Quarterfinal Playoff Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. In a 4&F first we have a relatively short newsletter today previewing the four quarterfinal playoff matchups taking place tonight and all day tomorrow. There are still eight non-playoff bowl games yet to be played with four of them kicking off this afternoon. You can catch our snarky previews of those games here. Other than that, let’s get right into it so you can get back eating grapes, black eyed peas, or whatever else you superstitious sickos are consuming today - besides college football of course.

Quarterfinal Playoff Preview

Fiesta Bowl: #6 Penn State (12-2) v #3 Boise State (12-1)

PSU -11, O/U 53.5 - Tuesday, 12/31 7:30 pm ET ESPN

After an incredibly disappointing first round filled with nothing but blowouts, the first quarterfinal matchup between, uhh, Penn State and Boise State should be better, right? Right? Anyone? Not to be blunt and dismissive, but… probably not.

The first thing everyone thinks about when considering Boise State’s chances here is obviously Ashton Jeanty, but I’d like to start on the other side. We will know very quickly what type of game this is going to be based on Penn State’s offense versus Boise State’s defense. If the Nittany Lions show the ability to move the ball with relative ease and take an early 10-0 or 14-0 lead, the Broncos are toast. Not only because they’re down early, but because Boise State is extremely game-script-dependent. The Boise offense is based entirely on QB Maddux Madsen turning around and handing Jeanty the ball, but if you get down early you can’t afford to just run the ball over and over again, no matter how good your running back is. 

Are we saying Boise State has no shot here? Not necessarily. Maybe Penn State has a couple of turnovers, maybe they don’t move the ball with ease early and allow Jeanty to establish himself on the ground. But Penn State’s offense has been playing well recently and QB Drew Allar hardly ever turns it over, while Penn State’s front seven remains one of the best in the country... We’re not counting on a good game here, even if we’re desperately hoping for one.

Rand’s Prediction: Penn State wins 38-13. This will get ugly. 

Tate’s Prediction: Penn State wins 28-11

Peach Bowl: #5 Texas (12-2) v #4 Arizona State (11-2)

TEX -13, O/U 51.5 - Wednesday, 1/1 1:00 pm ET ESPN

Congrats Arizona State! You turned around your season, clinched a top four bye in the playoff, and get to play your first ever playoff game in lovely…Atlanta? When the playoff inevitably gets changed in 2 years, matchups like this one and the Fiesta Bowl will be the main culprits for matchup inequality when compared with the paths for Oregon primarily. Let’s pin that for offseason fodder and get to the game at hand.

We’d love to be wrong here (we usually are) but we’re projecting another blowout and potential slaughter. Texas was last seen deploying their third and fourth string RBs and carving up Clemson’s defense for over 300 yards while Ewers was hardly touched. Clemson found success through the air but without star RB Phil Mafa they were ineffective on the ground. That’s important here because the first, second, and third player you need to know on the Arizona State side is RB Cam Skattebo who is a hoss. He’s 6th in the nation in rushing yards/game and when he gets going between the tackles, ASU is able to open up the play action offense for QB Sam Leavitt and their receivers who will be without star wideout Jordyn Tyson. Their second leading receiver is…Skattebo. Conversely, Arizona State has a top 30 nationally rush defense but are 91st and 110th in sacks and TFLs respectively so Ewers might be able to carve up their mid secondary. The path for an Arizona State win is a lot harder to see in our eyes than a Boise State win but Skattebo will need to have the game of his life and a few costly turnovers by Ewers is probably the recipe.

Rand’s Prediction: Texas wins 35-17. Another snoozefest before we get into the bangers.

Tate’s Prediction: Texas wins 37-14

Rose Bowl: #8 Ohio State (11-2) v #1 Oregon (13-0)

OSU -2.5, O/U 55.5 - Wednesday, 1/1 5:00 pm ET ESPN

Okay finally, a game that looks like it won’t be a blowout on paper… right? We have to assume so considering the way the first game went in Eugene when the Ducks won 32-31 in the final moments of the game. Who really knows in this playoff, but all indications point to yet another banger between what might be the two best teams in the entire bracket - matching up in the quarterfinals, naturally. The Tennessee game has us thinking that Ohio State may have found its sauce, with them realizing that they have the best group of receivers in the country and deciding to just take shots to guys like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, daring opposing corners to beat them. That’s as good of a game plan as there is anywhere in the country, but Oregon’s corners are much, much better than Tennessee’s, and the Ducks are led by one of the best defensive minds in the sport in Dan Lanning. In his third year in Eugene, Lanning has built this Oregon defense to look similar to what he had rolling in Athens just a few years ago. The Ducks are quick and physical up front and are versatile enough in the backfield to be able to bring pressure from all sorts of places and force QBs to make quick throws into what are often disguised trap coverages. Lanning is one of the best in football at forcing offensive line coaches, offensive coordinators, and quarterbacks install a multitude of protection calls, and while it’s always hard to beat a team twice, the OSU offensive line is now playing multiple backups that may be susceptible to mental mistakes in this spot against this defense. Will Howard will need to be on his A-game to make sure he has time to get the ball out to #4.

The same could be said for Oregon on offense, though. Buckeye defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is one of the most aggressive play callers in the country and other than the game in Eugene where the crowd was able to go completely silent for QB Dillon Gabriel, we haven’t seen the Ducks face a defense that can get after them like Ohio State may be able to. The Ducks are going to score, we know this, but it’ll be imperative for guys like Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloa to disrupt things in the Oregon backfield to at least get timely stops when the Buckeyes need them.

This game could go either way, with the only thing that would truly surprise us being a blowout for either squad. It’s probably going to come down to an elite player on one of these teams making an elite play to seal the deal late in the 4th quarter, and frankly, that’s all we’ve been waiting for in this playoff.

Rand’s Prediction: Oregon wins 35-27. I took Oregon to win it all and I’m sticking with it. 

Tate’s Prediction: Oregon wins 33-30

Sugar Bowl: #7 Notre Dame (12-1) v #2 Georgia (11-2)

UGA -1, O/U 44.5 - Wednesday, 1/1 8:00 pm ET ESPN

Smells like 1980, doesn’t it? Maybe that’s just the Crawfish Etouffee, but the Dawgs and the Irish are back in the same place where they met for the first time ever 44 years ago where UGA won 17-10 to win the 1980 National Championship. The next time these two faced - in South Bend in 2017 - Georgia had to start its inexperienced backup QB after their starter got hurt in the first half of their previous game. The Dawgs’ defense led them to a slugfest 20-19 victory, and then Georgia beat ND again in 2019 in what was another defensive melee. The vibes around New Orleans and the country ahead of this game are that we’re in for another brawl on New Year’s Day.

The biggest storyline of the game is, of course, that Georgia will be starting QB Gunner Stockton in place of the injured and NFL-bound Carson Beck. Enough has been written about Gunner as a person in the last few weeks, but it’s time we see what he’s all about as a player. Gunner broke Trevor Lawrence’s Georgia record for career touchdowns and Deshaun Watson’s record for career total yardage while in high school, has practiced against the best defense of the decade for three years, and came into the SEC Championship trailing the best defense in the country at halftime before leading the Dawgs to victory. Still, much of the national media thinks he just simply doesn’t have it as a passer to get the job done against the mighty Fighting Irish. It won’t be easy against studs like Howard Cross on the DL and Xavier Watts in the secondary, but those two groups have suffered significant injuries as well. Both DL Rylie Mills, who many consider ND’s best defender, and CB Benjamin Morrison, a projected first-rounder, are now out for the season. It’s the defensive line that I’m interested in. The Irish are not very big up front at all, and being without Mills makes me think the Dawgs may find some early and consistent success with a fully healthy Travis Etienne and Nate Frazier running behind a finally healthy (and massive) offensive line. Not to mention that Gunner’s got some legs, too. Gunner is going to have to throw to win, yes. But I don’t think he’s going to have to lead with his arm for the Dawgs to move the ball in this one. Expect the dynamic duo in the backfield to be running their asses off.

But where I really think the national media is going to be surprised - or maybe simply reminded - is when Notre Dame first lines up against this Dawgs defense. No, it’s not the 2021 or even 2022 defense, but it is a defense with Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker up front who are aided by multiple Sunday players on the defensive line. Notre Dame hasn’t seen anything close to that all season, and the worst part for the Irish about that is, dominating up front is where they’d buttered their bread all season. QB Riley Leonard is not a great passer, and while the ND offensive line has done a good job protecting him, Leonard ranks 101st in passer rating when pressured this season. Again, the Irish have not played anybody like either Jalon Walker or Mykel Williams yet, let alone both of them. It’s true that RB Jeremiyah Love is likely the best running back the Dawgs have faced all season and while keeping him contained will be a challenge, offenses typically have a very bad time against Georgia when Kirby makes them one-dimensional. That’s what I’m expecting here. Even if the very slippery and athletic Leonard is able to get out of the pocket and extend plays, it’ll be a little different when it’s Raylen Wilson pursuing him with Malaki Starks and Dan Jackson roaming the defensive backfield compared to what Notre Dame has faced this season.

Maybe it’s been the four weeks off that have me ready to see another Dawgs win. Maybe it’s the overtime win against Texas that has my belief in Gunner Stockton a little too strong. Maybe it’s just pure Georgia homerism. But they haven’t seen anything like us, folks. GATA Dawgs.

Rand’s Prediction: Notre Dame wins 28-17. I want my friends to be happy, but I’m taking the QB with 30+ career starts over the guy with zero. Take the over too. 

Tate’s Prediction: Georgia wins 23-10

We hope the New Year brings you immense happiness and wealth and eternal misery, pain, and suffering for your rival. We’ll talk to you next week. 

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.