Pt 2: Who the Hell is Their QB Again?

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Not much has happened in college football over the past week, so we figured we’d start by congratulating 4th & Forever ‘Texts of the Week” staple Alec Nathan and his lovely wife Hayley on getting married this past weekend. Several of our readers here had a blast at their incredible wedding, and I’m sure we’ll all always remember the fact that Big Al got married exactly 139 days before the 2024 college football season. We still have plenty of actual football opinions to get out today, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

More Questions About the Most Important Position

Last week we spoke about several quarterbacks that intrigued us heading into the summer - we talked about Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss’ high-flying offense, Jalen Milroe returning to a brand new offense in Tuscaloosa, and Will Howard having the entire weight of the state of Ohio on his back, among several others. What we quickly realized is that even with a discussion about multiple quarterbacks at some of the top programs in the country, there were still dozens of interesting QB situations across the country that we’re looking forward to watching play out headed out of spring practice and into the offseason. There are a bunch of spring games taking place this Saturday that’ll give us our first real glimpse of these guys, so let’s discuss a few more QB situations we’re interested in taking a look at.

Which first-year starter intrigues you the most headed into 2024?

Tate: Given that I am Jackson Arnold’s #1 overall fan, there’s no way I could go with anyone else. The former five-star rising sophomore at Oklahoma will be taking over for Dillon Gabriel who, despite being arguably the best returning quarterback in the country, was pushed out of Norman to make room for Arnold and ensure he didn’t transfer away himself. He’s 6’1, mobile, has a big yet accurate arm and had 345 and 2 touchdowns in his first career start against Arizona in last year’s Alamo Bowl. I’m going to ignore the three interceptions he threw in that game because two of them came late as Oklahoma was airing it out late in the game when two of them occurred, and again, it was his first career start going up against a top ten team (also it would harm the narrative I’m building here). The SEC is going to be loaded with QBs in the Sooners’ first year in the league in 2024, and I’m expecting Arnold to be the surprise of the conference. 

Rand: Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams, and now…Miller Moss? The average-looking white guy who looks like he sold Cutco knives in high school is going to carry on Lincoln Riley’s venerable QB tradition? It’s a fool’s errand to doubt Riley and his QB selections but they ran off Malachi Nelson (more on him below and last week) for this kid? Turns out, Lincoln might know what he’s doing after Moss went 23-33 for 372 yards and a Holiday Bowl record 6 TDs against Louisville when Caleb Williams opted out. Moss needs the unproven receiving corp outside of Freshman All-American Zachariah Branch to step up but former Mississippi State and senior transfer RB Woody Marks can help in the receiving game as well. Lincoln finally ran off punching bag DC Alex Grinch which is a damn shame for personal and vested (USC overs were a lock) interests and brought in highly regarded and former UCLA DC D’Anton Lynn. Lincoln showed this offseason he might actually be serious about competing at the highest levels of CFB instead of making Caleb Williams highlight tapes but with a neutral site game against LSU in Week 1 and a trip to the Big House in Week 3, we’ll quickly learn how serious to take the Trojans & Moss. 

Which returning starter needs to take a big leap forward to get their team where they want to go?

Rand: Time is a flat circle and there’s no greater evidence of that than having to talk about Cade Klubnik and Clemson for yet another offseason. Per usual, Dabo did not utilize the transfer portal to fill holes in the roster but did bring in a loaded recruiting class, the front seven is stocked with future NFL players, and the WR room is unproven but has all the potential in the world. Sound familiar? Thought so. WRs Tyler Brown and Antonio Williams are back but look out for incoming blue chip Bryant Wesco Jr who can fight for playing time. When was the last time Clemson didn’t have a stud at RB? I’m guessing the 5 years between Terry Allen and CJ Spiller which would’ve been the early 2000’s. Phil Mafah’s back after splitting carries with Will Shipley and should carry on the lineage just fine. Defensively, Peter Woods, Barrett Carter, and Sammy Woods will all be future 1st round selections and lead the best defensive unit in the ACC. Which brings us back to Klubnik and his second season under Wonderboy OC Garrett Riley. Year 1 didn’t go so swimmingly with Klubnik posting a 19-9 TD to INT ratio and less than 3,000 yards on the year. Clemson had one-possession losses to NC State, Miami, and Florida State but remember how bad the Week 1 loss to Duke was? Average QB play by Klubnik should be enough to win the ACC and get Clemson into the 12-team playoff but average doesn’t cut it in Death Valley.  Akin to Miller Moss & USC above, we’ll know by October how much improvement Cade made this offseason and if the shine has worn off on Riley’s OC abilities. In the first 5 weeks of the season the Tigers will face Georgia in Atlanta, NC State, Stanford, and App State in Death Valley, and travel to Tallahassee and face old friend DJU who they ran out of town for…Cade Klubnik. While admirable, I doubt a 3-2 record will have the Tiger faithful and Dabo especially reacting sensibly. 

Tate: Not a bad answer at all there Rand, but I’m afraid Klubnik is taking a 40-point loss to the Dawgs in Week 1 regardless. Penn State spent four years from 2019 to 2022 with Sean Clifford, one of the most average college quarterbacks in the history of the world. During those years the Nittany Lions won 11 games two times and were pretty clearly the third-best program in the Big Ten behind Ohio State and (more recently) Michigan, but their fans always believed they were just a game-changing QB away from winning the whole damn conference. This feeling was heightened in 2022 when five-star true freshman Drew Allar flashed in occasional relief of Clifford, and seemed primed to be the long-awaited messiah of Penn State quarterback play. 2023 was the year… until Allar was aggressively average (and sometimes outright bad) as Penn State once again finished as the third-best team in the Big Ten, going 11-2 with losses to Ohio State and Michigan. But it is now a 12-team playoff world and Allar, entering his third year, does have the natural talent to take Penn State to the next level. I’m certainly skeptical that it happens, but I’m intrigued to see if he can do it.

Which team has a QB battle going on this spring that you’re keeping your eye on?

Tate: How serious a quarterback battle will end up being is a bit hard to predict in the spring, but I’m very interested to follow Florida’s QB situation through the offseason and into fall camp. The Gators return 2023 starter Graham Mertz, who for all intents and purposes actually did a pretty nice job last season. He’d be the clear-cut starter in 2024 were it not for the fact that Florida just brought in 5-star DJ Lagway out of Texas, who was so good in his HS senior season that he ended up passing Dylan Raiola as the #1 QB prospect according to most recruiting services. I’d be pretty surprised if Mertz is not the starter for Florida in their opener against Miami, but if there’s anybody who won’t be scared to challenge him all offseason, it’s the 5-star kid who willingly decided to go play for Billy Napier’s Florida program in the year of our lord 2024. This kid clearly does not care about his own well-being, he’s not going to be phased by some cute little quarterback competition.

Rand: Now is not the time to discuss how Mack Brown squandered two straight NFL QBs in Sam Howell and Drake Maye in a winnable ACC. But if it were, I’d mention how refusing to employ a viable defensive coordinator is problem number one, two, and three. Geoff Collins comes over after flaming out as the head coach at Georgia Tech to lead the defense that’s usually chock-full of talent, but the QB battle between grad transfer Max Johnson and redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell will define the offseason in Chapel Hill. After starting his career at LSU before transferring to Texas A&M, Max Johnson comes to UNC with big game starting experience but inconsistent playing time because of injuries and being passed over in favor of Conner Weigman & Myles Brennan. Johnson isn’t a real running threat like Howell and Maye were, but at 6’5 he can certainly sling it. Conner Harrell is a true dual threat who has been in the system for three years and is getting rave reviews for his loyalty to the program for whatever that’s worth in CFB these days. Outside of a Week 1 trip to Minnesota and a November trip to Tallahassee, UNC gets all of their tough games at home and the rest of their schedule is a relative cakewalk. Akin to Clemson, UNC has playmakers at the skill positions and defense but QB play and their laughable propensity of self-inflicted coaching decisions will determine how far the Tar Heels will go in a winnable ACC. 

Which team is just a QB away from pushing for a playoff spot?

Rand: Oh Jesus we’re going the ‘this is their year’ thing with NC State again? I’ve been walking this Earth for 27 years and I’m sure those older than me have heard the same thing since their last ACC Championship in 1979. Duke, UNC, and Wake have all won one since then but who’s counting? Anyway, Dave Doeren is a model of consistency in Raleigh in leading the Wolfpack to eight or nine wins in 7 of his 11 seasons but has yet to eclipse (not a pun) the 10-win threshold which State hasn’t done since Philip Rivers in 2002. It might be an irrelevant, manufactured stat but when UNC, Duke, and Wake (2x) have all done it since, the Wolfpack faithful take notice. After a 9-4 year but a loss in the vaunted Pop-Tarts Bowl, State returns Freshman All-American receiver Kevin Concepcion who will spell transfer WRs Wesley Grimes (Wake Forest) and Noah Rogers (Ohio State) along with Duke RB transfer Jordan Waters. Most importantly they bring in former Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall who once proclaimed he only pisses teal but I’m guessing he pisses red now and hopefully not because of kidney stones. The Wolfpack have a Week 2 game against Tennessee in Charlotte which should see a soldout crowd if there’s not a NASCAR race the same weekend and travel to Death Valley two weeks later. Aside from matchups with the other three Tobacco Road teams, their schedule is a breeze so while a double-digit winning season is attainable, I fully expect to be writing about their eight or nine-win 2024 season next April and that 2025 is most definitely their year. 

Tate: I’ll go a little off the wall here and say Boise State. From Jared Zabransky to Kellen Moore to Brett Rypien, Boise made a name for itself behind great QB play in the late 2000s to the early 2010s, but once Rypien went off to the NFL after the 2018 season, the Broncos’ QB play has fallen off a cliff and their program has subsequently lost some of its luster. Enter Malachi Nelson, a 5-star recruit in the class of 2023 who went to USC for his freshman season last year to learn behind Caleb Williams and under Lincoln Riley, before surprisingly deciding to transfer to Boise State a few months ago. Given that Boise has arguably the best roster in the entire Group of Five, I’d be far from shocked if the Broncos having even just above-average QB play from Nelson propelled them into the G5 playoff spot that’s guaranteed in the new 12-team format. 

What team absolutely needs to hit the transfer portal for a quarterback this spring?

Tate: Are we seriously just running this thing back with Payton Thorne, Auburn? This man threw for under 100 yards five separate times last year! Auburn landed one of the most talented receiver prospects in years in freshman Cam Coleman - are you actually going to force this kid to try to catch passes from Payton Thorne all year in the era of the transfer portal? Good luck. There is talk that Auburn is loading up their war chests for a big transfer portal push in 2025, but people at Auburn have a tendency to have a short leash with coaches, to say the least. Hugh Freeze might need to think long and hard (that’s what he said, on a company phone a few years ago) about hitting the portal for some QB help over the next few weeks.

Rand: There’s a good chance Michigan breaks Georgia’s 2022 record for most players drafted in a single NFL draft and one of them will be QB J.J. McCarthy. In his wake, he leaves a Wolverine QB room with a bunch of ‘who the hell are you’ looking dudes. Alex Orji is a redshirt sophomore who exclusively ran the wildcat Michigan last year but might actually know how to throw it as evidenced by his career passing line of 1-1 for 5 yards. That singular, magnificent pass came in 2022. Fellow redshirt sophomore Jayden Denagel is a stellar 4-5 for 50 yards and 1 TD in his illustrious career as a mop up duty QB while sixth year Indiana transfer Jack Tuttle has the most experience but hasn’t started a game since 2021. Between the three QBs on the roster we’ve got eight years of experience, five total starts (all from Tuttle), and less than 1,000 passing yards. I don’t have a degree from Michigan which according to Michigan alumni is the pinnacle of human achievement but I’m guessing they might want to hit the portal for QB help next week. 

4&F March Madness Bracket Pool

Shoutout to Kaitlyn Darcy who won the inaugural 4&F bracket pool taking home six Benjamin’s and bragging rights over anyone reading this. Quite frankly, no one had any chance of beating her bracket which was 99.9% accurate and ranked in the top 14,000 of the 22 million brackets entered in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge. For reference, second place winner Cole Schweers was 100 points behind her and ranked in the 165,000’s. Don’t spend your $10 all in one place Cole!

Text of the Week

“Hell yeah I guess they’re going to the wedding” - Alex Sztejnberg after Tate informed him the Detroit Pistons were staying at their hotel in Memphis

Have a great weekend and we’ll talk to you again next Thursday. 

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.