Playoff & New Year's Six Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. It’s been an eventful past few weeks in the sport, with the transfer portal rolling on, National Signing Day seeing more top-level talent dispersed throughout the country, more realignment talk, court cases, coaching changes, and some of the most random bowl matchups you could come up with. But as we reach the new year, we’re headed into a week with some meaningful football left to be played, so without further ado, let’s get to it. 

Don’t Let Anyone Tell You There Are Too Many Bowls

Look, we know that over the past 10 days your consumption of bowl games has consisted more of occasionally looking up at the TV to check the score in between helping your mother dice tomatoes while answering questions about how work is going. We’re not here to tell you that you should have been absolutely locked into Ohio vs Georgia Southern or Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State. But those who may tell you there are “too many bowl games” are nothing but fun-hating losers. We’re less than two weeks into bowl season, and we have already seen two separate thrilling OT games, three different brawls (here, here, and our favorite, here), and just last night a head coach was rewarded for winning a game by having several gallons of mayonnaise dumped on his head. Maybe these teams aren’t all that good, and these games definitely matter less than they used to, but c’mon… we know you’d rather have three different Wednesday football games happening rather than no football at all, especially when you consider that both punches and random condiments could be hurled at other people at any given moment. These bowl games highlight the absurdity of this sport in the very best way.

On top of that, we’ve got the 4th & Forever Bowl Pick’em Challenge happening! With 18 games left to be played, Sam Weinbach is currently alone in first place with a record of 18-7, followed closely by Stephen Sullivan and our own Tate Smillie. But because Sam is just a silly little boy and Tate sucks at making picks, we’re sure there will be some changes coming at the top over the next few weeks. Tate’s dad is currently two games ahead of Rand’s dad, which is great for Tate’s dad as he doesn’t want this to happen to him anytime soon. It’s a tight race all around with plenty of games to go, so be sure to checking in on your picks and making any changes as you see fit over the next couple weeks.

Playoff Preview

The Rose Bowl: #4 Alabama (12-1) v #1 Michigan (13-0): Michigan -1.5, O/U 44.5 - Monday 5:00pm ET ESPN - Pasadena, California

There is absolutely nothing better than a year where the Rose Bowl is one of the playoff games, and this matchup between two of college football’s all-time best programs seems like it’ll live up to expectations. Both teams come in with remarkable defenses, both according to statistics and via the eye test, while both offenses have clear shortcomings. 

Offensively for Michigan, things were going quite smoothly through the first 10 weeks of the season. Led by one of the best running backs in the country in Blake Corum and a very good offensive line, the Wolverines’ rushing attack was in elite territory in the sport when QB JJ McCarthy was able to compliment it by making plays through the air - and with his legs - in a consistent manner. But over the past four Michigan games, things have gone a little differently for McCarthy and his offensive line. Through McCarthy’s first 9 games, he averaged 10.4 yards per attempt, 252 yards per game, and had 21 total touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. And then came the Penn State game, and things took a turn for the worse. Side note, that was the first full week after the news of the Michigan sign-stealing scandal broke, which we’re sure was completely, totally unrelated. Anyway, since then, McCarthy has seen his yards per attempt drop to a measly 6.1, his total yards per game drop by a full 100% to just 126, and he has only scored 1 touchdown with 1 interception. In that Penn State game, the first real opponent Michigan had faced, Michigan’s offensive line’s pass protection quickly appeared to be a big concern. So much so that Michigan did not even attempt a pass in the 2nd half, opting to just pound the rock in hopes of wearing Penn State down. To be fair, that was what happened, and Michigan has rattled off 4 wins since then, including a third consecutive victory over Ohio State and a Big Ten Championship win over Iowa. Still, the Wolverines ability to throw the football with any sort of effectiveness is a major cause for concern considering their next opponent. Alabama has an absolutely elite secondary, and one of the best pass rushers in the game in Dallas Turner. Color us unconvinced that Michigan will be able to just run straight at Alabama and wear them out.

For the Crimson Tide’s offense, there hasn’t been a more improved player in the country from the season’s start to the season’s end than QB Jalen Milroe. After throwing two dreadful interceptions that led to a double-digit loss to Texas at home in September, Milroe was benched for Alabama’s third game against USF. When it became abundantly clear that that wasn’t going to solve Alabama’s offensive woes, Milroe was reinserted, and week-after-week since then, he’s slowly turned into one of the nation’s most dangerous players. Milroe has evolved into a superb downfield passer, and is playing with a level of confidence that seemed virtually impossible to see him playing with earlier this season. Wide receivers Isaiah Bond and Jermaine Burton have stepped up their games to help him out, too. Milroe is not very effective in the intermediate passing game. Throws that require Milroe to be consistently on time and accurate are not what he excels at, but because the Tide have the greatest coach of all time, they have morphed the offense into an attack that does not ask Milroe to do that hardly at all. Alabama has struggled to run the ball at times this season, too, but again, this is a Nick Saban team. Just when you think there’s a weakness, his teams somehow turn it into a strength in the biggest moments (see: Bama running effectively on Georgia without its starting running back).

Neither of these teams are perfect. You probably don’t want to see either team win. But this is going to be an old school, immensely physical brawl in the trenches between two legendary programs. The sun is going to go down right at the start of the 4th quarter, and Rose Bowl games have a tendency of being classics - especially when championships are on the line. It’s going to be awesome. At the end of the day, the question probably comes down to this: who do you trust more to win a game like this? We have seen Michigan get whacked in their first two CFP appearances against Georgia and TCU, and we have seen them seem to regress over the last month of the regular season. We have seen Nick Saban win six national titles at Alabama, and lose a first-round playoff game only once. His teams show up to play in the biggest moments time and time again, and now ol’ Nick has a month to prepare for a seemingly one dimensional team. Can you tell where we think this one might be headed?

The Sugar Bowl: #3 Texas (12-1) v #2 Washington (13-0): Texas -4.0, O/U 63.5 - Monday 8:45pm ET ESPN - New Orleans, Louisiana

If Alabama/Michigan is going to be an “immensely physical brawl in the trenches”, this one, well… won’t be. But it will probably be more fun! Both of these squads bring in extremely talented quarterbacks and wildly impressive talent at wide receiver. 

Texas’ Quinn Ewers, one the highest-rated high school recruits ever, has improved remarkably compared to last season, and the Texas attack remains very balanced with a good running game despite star running back Jonathan Brooks tearing his ACL in early November. Receivers Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell are performing at an elite level, and tight end Jatavion Sanders looks to be a matchup nightmare for a Washington defense that is lacking in high-level players, particularly at linebacker. Texas is at its best when its play action game is running effectively, and we certainly expect them to be able to do that against a defense that both struggles to get a push up front, and struggles to cover fast, talented receivers on the back end.

Washington’s offense, however, does not lack in high-level talent. QB Michael Penix was a Heisman candidate this season and has had an incredible run with the Huskies, throwing for nearly 9,000 yards and 64 touchdowns over the past two seasons. His biggest weapons are his wideouts - Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk both already have 1,000 yards this season, and while Jalen McMillan has dealt with injuries throughout this season, he was the true second option when healthy. All three have bright NFL futures ahead of them, with Odunze projected to be picked in the first round.

Washington looked like absolute world-beaters for the first several weeks of the season, averaging over 44 points per game in its first 6 contests, which culminated with an incredible performance by Penix and the offense to beat #8 Oregon. From there, though, things took a weird turn. In Washington’s last 6 regular season games, it averaged only 31.6 points per game - certainly not dreadful, but far below the level it was playing at in the first half of the season. Health was an issue, but things just looked off in terms of timing in the passing game down the stretch of the season. The Huskies then put it together to beat Oregon in a great performance in the conference championship game earlier this month, so… it’s very hard to predict which version of Washington is going to show up on Monday. Texas’ defensive line, led by absolute freaks T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, will be easily the toughest test Washington has faced this season. The key to this game may come down to those two players’ ability to disrupt the rhythm of Penix and his receivers.

Regardless, we expect this to be a really, really fun game of football. There are future NFL players all over both offenses, and Vegas certainly expects some points to be scored. After years and years… and years, and years, and years… of hearing that Texas Is Back, that statement may finally be true. But this Washington team is nothing to take lightly, and Michael Penix shines when the lights are brightest. This is an absolutely massive game for both programs moving forward, so we’re expecting both of these squads to leave it all out on the field. We cannot wait for this game.

New Year’s Six Preview

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: #9 Missouri (10-2) v #7 Ohio State (11-1): OSU -3.0, O/U 49.0 - Friday 8:00pm ET ESPN

Location: Jerry Jones’ massive, silly stadium in Arlington, Texas.

One reason to watch: For very different reasons, this is a really big game for both teams. Missouri is coming off of its best season in over a decade and has the chance to win its 11th game in one of the biggest bowls against one of college football’s best programs. The Tigers will return a ton of talent next season, and a win here would be a tremendous momentum boost headed into 2024. For OSU, yeesh… Things are a little spicy for Ryan Day after losing his 3rd straight game to Michigan and watching them roll into the playoff once again. Losing to Missouri would make this a really rough offseason for Day - he’d be feeling the heat like never before. While he hasn’t officially announced, it appears the Marvin Harrison Jr. will be opting out of this game but even if he does play, starting QB Kyle McCord has already transferred to Syracuse. Both of these two teams play great defense, and there is talent all over both offenses regardless of who plays for the Buckeyes. We’re very interested in this one.

Who’s the sponsor: Goodyear, which is probably most famous for its blimp. That’s absolutely perfect for a game that’ll be played in a dome!

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: #11 Ole Miss (10-2) v #10 Penn State (10-2): PSU -4.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Location: Alabama’s second home, Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

One reason to watch: Ole Miss’ offense is really good, and Penn State’s defense is really good. Many (including yours truly Tate Smillie) would argue that this is also arguably the best uniform game you could put together. Sometimes that’s all you need! Ole Miss has absolutely loaded up some talent heading into next year with easily the #1 transfer portal class in the country, and while those guys obviously won’t be playing on Saturday, the Rebs are another team that could use a big jolt of momentum headed into an offseason of very high expectations. Penn State would love to see QB Drew Allar have a big game - he has all the raw talent in the world, but hasn’t put it together yet. A good performance for him and his team would be big-headed into a new-look Big Ten in 2024.

Who’s the sponsor: Chick-fil-A, which apparently just closed its location near my (Tate) office building for the next 5 months to renovate, which is absolute f*cking horsesh*t. What the f*ck am I supposed to eat for lunch now? A salad? Make my own sandwiches? What the f*ck. I am so f*cking pissed off.

Capital One Orange Bowl: #6 Georgia (12-1) v #5 Florida State (13-0): UGA -19.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ESPN

Location: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. We are sure that the players on both teams will be on their best behavior around New Year's in Miami.

One reason to watch: You want to watch Florida State’s 3rd-stringers and/or true freshmen get absolutely bludgeoned to death by the best team in the country. FSU has already had 16 starters (!!!) opt out of this game, and will be starting 3rd string QB Brock Glenn. Meanwhile, Georgia has had zero official opt-outs to date, potential first-round pick Kamari Lassiter said it was a “no brainer” that he’d be playing in this game, and Brock Bowers seems intent on playing through an ankle injury just because he just loves the Dawgs. Regardless, it’s a matchup between two of the best programs in all of college football and is a great uniform matchup itself. Half of our subscribers are Georgia fans anyway, so let’s just have fun kicking some ass, shall we?

Who’s the sponsor: Capital One, which we did not have an initial joke for, so we googled “Capital One controversy”. Turns out Capital One was fined nearly $400,000,000 in a money laundering case just two years ago. A banking/credit card company quietly being fined for nearly half a billion dollars for literal money laundering and just shrugging and continuing to sponsor meaningless college football bowl games is about the most American thing we can think of. Respect.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: #23 Liberty (13-0) v #8 Oregon (11-2): UGA -19.5, O/U 44.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET ESPN

Location: State Farm Stadium in Phoenix, Arizona. We’re honestly shocked that State Farm isn’t also just sponsoring this game considering the absurd amount of money it spends on advertising. Perhaps they’ll make enough YouTube revenue from their inevitable Travis Kelce + Taylor Swift Super Bowl commercial that they can sponsor this game next year.

One reason to watch: We’re going to go out on a limb here and say that we think this game could be closer than Vegas thinks. Yes, Bo Nix is playing for Oregon and he and his buddies will probably abuse Liberty’s defense. But Liberty can light it up offensively as well behind its tremendous QB Kaidon Salter, and sometimes differences in motivation are the great equalizer in bowl games. Oregon has to be disappointed to have lost to Washington and miss out on the CFP, while literally all of Liberty’s players will be playing on the biggest stage of their entire lives with the chance for an undefeated season. This reminds us a bit of the classic Boise State vs Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl back in the 2006 season, other than the fact that compared to Boise, Liberty is, well… a little less likeable.

Who’s the sponsor: Vrbo, which you probably use when you can’t find something you like on AirBnb. Vrbo’s Wikipedia page has two sections, the first being about the history of the company, and the second being titled “Criticism”. That section is about twice as long as the first. Great bowl game sponsor.

We hope you enjoy all of the football and have a happy new year. We’ll talk to you again next week.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.