Pop-Tarts & Playoff Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. As Texas QB Sam Ehlinger proclaimed after beating Georgia in the 2019 Sugar Bowl, “We’re bacccckkkkkkkk.” Texas certainly isn’t back but 4th & Forever is and we’re discussing the suicide of a pastry, Rand’s eternal suffering, Tate’s potential boon, and your first kiss, so without further ado, let’s get to it. 

Bowl Pick ‘em Update

What do Texas, George Santos, and Santa all have in common? They’re frauds. On 12/18/23, Rand wrote: “Please Santa, all I want for Christmas is for Tate not to win this group after his horrendous and despicable betting season.” Santa can play his way off this dubious list as long as Sam Weinbach, who is 1 game ahead of Tate, picks the national champion correctly on Monday and wins the pool. If not, The Grinch, er, Tate, can swipe the entire pot of money from us feeble Whos. The tiebreaker of total points scored in the title game might also have to be used to decide the winner of Rand’s Dad vs. Tate’s Dad who are both 21-21 in the pool. The Fisher contingent might need to burn sage or something to rid them of this bad juju. 

Pop-Tarts Bowl

We’re obviously here to talk about the massive playoff games that happened on Monday, but we would be failing our readers - and ourselves - if we didn’t take a minute to appreciate the greatness that was the Pop-Tarts Bowl. We’ve spent much of the last few weeks poking fun at some of these ridiculous sponsors for these absurd bowl games, but we’ve been consistent in stating that a brand like Pop-Tart - a fun, delicious brand that does not take itself seriously in the slightest - is the perfect type of sponsor for random December football games that are supposed to be fun for all involved… and man, did Pop-Tart deliver as a sponsor.

After it was announced in November that there would be an edible Pop-Tart mascot roaming around the stadium, many assumed that this game would be a bundle of joy. But nobody could’ve anticipated the level of absurdity that was to come. The first thing that became clear was that the mascot’s ultimate personal goal was to be cooked alive and eaten. It was funny, but… sinister? College Football funnyman Rodger Sherman attended the game and actually asked the mascot’s handler if it would be inappropriate if he ate a pop-tart in front of the mascot. Here was their response.

The mascot absolutely took over the game and created a firestorm on the internet, while Kansas State marched to a 28-16 victory over NC State in the background. It was everything that is great about college football bowl season, in every way. The Pop-Tart mascot lived out his ultimate dream and was cooked alive and eaten in what might have been the greatest moment of the 2023 college football season (second, maybe, to 4th & 31). Well done, Pop-Tart. This is what bowl season is all about. And to the Pop-Tart mascot: Your heart will go on.

Rose Bowl Recap

With Conor Stallions in attendance (we’re not kidding) at the pinnacle game for Michigan’s three-year run of excellence, things seemed primed for the Wolverines to break through and reach the national title game for the first time in over 25 years. 

We knew that this game would be a war in the trenches, and for one of the only times in history, Nick Saban’s team lost that war. Despite its special teams woes that included two muffed punts (including one that nearly lost them the game) and a botched extra point, Michigan looked like the better team more often than not. At multiple points in the game, Alabama had both momentum and opportunities to break the game open in their favor, but Michigan responded each time. Alabama could get absolutely nothing going offensively with any sort of consistency, its receivers (including noted loser Jermaine Burton) did not show up to play, and its center, Sean McLaughlin from Buford High School (lol), literally could not successfully snap the football. McLaughlin is now in the portal.

While much credit needs to be given to Michigan’s phenomenal defensive performance, we were very confused as to why Alabama offensive coordinator Tommy Rees seemed to abandon so many things that worked for the Tide against a comparable Georgia defense. Alabama feasted on picking apart the middle of Georgia’s defense - which at the time was forced to rely on freshmen linebackers due to injury - by using delayed drags and crossing patterns, forcing Georgia’s players to have to wait until the play was already developing to determine what their assignment should be. This did two things: it got Milroe in rhythm and forced Georgia to respect his ability to beat them through the air, and it also forced Georgia to sit back and not blitz nearly as much as it may have liked to. For whatever reason, Alabama seemed to not believe they would not have the same success against Michigan, but when you consider the six sacks that Milroe ended up taking, five of which came from completely unblocked defenders, it seems very perplexing why this type of attack was never attempted. 

Regardless, Michigan did what it needed to, when it needed to the most and deserved to win this game. When it was down 7 with 4:30 to go, it marched down the field and scored a touchdown to tie the game. When it lost the coin toss in overtime and had to go on offense first, it scored a touchdown in two plays. And when it was faced with an Alabama 4th down with the game on the line, its defense blew up the Alabama offensive line to send themselves to the championship. Good on you, Michigan. You may have gotten caught cheating, this win may get vacated in 6 months, and everybody may think it’s silly that you’re claiming dominance over the SEC after your “best team ever” needed overtime to beat the worst Alabama team we’ve seen in over a decade. But nobody will ever be able to take away the feeling you had when Jalen Milroe went down at the 2-yard line. You now have the opportunity to do what you haven’t done since 1997 - win a national championship. We’re sure you won’t f*ck it up from here.

Sugar Bowl Recap

Props to Texas for outperforming their lofty preseason expectations for the first time since swine flu was a real concern. Is Texas back now? Will Texas ever be back? Who the hell cares, they lost and society is spared from watching their jean-clad fanbase wave their burnt orange pom-poms around spitting Skoal Long Cut Peach Blend everywhere because we all know Grizzly Long Cut Natural is too high class for their unwashed gums. As hard as it is for your egos to believe, this ain’t about you. 

After beating top-ten ranked Oregon twice, #20 USC, #18 Utah, #11 Oregon State, and then capping it off with a thrilling win over #3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl, Washington has proved that they aren’t a fluke. Time after time, Vegas and even our dumbasses have doubted them but the Huskies just keep finding ways to win, and it’s time to give them their flowers. After 14 games, it’s impossible to keep claiming Washington is a fluke. Maybe they’ll fall on their face against Michigan, but we can’t deny they aren’t one of the two best teams in the country. What is flukey about them is how they’re performing against historical expectations which put them, and specifically their offense, in rarefied air. Let us explain…

Over at 247 Sports, Bud Elliott developed the Blue Chip Ratio (BCR) which is an algorithm and theory that essentially says teams cannot win a natty without having at least 50% of their roster comprised of 4 & 5-star players. No team has won a national championship signing less than 50% blue chip prospects, ever. The closest team to being under the 50% threshold was 2010 Auburn, which had Cam Newton. Other teams that have come close to that threshold are 2013 Florida State at 53% but had Jameis Winston, 2016 Clemson at 52% but had Deshaun Watson, and 2018 Clemson at 61% but had Trevor Lawrence. Washington does not meet that threshold even when factoring in transfers. As you can tell, the one thing that all those aforementioned teams had was an undisputed stud at QB. 

However, what all those teams had that Washington definitely does not have is a stifling defense. On the year, Washington ranks 97th in the country by giving up 404 yards/game. By comparison, UNC ranked 98th and just fired DC Gene Chizik but had the arguably better QB in Drake Maye. Washington also ranks 53rd in the nation giving up 24 pts/game. The other 3 playoff teams - Michigan, Alabama, and Texas - all ranked in the top 16 nationally. Let’s quickly compare Washington’s 97th total yards allowed and 53rd-ranked scoring defense compared to those aforementioned Auburn, FSU, and Clemson teams. 2010 Auburn ranked 60th in total defense and coincidentally 53rd in scoring defense, Florida State ranked 3rd and 1st, 2016 Clemson ranked 8th and 10th, while 2018 Clemson ranked 5th and 1st respectively.

So Washington’s defense is a sieve, but does that make their offense that much more lethal? We saw on Monday night that Penix and his trio of receivers turn every 50/50 ball into 99/1 balls if the opposing DBs are lucky enough to be within 2 yards of them, but the thing is, statistically, their offense isn’t that good. 2019 LSU and 2020 Alabama are considered the greatest college football offenses of all time based on star power and statistics. 2019 LSU was led by QB Joe Burrow, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and WRs Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Terrace Marshall Jr. They averaged 48.4 ppg and 568.4 ypg. 2020 Bama was led by QB Mac Jones, RBs Najee Harris & Brian Robinson Jr., and WRs Devtona Smith (Heisman winner), Jaylen Waddle, and John Metchie. The Tide averaged 48.5 ppg and 541.6 ypg. Washington averages almost 100 yards less than ‘19 LSU at 473.6 ypg and more than 10 points less than both at 37.6 ppg. Bama & LSU both had 1st round RB picks while Washington has some dude named Dillon Johnson who might not even play against Michigan on Monday due to injury. In fact, based on this definitive list from Fox Sports we quickly googled, every single GOAT offense has averaged at least 500 yards and 40 points per game except 2001 Miami which shouldn’t count because back in the ancient times players didn’t have access to TikTok or CrunchWarp Supremes at Taco Bell - you know the things that make America what we all know and love today. 

All of that is to say, we have no idea how Washington keeps getting away with this. Their defense is about as average as your first kiss, and while their offense seems unstoppable, we’ve all seen better. Maybe they bite the curb against Michigan and join the infamous almost champion club with 2016 UNC basketball, 2017 Georgia football, and the 1776 Red Coats. Best of luck to them, but damn are they fun to watch.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Wake Forest: It is relatively quiet on the WFU football front which is generally a good sign so let’s discuss basketball because as my friend eloquently opined, “Deacs might be good at bball folks…I think I’m ready to get invested/heartbroken later in the season.” The Deacs are 10-3 on the year and haven’t lost since mid-November when they lost 3 of 4 games to Georgia, Utah, and LSU. I hate when people play the ‘yeah, but’ game but this is my column and given the fact Wake Hoops hasn’t brought me extended happiness since I was under 5’ tall, dammit we’re playing the ‘yeah, but’ game. Since those losses, Wake got the waiver approved for 7’1 big man Efton Reid who is averaging 9 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks/game. With the best pure shooter in the ACC in Damari Monsanto expected to return any game now, Wake is - to my dismay - getting hype from national media about being a dark horse ACC contender. Duke, UNC, and Clemson seem to be the top ACC teams, followed by a jumbled mess of hell behind it. Wake seems to have all the pieces to make noise in the ACC and push for a postseason berth. Just last week, they eviscerated a 9-3 Hokie squad by 23 points, and on Tuesday they went into 9-3 Boston College and won by 6 after being down by 10 points at one point. G Boopie Miller (16.9 ppg) will mid-range opposing teams to death, bull in a china shop G Cam Hildreth (15.8 ppg) can post up and drain threes, and transfer G Hunter Sallis (18.4 ppg) can score from outside and throw down Ja Morant-esque dunks like this one or like this one (skip to 2:35). However, the higher the expectations, the harder the fall and though applicable, we’re not talking about the Cubs. Wake has made the Big Dance once since 2011 and boasts a stellar 3-16 ACC Tournament record since Prosser’s death. Bet only what you’re willing to lose, but I’m pretty close to pushing my chips all in on the Deacs.

Georgia: 63-3. Lmao. After aaalllllll of that crying and moaning Florida State did for weeks after being left out of the College Football Playoff - which we’d all be doing if it were our team, to be fair - Florida State had the opportunity to show the world what they were made of, go out and beat the two-time defending champions and unequivocally prove their case that they deserved to be in. Instead, all of their players opted out and they lost by sixty (60!!!) points. Honestly, I don’t even really want to pick on FSU too much. It would have been the coaching job of the century to get a bunch of future NFL players to stay motivated for an entire month to play a game that, all things considered, meant nothing to them. But my god, man, that was an absolute annihilation.

Something I haven’t seen discussed too much is how good of a job Kirby did on the other end. So many of these players won back-to-back national championships, they were so close to a third, and when you consider the state of college football bowl games at the moment (see: FSU), had every reason under the sun to opt-out and/or coast through bowl practices and sleepwalk through this game. These guys have already proved their place in the sport, they have already given Dawg nation countless memories and multiple trophies to look back upon for eternity. Still, they didn’t opt out, and they didn’t half-ass their effort either. This performance was a testament to the culture and tone Kirby has set within this program - if the Georgia Bulldogs have a football game to play, they are going to play it relentlessly. Sure, someone may get us once every 30 games, but this program is going to finish what it started each and every time. And while I don’t want to harp on the committee’s decision and sound like a baby… here are the theoretical lines for Georgia vs. the two national championship contenders. I’ll just leave that there. We’re returning so much talent, we’ve added some elite talent from both the portal and the high school level, and now we’ll have a chip on our shoulder once again. This is still the best team and program in the country, and Kirby isn’t letting that change any time soon. I already can’t wait for spring practice.

In the meantime, though, I recommend you start tuning into the Georgia basketball team! The Hoop Dawgs are 10-3 after winning their last 8 games, including wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech. We’re headed into the SEC schedule, where we’ll take on Missouri in game one of league play on Saturday. The Dawgs have rounded into form over the last month and, while not as talented as some teams at the top of the league, look like they’re going to be a tough out for everyone. Senior forward Jabri Abdur-Rahim is one of the league’s best players, guards Noah Thomasson, Justin Hill, and Silas Demary Jr. have begun to mesh really well together, and former Division-II Player of the Year RJ Sunahara has returned from injury to help shore up the frontcourt. This team has a very real chance of playing themselves onto the bubble and into the NCAA tournament for the first time in nine years, and we have a great shot to kick this thing off by starting 1-0 in SEC play on Saturday. Tune in!

Texts of the Week

“Being a Cubs and Bears fan is more than enough to look down on the unwashed heathen.” - John Fisher

“Absolutely HATE that for Jermaine Burton. HATE TO SEE IT” - Robbie Eisenman

“Genuinely the most fraudulent university on the planet.” - Jack Zucker re: Michigan

“How did we lose to that ass team” - Alex Sztejnberg after Jalen Milroe attempted to bull rush a group of 300-pound men

Hope you have a great day, and we will talk to you again on National Championship Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.