The Entire State of Florida is Under Investigation while Ohio State is Throwing Hundreds in the Club

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We’re winding down the back end of the coaching carousel, and the best players in the transfer portal are finalizing their spring semester schedules at their new schools. That means Rand and Tate will soon be able to begin writing about what we’re all interested in - court cases in West Virginia and legal semantics over TV contracts that seem primed to fundamentally change college athletics as we know them. We’ll get into that in the coming months, but for now, we still have to track the transfer decisions of a bunch of 19-year-olds and Mountain West coaching searches, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Coaching Carousel

As of Sunday night, the coaching carousel has finally stopped spinning, but that doesn’t mean it won’t ramp back up again. There were reports over the weekend that NFL teams are kicking the tires on bringing current UCLA head coach Chip Kelly aboard for an OC position. If you remember from a few months ago, there were also reports that Kelly was going to get canned from UCLA and Arizona’s Jedd Fisch would be candidate number one, two, and three. Of course, that dream is dead with Fisch moving over to Washington. UCLA is a mystifying program, steeped in futility, but has the prestige and history to be a perennial contender, especially in the 12-team playoff era. The problem is, it doesn’t seem like Kelly or the administration wants to put in the money or effort to compete at a high level like a Texas A&M or rival USC is willing to do. The Bruins lost freshman phenom QB Dante Moore Jr to Oregon in the portal and finished 76th in the 247 Sports team recruiting rankings. It’s inexcusable that teams like Western Michigan, UNLV, and Charlotte finished higher than the Bruins in those rankings. Take a drive through UCLA’s campus and then tell me if you’d rather spend your football career in Kalamazoo or worse yet, suburban Charlotte. Maybe a move on from Kelly is the best move for all parties involved, but whether it’s Kelly or insert-next-coach-here, they’ve got their work cut out from them in 2024 and beyond. In addition to playing old PAC-12 foes Oregon, USC, and Washington, UCLA has to travel to Baton Rouge, Lincoln, and State College. If Chip leaves maybe they can call up Tulsa head coach Kevin Wilson and bring him to Westwood after the Golden Hurricanes finished 21 spots higher than the Bruins in recruiting rankings. At least he might care…

As for the open FBS vacancies that were filled over the weekend, let’s stay out west with former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo who was just named the head coach of San Jose State. Niumatalolo will not be bringing his triple option attack to the Spartans and will hire an OC who knows what a forward pass is. This is an interesting move for the Spartans who are getting one of the most respected head coaches in America, but one who was passed up for multiple head coaching gigs in the past because of his triple option offense. Back in 2018, after Arizona fired Rich Rodriguez, it was rumored Niumatalolo was a candidate to run the program until star QB Khalil Tate took to Twitter by proclaiming “I didn’t come to Arizona to run the tripple option”. The job ended up going to Kevin Sumlin who flamed out after 3 bowless seasons and an inability to get his QB to spell-check his tweets. If Niumatalolo is successful at SJSU without running the triple option, it might show proof of concept for someone like Jeff Monken at Army or Troy Calhoun at Air Force to get a bigger job. Unfortunately, it would likely entail them ditching the triple option, one of America’s last standing cultural pillars, as well. 

South Alabama replaced Kane Wommack who left for the Alabama DC role with former Texas QB and Houston coach Major Applewhite. Applewhite succeeded Tom Herman at Houston after he left for Texas but after a 7-5 and 8-5 years culminating in bowl losses including a 70-14 loss in the Armed Forces Bowl to Army, he was rightfully canned. Maybe it works out for Applewhite and South Al who are in the easier division of the Sun Belt Conference and have a surprising army of rich boosters bankrolling the program, but we shall see. After all, Applewhite's career coaching record is a measly 15-11, and in 2009 while on Mack Brown’s staff at Texas, he was reprimanded for having an inappropriate relationship with a student. Those two facts are seemingly unrelated but it does tell us Applewhite sucks on & off the field. Heyo! Have fun in Mobile. 

Applewhite isn’t the only coordinator in Alabama who is getting lucrative coaching opportunities despite his checkered past. Out on the Plains, Hugh Freeze is considering former Maryland head coach and Texas A&M defensive coordinator DJ Durkin a look for Auburn’s open DC role. Durkin was the head coach of the Terps when 19-year-old OL Jordan McNair dropped dead following an offseason workout. He was placed on administrative leave but was brought back by AD Damon Evans after an investigation into toxic culture allegations was seemingly proven unfounded. Durkin held a welcome back team meeting in which players walked out and he was fired the next day. The fact Durkin was brought back by Maryland and given coaching opportunities after likely killing a player is reprehensible, but this is college athletics after all. Evans, who is still the AD at Maryland, is infamous for his time as Georgia's AD from 2004-2010. Evans was fired following a DUI arrest in which he told the officer "I am not trying to bribe you but I am the Athletic Director of the University of Georgia." Better yet, there was a pair of women’s underwear between his legs which seemingly belonged to his 28-year-old female passenger who was also arrested for disorderly conduct. Evans’ wife was, for some reason, not very happy about all of this. Applewhite, Freeze, Evans, and Durkin continue to get second, third, and fourth chances and show us that whether you’re culpable in a murder, caught texting sex workers off a company phone, caught having inappropriate relations or bribing a police officer, there’s a place for you in college athletics. 

Pressure in Columbus

Ohio State has had one of the three most talented rosters in college football for over a decade, but the Buckeyes have not won a national title in nearly ten years and have lost three consecutive games to bitter rival Michigan while watching them win a national title of their own earlier this month. There is more pressure on head coach Ryan Day headed into 2024 than any coach has felt in Columbus in decades, and the pressure is only increasing as Ohio State continues to build what might end up being the most talented roster in the country next season. 

It started with grabbing QB Will Howard from Kansas State to come take over behind center next year. It’s unclear what sort of NIL deal Howard received, but here is what Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said it costs to grab a good QB out of the portal back in November. Then the Buckeyes pulled RB Quinshon Judkins, unquestionably the best running back in the SEC, away from Ole Miss. Again, it’s not entirely clear what Judkins’ NIL deal with Ohio State looks like, but reports out of Oxford say that Judkins initially turned down a $750K deal with the Rebels, and counter-offered at $1.1 million which Ole Miss declined before he officially transferred to OSU. It’s possible that Judkins’ decision was not entirely about NIL money, but it seems pretty clear he is going to be compensated very well up there in Columbus. Star wide receiver Emeka Egbuka also announced he’d be returning to OSU next season, and considering he was likely to be a finge first round or at least second round pick, we’re preeeetttyyyy sure he’s not coming back for free.

THEN, Ohio State pulled the heist of the century on Friday by landing Alabama transfer safety Caleb Downs, arguably the best football player in the country, away from Georgia. The entire Georgia Football media circuit was absolutely certain that Downs would be signing with Georgia - in fact, we now know that Downs and his family spent 2 hours at a lunch with Kirby Smart and other Georgia staffers, signed an NIL deal with Georgia and even began the process of officially enrolling at UGA around 4:00pm on Friday. At 8:45pm, he officially announced he’d be transferring to Ohio State. Reports out of Athens claim Downs’ NIL deal with the Buckeyes is upwards of $1.2 million, which is absolutely insane for a defensive back. 

Finally, Ohio State reeled in 5-star QB Julian Sayin, who enrolled at Alabama just weeks ago but entered the portal following Nick Saban’s retirement. Ohio State already brought in highly touted QB Air Noland in this year’s recruiting class which certainly cost them some NIL funds, and while OSU will be rolling with Will Howard this coming season, there’s no question Sayin also cost the Buckeyes some more cash. Ryan Day also went out and hired Bill O’Brien from the New England Patriots to be the Buckeyes’ new offensive coordinator. O’Brien was the offensive coordinator at Alabama during Bryce Young’s years in Tuscaloosa where he spent time recruiting Saying, and is known as one of the brighter offensive minds in the entire sport.

Way-too-early top 25 types of lists have had Georgia as the consensus #1 team headed into 2024, but these expensive additions to Ohio State’s roster have certainly vaulted the Buckeyes up the rankings. There are rumored numbers floating around that suggest Ohio State is spending upwards of $15 million on next year’s roster, and even that may be low considering the reported numbers on just the few individual transfers discussed here. The heavy transfer and/or heavy NIL approach to roster building is becoming more prominent as we enter this new world of college football, but it seems notable that the last four national champions have been Alabama, Georgia (2x), and Michigan - three schools that are known for building their roster from the high school ranks without offering massive NIL deals, and relying heavily on internal development rather than throwing absurd deals at players in the transfer portal. The heat is already on Ryan Day in a big way, and it will now be absolutely paramount that OSU plays to what seems to be its insane potential. Day can not afford to lose to Michigan for the 4th straight year, and he certainly can not afford blowing it in the playoffs with what may be the most talented team in the entire country. We’re far from Ohio State fans here at 4th & Forever but even if we were, while we’d be excited to be landing all of these wildly talented transfers, we’d be equally as anxious about what it may mean for the program if the most talented team in recent OSU memory can’t get it done in 2024. We’re teetering on a decade without a natty here, Ryan. Don’t waste all this money.

Florida, Florida, Florida

What do Miami, Florida State, and Florida all have in common besides being in the same state and perennially underperforming (sans 2023 FSU)? All three programs have been punished or are currently being investigated by the NCAA for NIL violations. We discussed last week FSU’s NIL punishment which resulted in OC Alex Atkins getting a three-game suspension and two-year probation among other penalties. Down in South Beach, LifeWallet CEO and punchable face John Ruiz got the Miami Women’s Basketball team placed on probation after he had a meal (read: impermissible benefit) with the Cavinder twins who transferred in after signing massive NIL deals with Ruiz. The Cavinder twins are NIL and social media darlings as they have a combined NIL valuation of $1.7 million which is about the same as Bama QB Jalen Milroe and Texas QB Quinn Ewers. Ruiz is likely a narcissist who regularly googles himself and tries to silence any negative media attention. So, John, if you’re reading this we suggest you handle your personal business before handing out any more lucrative NIL deals. After all, LifeWallet is under SEC investigation and might be delisted from the Nasdaq after accounting errors caused you to lose over $3 billion in company valuation. Oh, and that’s the Securities and Exchange Commission, not the Southeastern Conference. Not to be outdone, Florida is now under NCAA investigation following the recruitment of former 5-star QB Jaden Rashada. Rashada signed a $13.85 million NIL deal with a Gators collective but turns out the collective and boosters overpromised, underdelivered, and couldn’t pay Rashada the full amount owed. The collective has since been shut down and Rashada signed with Arizona State following the fiasco. All three schools play each other next year including Florida - Miami (FL) in Week 1 which is going to result in the losing fan base committing arson. 

Hope you have a great day and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

Thanks for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this project.

Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers. If you’d like to update your subscription settings, please do so using the following link: 4th & Forever Subscription Settings

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.