Fixing What Ain't Broke & "Hey, Remember That Guy?"

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. In this edition, we discuss why the Big 10 & SEC are trying to ruin the second iteration of the expanded playoff before we’ve even seen the first. We also play a rousing game of every millennial white dude’s favorite bar activity of “Hey, remember that guy?” So without further ado, let’s get to it!

New Playoff Proposal Round Infinity

As we briefly discussed last week, college football leaders finalized the format for the long-awaited 12-team playoff that will be in place for the 2024 and 2025 seasons, and then immediately started doing what they seem to love doing the most these days: ruining what is great about college football. Following CFP meetings in Dallas, Yahoo! Sports’ Ross Dellenger came out with a somewhat shocking report that conference commissioners seem to be focused on a 14-team format that would come into place after the 2025 playoff concludes, and the difference between the two formats extends far beyond just adding two more teams. The prevailing 14-team model would include eleven automatic bids - 3 to the SEC, 3 to the Big Ten, 2 each to the ACC and Big 12, 3 at large teams, and 1 spot saved for the highest-ranked group of five team - with almost zero emphasis being placed on winning your conference. Well, unless you’re the Big Ten or the SEC, whose champions would automatically receive the 1 and 2 seeds and a bye in the first round regardless of anything else, in this format.

This is, of course, completely f*cking asinine. Not only because it turns much of the regular season into a wet paper towel, but because the divide doesn’t even make any sense! If we are creating automatic qualifier spots dedicated to specific conferences, why should the SEC agree to the same amount of bids as the Big Ten? The SEC has seen Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, and now Texas win national titles in the past 20 years. The Big Ten just had their second team outside of Ohio State win a national title in over 20 years less than two months ago - including all of the additions the conference made from the PAC 12. And why the hell should the ACC agree to the same amount of bids as the Big 12? Florida State and Clemson have won a combined 3 national titles since 2013 which is more than the Big 10 in the same time frame. The current Big 12 does not have a single program that can legitimately win a national title in football. Want to guess when the last current Big 12 members won a national title? That’d be Colorado in 1990 (split with Georgia Tech), BYU in 1984, TCU in 1938, and Oklahoma State in 1945. One of the last times an ACC team played in a national title game (Clemson in 2018), it absolutely annihilated a Nick Saban Alabama team - are we seriously going to predetermine that the Big Ten and SEC champions are just automatically better and/or more deserving of a bye than a theoretical 14-0 Seminoles team? WHY??? If you’re not in the Big Ten or SEC, what the f*ck is the point of even playing your conference championship game? Might we actually see teams rest their star players in that game since it's just an extra game with no real meaning that provides no shot at a bye? What the absolute f*ck are we doing here?

To be clear, the ACC and Big 12 will agree to having guaranteed two spots. Both conferences have certainly had seasons where a second team does not belong anywhere near a playoff for the national title. If this format was in place in 2019, Virginia would’ve gotten in from the ACC while a pedestrian Oklahoma State team might’ve snuck in from the Big 12. Can you name a single player off either of those teams? The QBs were Bryce Perkins and Spencer Sanders and the teams were 9-3 and 8-4 respectively. With the ACC on the verge of collapse pending FSU’s ongoing legal dispute to get out, a guaranteed two spots is far from a bad thing for the conference. The Big 12 will just take what they can get. But all of this is caused by nothing but greed from what are now the two most powerful institutions in college athletics - the Big Ten and the SEC. The two conferences beginning to flex their muscles was an inevitability, but seeing it happen in real time, in this particular way, is incredibly disheartening for the future of the sport we all love.

To explain the conundrum that the expanded playoff will be incredible even though the SEC and Big 10 are doing everything in their power to ruin it before it even starts, we looked back at three different seasons to illustrate what we can expect in the coming years. As a reminder, the bid breakout is as follows:

SEC: 3 teams with an automatic 1 or 2 seed

Big 10: 3 teams with an automatic 1 or 2 seed

ACC: 2 teams

Big 12: 2 teams

G5: 1 teams

At Large: 3 teams

We have to caveat that this is an inexact science given in the past few years we’ve seen the Pac-12 disintegrate, the Big 12 almost die, and the AAC has turned into Will Ferrell in Elf with how many teams have come and gone. Did you know Charlotte is in the American now? Or that Houston has changed conference three times in the past 12 years. Because of this realignment nonsense, we looked at the final CFB standings and factored in current conference affiliations. If we didn’t it’d get really sticky, especially with the Pac-12 teams so just trust us here. We also didn’t account for rematches because we’re lazy and this is all hypothetical, what do you care?

2014

1 Alabama // 8 Michigan State v 9 Ole Miss

4 Ohio State v 13 Georgia & 5 Baylor v 12 Georgia Tech

2 Oregon // 7 Mississippi State v 10 Arizona

3 Florida State v 14 Boise State & 6 TCU v 11 Kansas State

SEC - Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss 

Big 10 - Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan State

ACC - Florida State, Georgia Tech

Big 12 - TCU, Baylor

G5 - Boise State

At Large - Arizona, Kansas State, Georgia

If the 14-team playoff was in place in 2014, the top 4 would have been the same. This was the Marcus Mariota Heisman year and Ohio State infamously beat the Ducks & Alabama behind 3rd string QB Cardale Jones and RB Ezekiel Elliott. Pop quiz: who were the Heisman finalists with Mariota? Notre Dame LB Manti Te’o & Kansas State QB Collin Klein. High-powered offenses Baylor & TCU would be in the field after infamously being snubbed in favor of Ohio State because the Big 12 didn’t have a championship game. Pop quiz #2: can you name Alabama’s QB? That’d be one Blake Sims, but they had TJ Yeldon, Derrick Henry, Amari Cooper, and a disgusting defense that wasn’t enough to beat Bo Wallace & Ole Miss who’d also be in the field. As for the theoretical games themselves, you’d get Georgia & Nick Chubb rolling into the Horseshoe, Dak Prescott’s Mississippi State hosting Scooby Wright and Arizona, Baylor’s Bryce Petty launching bombs to KD Cannon and Corey Coleman against a triple option Georgia Tech team and TE Darren Waller. Even after all of that, we still haven’t mentioned Florida State had a QB by the name of Jameis Lanaed Winston. 

2018

1 Alabama // 8 UCF v 9 Washington

4 Notre Dame v 13 Utah & 5 Oklahoma v 12 West Virginia

2 Ohio State // 7 Michigan v 10 Florida

3 Clemson v 14 Syracuse & 6 Georgia v 11 LSU

SEC - Bama, Oklahoma, Georgia

BIG 10 - Ohio State, Michigan, Washington

ACC - Clemson, Syracuse

BIG 12 - West Virginia, Utah

G5 - UCF

At Large - Notre Dame, Florida, LSU

This is a prime example of a type of season where the Big 10 having an automatic bid would be a disgrace to college football. 2018 was the year Clemson & Trevor Lawrence eviscerated Tua & Bama in the national championship game 44-16. If the proposed playoff format were in place, Clemson would get bumped to the 3 slot and #6 ranked 11-1 Ohio State would get the 2 seed. This was the Ohio State team that lost 49-20 to Purdue. In what world would they deserve an automatic 2 seed over an undefeated Clemson? They didn’t even make the four-team playoff that year. However - this is where you see the conundrum play out that we mentioned with this format - you have storylines and players Walt Disney himself couldn’t dream of. Walt was also a racist so he’d likely have BYU as his #1 seed every year but we digress. 12-0 UCF and McKenzie Melton who ‘claimed’ a national title would draw a meh Washington team and with a win would put their money where their mouth is against Bama. Utah would go play QB Ian Book & Notre Dame while QB Shea Patterson and Michigan host QB Feleipe Franks and Florida. Speaking of subpar but confoundingly effective QBs, 9-3 Syracuse & QB Eric Dungey get their rematch against Clemson after the infamous Chase Brice game when Trevor Lawrence went down. Syracuse getting in the field is also a prime example of why the ACC should hold their nose and sign this deal. If not Syracuse who couldn’t play in the ACC title game because they were in the same division as Clemson, it’d be a 7-5 Pitt team who lost 42-10 to Clemson in the title game. Furthermore, you’ve got Kyler Murray who won the Heisman this year hosting Will Grier and West Virginia in a rematch of a 59-56 classic. The duo of Jake Fromm and Justin Fields at Georgia go against Joe Burrow and most of the LSU offense who would break every offensive record known to man the following year. This was a weird, weird, year and Clemson was damn good.

1 Alabama // 8 Ole Miss v 9 Oklahoma State

4 Cincinnati v 13 Wake Forest & 5 Notre Dame v 12 Pittsburgh

2 Michigan // 7 Baylor v 10 Michigan State

3 Georgia v 14 Louisiana & 6 Ohio State v 11 Utah

SEC - Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss

BIG 10 - Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State

ACC - Pittsburgh, Wake Forest

BIG 12 - Cincy, Baylor

G5 - Louisiana

At Large - Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Utah

This season is yet another prime example of why the Big 12 & ACC need to sign this deal immediately. The Big 10 & SEC will likely fill most if not all at large spots every year as going 8-4 or 9-3 in those conferences would likely mean more than going 11-2 in others. In 2021 the Big 12 would get four (!!) teams in the playoff which is more than any other conference. Alabama and Georgia would likely meet in national championship again (Georgia won) but not all is guaranteed when Bama & Georgia have Wake mfing Forest sitting in their bracket. The Deacs and Sam Hartman, without a doubt, obviously, unquestionably, would annihilate Desmond Ritter and that sham of a Cincinnati team before playing a Jack Coan-led Notre Dame team assuming they beat Kenny fake-slide-cheating-ass-you-know-what Pickett? Matt Corral and Spencer Sanders would be a fun QB matchup before getting killed by Bryce Young and Bama. It’s only right to assume Michigan State and Wake Forest product Kenneth Walker III would smack a Gerry Bohanan Baylor team before beating Michigan again, while Ohio State and Utah face off in a game that was actually played in the Rose Bowl where Jaxson Smith-Njigba hauled in a casual 3 TDs and 347 yds en route to a 48-45 win. It’s not a stretch to say Georgia’s 30+ year quest for redemption might’ve had to be put on hold for at least another year with this bracket. 

The point of all of this is to say, the whatever-team playoff is going to be great. More access for more teams is better for college football. What’s not great is the SEC & Big 10’s shameful power trip that could and will blow the whole thing up. 

4th & Forever Housekeeping

You might have noticed that you didn’t hear from us on Monday and are now reading this on Thursday. Yep, that’s how a calendar works. For at least the month of March and likely beyond, we’re releasing our newsletter on Thursday given some upcoming travel for both of us. If Florida State gets into bed with Saudi Arabia’s PIF or figures out a way to leave the ACC we will of course cover that instantaneously. 

March Madness is coming up and even though Wake & Georgia will likely not be participating for the 7th and 9th years in a row respectively, we will be doing a 4th & Forever March Madness Pool. For the eternally suffering UGA and Wake basketball fans out there: should we lean into the misery and create an NIT pool? No, definitely not…right? Anyways, the Bowl Pick ‘Em Group netted the winner a tidy $250 and we expect the pool for March Madness to approach $1,000. Official rules will be discussed closer to the tournament but make sure you remember your ESPN account password. 

Where in the World is Rand?

I’ll be in LA for the weekend for a shockingly personal, non-work-related trip. My friends and I don’t have solid plans because we’re men and don’t plan ahead on literally anything unless it’s football-related. Still, my only non-negotiable is my ass will be in front of two TVs simultaneously watching the Wake-Clemson & Duke-UNC games. I’m sure the LA influencers will love it when I hijack a bar TV and switch it from a documentary on Tomorrowland put on a Wake Forest basketball game. If you don’t know what Tomorrowland is, you don’t need to know. 

Texts of the Week (that may or may not be exclusively related to Wake Basketball)

“What the fuck”

“This is the life of a Wake Forest fan”

“Wake hoops is definitely cursed right now”

“I literally cannot believe that just happened”

“This team just knows how to twist the knife in a diehard fan”

“Thank god that baseball won”

“I stayed up to watch that shit?”

“I don’t know how Rand has been a Wake fan for so long”

“Well that sucks”

“I am sick!”

Hope you have a great day and we will talk to you again soon.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.