The Day Hath Finally Come - Michigan Wins & Saban Retires

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. In the span of 48 hours college football was rocked with two unfathomable events that moronic pundits like ourselves never thought we’d live to see. In addition to those two topics, we also cover OSHA violations, how to make (even more) money off Tate, and Thailand’s newest visa applicant, so without further ado, let’s get to it.

The Day Hath Finally Come: Act I

If you live under a rock and missed the coaching news of the week, then allow us to catch you up. After previous stints in NFL and LSU, the defensive mastermind, indomitable, titan, and GOAT announced his retirement from Alabama yesterday. College football will not be the same without him and every SEC coordinator just let out a collective sigh of relief. That’s right, on Monday it was announced Alabama DC Kevin Steele was announcing his retirement. Alright, even though everything we just said is accurate let’s cut to the chase because HOLY SHIT Nick Saban retired last night. The run on toilet paper at your local grocery store is not a sign we’re on the brink of another pandemic, rather it was your Auburn fan neighbor rolling their own house. No, really, Auburn fans rolled Toomer’s Corner to celebrate the retirement. 

Akin to when Tom Brady retired, Saban will go down as the undisputed GOAT and any arguments made otherwise are merely for clicks, or you still wear houndstooth. His 6 national championships in 12 years (7 total) will likely never be matched and he not only changed college football but what made his run so impressive is he changed with college football. He won with a team like 2023 Michigan: stout D, run it down your throats, undeniably overpower you in all facets of the game. See: 2009, 2011, 2012. He won with a team like 2019 LSU: we’re going to score a touchdown every single time we touch the ball and if you punt once, the game is over. See: 2017, 2020. Even though this clip is from 2019, his offenses were so dominant that his receivers would play rock paper scissors to determine who got to run the TD route. The dude won the 2015 national championship with Jake freaking Coker at QB. We’re not going to bore you with numbers on his accolades and legacy, because when you’re the GOAT, you don’t need to prove it.

The immediate question atop everyone’s mind is ‘now what?’ We personally believe the idea that a lot of coaches are going to be turned off by being the guy to follow Nick Saban is overplayed. Every college football coach is a narcissistic psychopath and any coach believes they can have success at Alabama. Could they do what Nick Saban just did? Of course not, and they might get fired for going 10-2 one too many times, but you can put up with a lot of shit when you’re paid $8 million/year. In fact, you’d have to be a bumbling idiot, and dare we say intentionally negligent, to fail at a place that offers the resources and talent Alabama affords. Although Jimbo Fisher can fire a bazooka through the merits of that theory. As for Saban himself, According to this report by Front Office Sports, it’s very possible the next time we see him is on the set of College GameDay. We all know Corso’s time is quickly approaching and as entertaining as he is, Pat McAfee isn’t is ESPN’s good graces right now to say the least.

Akin to Urban Meyer leaving Ohio State, Texas firing Tom Herman, or USC firing Clay Helton, Alabama is one of the 5-7 jobs in college football that when it opens and start prophesizing candidate lists, you flip the funnel upside down and start with who’s not on it, because every single coach in the country except a select few will not pick up the phone. Once you cross off Kirby Smart at Georgia, you’re already at the bottom of the barrel. One could argue there’s no way Brian Kelly at LSU would want this job but remember how he left Notre Dame? He’d answer. Lincoln Riley is probably happy (and handsomely paid at USC) but given how this past season went, Alabama might not even pick up the phone. Ryan Day at Ohio State would be a fantastic choice and because the Ohio State fanbase is the most ungrateful in all THE land, he’d happily answer. Point is, until a new coach is named that isn’t Kirby Smart*, every single coach is America is on the list, so let’s go through some.

*The cynic in Rand would be more than happy to outline reasons why Kirby should leave Georgia for Bama if for no other reason than to piss off Tate. Let’s table that argument for later.

Dan Lanning at Oregon is going to be the hottest name out there given what he’s done in just two short years in Eugene. He’s got extensive SEC experience from his time at UGA and was an Alabama graduate assistant before that. He vehemently denied any rumors about his interest with Texas A&M, but as we outlined above, when Alabama calls, you answer. Lanning has a $20 million dollar buyout attached to his contract which is believed to be the most expensive in the country, but don’t think for a second it’ll scare away Alabama boosters. Did you see what Texas A&M boosters just did? $20 mil is one less Busch Light keg at the tailgate. It’s been widely reported that Kalen DeBoer at Washington has a contract extension sitting on his desk that he has yet to sign. Just last year when Alabama was in the OC market they tried to hire away Ryan Grubb away but he wanted to stay with DeBoer. They’d be a fantastic package deal even though neither one has SEC experience. If Lane Kiffin (more on him in a second) is the Portal King, then Mike Norvell at FSU is the Portal Prince. He doesn’t have SEC experience either, but the turnaround he engineered at FSU is remarkable, and if his star QB gets injured, he won’t have to worry about missing the playoff when your program is named Alabama. James Franklin at Penn State will garner some attention but in no world should Alabama hire that pinhead no matter how impressive his Vanderbilt run was. Put Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame on the list too. Last on the ‘These guys are really good CFB coaches list’ is Steve Sarkisian at Texas. The old OC under Saban who like Norvell, has brought a once proud program back from the ashes. He’d be crazy to leave Texas given all the talent he’s amassed but he’s as good of an option as any. 

Now let’s get into the fun names and start in Oxford with Kiffin. The other former Bama OC who knows what kind of pressure cooker coaching in the upper echelon of college football is like. It’s been widely assumed he’d leave Ole Miss for a bigger program given the opportunity and once Auburn opted for Hugh Freeze last year, everyone started pinning Florida as a likely destination if they fire Napier. Kiffin has been fired over the phone and called a disgraceful liar by Al Davis of the Raiders, left Tennessee after one year in the middle of the night for USC, then fired on a tarmac and left at the airport by USC administration. Kiffin had a backbone of titanium and won’t let a few dip spitting Alabama boosters get to him after a close loss. On the other end of the coaches who can handle the media and boosters spectrum we have Dabo. With this Bama opening, we will finally have the answer to the burning question of would Dabo actually leave Clemson for his alma mater. Dabo’s allure is a lot different than it was in 2019 when he beat Alabama 44-16 in the national championship, but he’s still a damn good ball coach and a fascinating candidate. If Dabo had been embracing NIL and the transfer portal, we think he’d be call #1, and not Lanning. Maybe Dabo doesn’t want to leave and is happy going 9-4 with a Gator Bowl trophy to hang his sweater on. Clemson will gladly hold onto him. But if Dabo agrees to adapt to the changing times like Saban famously did in 2012 with his “is this what we want college football to be” quote, he could rediscover that national championship formula whether it’s in Tuscaloosa or at Little Ol’ Clemson. Would former Washington and Boise State coach Chris Petersen come out of retirement for Bama? Likely not, but certainly worth a conversation. Saban was famously the position coach of the DBs and saw immense success coaching that unit elevating Alabama into the undisputed DBU program. He also won damn near every recruiting battle he was in and has pulled off some signing day stunners. Who else fits this mold? Deion Sanders. Nothing is out of the question with this coaching search. 

One more point on the coaching candidate pool. Given the foundation Saban built, the prestige that comes with the job, and immense opportunity for immediate success, there’s potential Bama could bring in someone from the NFL…where they brought Saban from. If you didn’t hear, Pete Carroll was just fired by the Seahawks and reportedly wanted to continue coaching. Mike Vrabel was fired by the Titans but coached at Ohio State before his NFL stint. We can also think of another extremely prominent NFL coach who might get kicked to the curb and also happens to be best friends with Saban. That’d be Bill Belichick. Most coaches leave college for the NFL because they get burnt out on the recruiting trail, transfer portal movements, NIL, and as we’re seeing at this very moment, college football doesn’t have an offseason. The ‘CEO’ role of a CFB head coach is starting to gain traction. More head coaches are turning into quasi GMs and letting their OCs and DCs handle the on the field coaching and responsibilities. We saw it at LSU with Coach O, Jim Harbaugh doesn’t call plays, and Saban didn’t either. If Alabama can woo an NFL coach, they have the foundation and most importantly, $$$, to pull it off.  

Saban retiring is the first domino to fall and the dust might not settle until mid-February. Once the new coach is in place, which according to this report is likely to happen in the next 72 hours, they are going have to fend off every program and NIL collective in the country to keep the current Alabama roster as in tact as they can. Freshman DB Caleb Downs might have to admit himself into the Aaron Rodgers darkness room retreat with how many calls he’s about to get. Same with QB Jalen Milroe and incoming 5-star QB Julian Sayin. Go back and look at the schools of the coaches we just listed above. If Alabama brings in a sitting head coach, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out the subsequent dominoes to fall. What if FSU opens? Hello Deion. Oregon opens and now QBs Dante Moore & Dillon Gabriel are back on the transfer market. Texas opens and now Arch hits the portal. Saban built a death star at Alabama. That death star just blew up and the shockwaves are going to be felt at every corner of the sport.

Tate here: Rand already eloquently surmised Nick Saban and what may be next at Alabama. But I couldn’t let him go without saying a few words of my own. Nick Saban is the greatest to ever do it, and will forever be the greatest to ever do it. I know a lot of Georgia read our newsletter - Kirby has a real shot to break Saban’s records, it’s true. But nobody will encapsulate the sport, change it, and command so much attention from it, the way Nick Saban has. Nobody will ever take over the entire sport the way he did. Maybe you know me for talking nonsense about Alabama, talking trash about the way we’ve taken over. Maybe a lot of that is true. But at the end of the day, nobody is Nick Saban. At the end of the day, Kirby came from Nick Saban. At the end of the day, the reason Georgia is the best program in the country right now can be drawn back to Nick Saban. The sport was, and is, better with him in it. You will never catch me claiming anything otherwise. Congratulations to Nick Saban on the greatest career of all time. He’ll always have inspired everyone in the sport to be better.

This is a sad day.

Rand’s Prediction on who they should hire: Alabama doesn’t open everyday and it’s inevitable the program will backslide somewhat. AD Greg Byrne should go get Ryan Day at Ohio State. Also imagine an offseason where Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan are all searching for new coaches in mid-January.

Tate’s Prediction on who they should hire: Somebody who can reinvigorate the program with new and fun energy. Lanning as the first choice, Steve Sarkisian, Lane Kiffin, or Glenn Schumann as the 2nd choice, anybody else is probably a failure until the 2nd hire. They have an opportunity to ignite new fire into this program - they should take advantage by hiring an energetic guy who can recruit.

Rand’s Prediction on who they will hire: The smart money should be on Mike Norvell at Florida State. His buyout is less than $4 million and I’m interested to see if FSU’s bitching about money, getting left out of the playoff, and suing their own conference has worn on him. 

Tate’s Prediction on who they will hire: Steve Sarkisian. Leaving Texas may be insane, but it’s my personal opinion that Texas High School Football has lost its luster on the lines of scrimmage to a large degree - the big beefy freaks of nature come from the southeast these days, and having those guys is what it takes to win in college football. He’s also a borderline sociopath and, in my opinion, will want to prove he can do it at Alabama.

The Day Hath Finally Come: Act II

It was unavoidable we were going to get a clunker of a game after the last-second thrillers we saw in the semifinals and even though Washington kept it close for 75% of the game, after Michigan’s first drive, the outcome felt inevitable.

The most enlightening thing we learned while watching the game other than Washington’s right tackle needs to move to Thailand and never show face in the western hemisphere again - at least there he can hold up tuk-tuk traffic without penalty - is thanks to the intrepid & noble reporting by ESPN sideline reporter Holly Rowe, Michigan QB JJ McCarthy brushes his teeth with his non-dominant left hand to stimulate alpha waves in his brain. What a freaking nerd but we’d have to manufacture alpha waves & masculinity too if our top WR was a dude named Cornelius Johnson. 

Here are McCarthy’s passing yard totals from Michigan’s final 6 games, 5 of which were against ranked opponents: 140, 221, 147, 148, 141, 60. It defies logic and likely quantum physics why McCarthy is still touted as an elite QB and legitimately might get picked in the first round after putting up those putrid numbers. It’s a testament, or condemnation depending on your viewpoint, Michigan was able to accomplish what it did by thinking forward passing = dead puppies. Jim Harbaugh might as well have used Knute Rocke’s playbook. He probably did for all we know. Anyway, we begged for the past two seasons that Michigan should let McCarthy throw the ball and open up the playbook. He’s a former 5-star, has all the tools in the world, and based on Rowe’s reporting, is a massive nerd that society needs to make fun of for throwing ill-advised interceptions. Who knows if he will succeed at the next level, but Harbaugh’s unwillingness to let him cook robbed us of making Michigan football games aesthetically pleasing which is a crime against humanity. 

Before the game, future Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh went on record and proudly proclaimed McCarthy is the best Michigan QB of all time which was eye-opening because we didn’t even know that was up for debate. If you’re asking if that contradicts everything we just said about JJ, let us explain. Brady sucked in college, their last national championship-winning QB was Brian Griese who boasts a tidy 58% career completion percentage (McCarthy’s is 68%) but STILL owns the school record for passing TDs in a game with 4! That’s like 1 per quarter! For reference, Michael Penix Jr. passed for 4+ TDs in five different games this year. Chad Henne was around forever and holds all the school passing records but never beat Ohio State and lost to App State which is an automatic disqualifier (that’s a compliment for you App fans out there). Denard Robinson was on the cover of the last NCAA Football video game and known for not tying his shoes, but on the field he was really fast and that’s about it. Since Brady was drafted in 2000, Michigan has had only 4 QBs drafted. Three went in the 6th or 7th rounds, while Henne went in the 2nd round but was a career backup. Robinson was drafted as a WR thanks to the NFL being slightly more racist than they are now, but the point is McCarthy has a chance to be the highest-drafted Michigan QB since…Jim Harbaugh who went 1st round to Da Bears in 1987. Congrats JJ, you’re the Michigan signal caller GOAT but please go back to brushing your teeth with your right hand. It’s more efficient and likely sanitary.

It is genuinely impressive that Michigan was able to hold their team together after all they went through off the field. We’ve talked ad nauseum about their sign-stealing scandal and the multiple Harbaugh suspensions, but they proved it on the field and left no doubt. I mean just look at this list of some of the starting QBs Michigan defeated. If you can match even four of the eight with their school, Tate will Venmo you $20, also, get a life. Mason Garcia, Doug Brumfield, Camden Orth, Gavin Wimsatt, Katin Houser, Heinrich Haarberg, Athan Kaliakmanis, Tayven Jackson, and Iowa (QB name not needed there). We’ll put the answers at the bottom of this newsletter because we did not make this up. The only person who did any work in Ann Arbor before the Penn State game on November 11th was evidently Connor Stallions. At least next year with the 4 west coast teams joining, Michigan will actually compete in relevant games before Halloween.

Lastly, we have to pour one out for the Washington Huskies. Starting RB Dillon Johnson was dealing with a left knee problem and a right ankle sprain and on the first play, he sprained his left ankle but continued playing. QB Michael Penix Jr should file an OSHA violation for having to take the field down three touchdowns and what looked like three broken ribs and/or a busted right shoulder. We’re kidding about the OSHA violation part, student-athletes aren’t employees and don’t get rights or workers comp, silly. Admiral effort & season from the Huskies, but Monday’s game was a painful wake-up call of things to come in the BIG 10, namely October 5, 2024 when they visit the Big House.

Congrats, Sam

Rand here and it is with great honor that I can officially report that Sam Weinbach fended off Tate for the inaugural 4th & Forever Bowl Pick ‘Em crown. Tate texted me that if he won the group ‘would’ve been great for 4&F optics.’ Which is true, but only if I were the one who won the group. Imagine the conspiracies and potential revolt if Tate, who need I remind everyone went 29-48-2 for his betting picks on the year, were to show an aptitude for picking games when YOUR money is on the line? Luckily, we are spared from such distrust, and rest assured I fell in line with my betting picks on the year by finishing tied for 18th and slightly above .500. Unfortunately, my father thought it’d be a good idea to pick UNC to beat WVU and cost him a shot at beating Tate’s dad whom he finished 1 game behind. He picked 22 other games incorrectly but I’m legally obligated to inform the greater public he picked the Heels. The shame & stain on the Fisher name will not wash off easily. We will have a chance to redeem ourselves in March with the 4th & Forever bracket pool.

Texts of the Week

“Tate goes 0-infinity in the regular season and he actually thinks some will steal his championship pick?” - Jay Reed

“Dude what the f*ck is this game” - Robbie Eisenman

“Washington has the weight of America (minus Michigan) on their shoulders. They have to get it done.” - Eli Shankman

Hope you have a great long weekend and we will talk to you again on Tuesday.

Answers to the school of opposing Michigan QBs

Mason Garcia - East Carolina

Doug Brumfield - UNLV

Camden Orth - Bowling Green

Gavin Wimsatt - Rutgers

Katin Houser - Michigan State

Heinrich Haarberg - Nebraska

Athan Kaliakmanis - Minnesota

Tayven Jackson - Indiana

A sack of potatoes - Iowa

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.