford. 

Alabama +3.5 @ Georgia & Oregon +3.5 @ Penn State: In games that I truly don’t know what will happen, I lean underdog, especially if there’s a hook. Aside from Georgia playing Tennessee, here are the other five opponents UGA and Penn State have faced: Austin Peay, Marshall, Nevada, FIU, and Marshall. What do we know about them? Not much other than they have good defenses and are figuring it out offensively. Could’ve told you that in March. Give me the dogs, not the Dawgs.  

Tate’s Great Picks 

Last Week: 2-5 // Season Record: 10-14 (41%)

Washington +8.5 @ vs Ohio State

South Carolina -3.5 vs Kentucky and Under 46.5

TCU +2.5 @ Arizona State

USC -6.5 @ Illinois

Ole Miss -1.5 vs LSU 

USF @ Miami Over 56.5

Oregon +3.5 @ Penn State

Wake Forest & Georgia (Tech)

#16 Georgia Tech (4-0) @ Wake Forest (2-1): GT -13.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

After playing every year from 1982-2003, Wake and Georgia Tech have only matched up twice since 2011. Georgia Tech has won the last four matchups, but Wake won the only one that truly mattered, which came in the 2006 ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech had mfing Calvin Johnson and still couldn’t score a touchdown in a 9-6 slogfest, but that’s a story for an entirely different newsletter. Just know Wake’s defense that year was 2011 Alabama before Alabama. As for the game at hand, #16 Georgia Tech is undefeated at 4-0 and coming off a 45-24 victory over Temple and a last-second field goal win over Clemson which…isn’t looking that impressive anymore. The only thing you need to know about the Jackets is they’re going to run the ball with QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes, and when that doesn’t work, they’re going to do it again. They’ve got some dudes who run routes and might even catch a ball or two, but on the year, none of them have more than 200 yards. King is probably injured, but like that soldier from that god-awful movie The Princess Bride, he simply will not stop. Come at me with that hot take, I don’t care. That movie is unwatchable, just like Carolina. Heyo! Just kidding UNC, I love watching you play. 

Anyways, King mainly stayed out of harm's way and ran the ball 8 times for 15 yards against Temple and dinked and dunked his way to 161 passing yards. The Jackets need a bye week like a fish needs water, but they’ll need to take care of the Deacs first, who are coming off an extended one of their own, thanks to their Thursday night game against State on 9/11. State gave every team Wake will face the playbook on how to beat them, and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out if you stop RB Demond Claiborne, QB Robby Ashford probably isn’t beating you with his arm. Granted, the receivers made Ashford look even worse with untimely drops on third down, but State rarely needed to load the box to stop Demond. Hopefully, the bye week healed up our injuries on the OL, and Ashford gained some confidence, but there’s still so much unknown about this Wake team. Ashford has been all over the place, Claiborne missed the first game, destroyed an FCS team, and looked bleh against State. Or maybe, we know a ton about Wake and they are what they are. The difficult part of this game is that we might not know the answer after this one because Georgia Tech is just a bad matchup for us and most of the ACC. What’s also a bad matchup are my thoughts on minimal sleep, so I’ll wrap it up with this. Georgia Tech is going to run for a bajillion yards, and they opened as a 15-point favorite. The game is in Winston and kicks off at noon on ESPN. So pour one out for me and don’t text because I won’t have service anyway. Go mfing Deacs. 

Where in the World are We?

Tate: I’ll be in Section 121 at Sanford Stadium, just a couple of sections over from where I was when we last hosted Alabama - in 2015. That game was the nail in the coffin for Mark Richt’s tenure in Athens as we came in as a favorite and got absolutely obliterated in the pouring rain. Truly one of the most miserable experiences of my life. So yeah, I’m not anxious about this at all!

Rand: Nothing’s changed since Monday…or the Monday before that! Still in New York for this massive sporting event that people lose their minds over. I can’t believe tens of thousands of people dress up, heckle the opponents, and have coordinated chants for a silly little game. There are 8 million people on this extremely long island, another 60k expected on Saturday, plus a president who will personally make my life a living hell thanks to the TSA-esque security requirements, and yet I’m the only one who would rather be in Winston-Salem for the Wake game even though it’ll likely be pouring rain. I should just sell my credential for 40k TrumpCoin or whatever ponzi scheme he’s currently running. 

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest, and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.