Quick Week 4 Preview

Happy Friday afternoon and welcome to possibly the shortest ever edition of 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. You haven’t heard from us in a bit as Rand and I have been way off of our usual cadence, as the two of us have been to a combined three weddings and seven different states over the past eight days. This week also included my birthday and my last couple of days at my current job, while Rand is off-grid in upstate New York for his job, which is, of course, driving a motorcycle around a large spherical cage. Thankfully it’s been a very quiet and normal week in the world outside of our busy schedules, so we wanted to get a very brief few words out on the Week 3 that was, the Week 4 that is to be, and of course, our notoriously mediocre betting picks in everyone’s favorite format: a 1,000+ word Friday afternoon email. Let’s get to it.

But First: HBTFD

How we feeling Georgia fans?! What an all-time moment it was on Rocky Top last Saturday when Gunner connected with London Humphries to send the game to OT where the Dawgs made it nine straight against the Vols and broke the hearts of hillbillies region-wide. It can’t really be understated how encouraging it was to see Stockton step up to the plate in the way that he did - answering questions about his ability to lead a high-powered offense and come up big in critical moments. He has his limitations, and this offensive line really needs to get healthy and figure out the right side, but so many of the concerns that Dawg fans had about the offense and its ability to stretch the ball downfield were alleviated by Gunner and his receivers’ play on Saturday.

Of course everyone’s concerns simply flipped over to the other side of the ball, and I was admittedly very wrong in my belief that our defense would continue to have Josh Heupel’s number for a fifth year in a row. Tennessee showed us looks and plays that they’ve essentially never showed during his tenure in Knoxville, and the defense was so on their heels from the jump. Joey Aguilar started 12/12 and the Vols raced down the field on one of the easiest touchdown drives you’ll ever see to start the game, and then hit a 72-yard TD on the first play of the second drive with UGA’s defensive backs flailing and falling all over the place, utterly confused. 21 first quarter points had me thinking I may have overestimated our defense, but they were able to stay connected and settled into the game as it went along. That offense is way faster and more unlike anything we will face for the rest of the season, and the energy of that stadium had our defenders playing confused and way too tight, way too often in that game. I’m willing to chalk it up to a really good gameplan from Tennessee in a brutal environment, but the defense will need to go live up to their hype against Alabama next week if they want to prove they’re as good as everyone thinks they are.

But we can worry about that when we get there. For now, I’m going to keep reliving the incredibly memorable moments the Dawgs gave us in yet another Neyland win, and keep reveling in the fact that in all likelihood, Tennessee won’t have another opportunity to beat us until 2028. Rocky Top, you’ll always be, home sweet home to meeeee!

Elsewhere in Week 3

It was a fantastic day of college football across the rest of the nation, starting with Georgia Tech’s upset over Clemson in Atlanta. The Jackets passed their toughest test of the season until the regular season finale against Georgia, and caused yet another Dabo crashout in a 54-minute press conference on Monday. How quickly things can change in CFB - Clemson went from a popular national title pick less than a month ago to having their coach saying “If they’re tired of winning they can send me on my way” on a mid-September Tuesday press conference, while Georgia Tech of all programs just vaulted themselves up to Tier One of the ACC favorites with Miami and FSU.

Speaking of Miami, the Canes avoided the upset by dismantling cinderella hopeful USF in Coral Gables. Carson Beck looks absolutely incredible right now and Miami very well may have both the best offensive and defensive lines in the sport at the moment, which is pretty ideal in college football! We’re still high on the Bulls’ ability to go grab the G5 playoff spot, but hanging with this Miami team after beating Florida in the Swamp was probably a little bit too much to ask. The one big upset that did take place in Week 3 was Vanderbilt’s ass whooping of South Carolina, who lost star QB LaNorris Sellers early. We’ve got our eyes in the ‘Dores in the SEC race because 24th year QB Diego Football has been putting on a show since Week 1. Florida couldn’t pull off the upset at #3 LSU because DJ Lagway through FIVE INTERCEPTIONS (!!!), but that didn’t prevent a full on freakout from Tiger coach Brian Kelly after the game. That has been a pretty dreadful offense for a #3 team in the country so far.

But the next-best game of the day happened in South Bend as Texas A&M took down Notre Dame due to an absolutely brutal botched snap on a late extra point by quarterback turned lacrosse player turned snap-holder Tyler Buchner. It was an absolutely massive win for Mike Elko’s Aggies who look like a real playoff contender now, while 0-2 Notre Dame remained in the Top 25 because the 2025 AP Poll is the gift that keeps on giving.

Eyes on Week 4

There are only three ranked vs ranked matchups in what looks to be a relatively light Week 4, so you know what that means: we’re likely in for some chaos. The day will start with what many are calling “Big 12 After Breakfast” as #17 Texas Tech visits #16 Utah at 10:00am local time. These two squads have looked like arguably the best two teams in the conference thus far, and I think we might be in for some points being scored here. #22 Auburn and #11 Oklahoma will follow that up in the afternoon slate in Jackson Arnold’s return to Norman. Both of these teams look like potential sleepers in the SEC, but this game will likely do a good job of determining who is an actual contender and who is a pretender. We’ll have our eyes on Tulane’s visit to #13 Ole Miss and #21 Michigan’s road trip to Nebraska during this window as well, as we’ll likely see some exciting and solid QB play from all four teams.

The night window includes South Carolina at #23 Missouri, who we consider underrated at this point, along with Florida trying to rebound by having to checks notes, uh, visit #4 Miami. #9 Illinois heads to take on #19 Illinois in the last ranked v ranked matchup of the day, but the fun doesn’t stop there as #25 USC hosts Michigan State in a game that will kick off at 11:00pm Eastern. It’ll be a fun Week 4, and we’re expecting someone to get bit by the upset bug somewhere along the way.

Tate’s Great Picks

Last Week: 3-4 // Season Record: 8-9 (47%)

Nebraska +1.5

Clemson -16.5

TCU -6

Tennessee -39.5

ECU +6.5

Washington -19.5

Florida +8.5

OnlyRans

Last Week: 6-4 // Season Record: 15-12 (56%)

Memphis +7.5

Texas Tech +3.5

Army +1.5 

Nebraska +1.5

Auburn +7.5

NC State +2.5

Arizona State +2.5

Rutgers +2.5

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