2024 National Championship Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. We have a massive championship game tonight, and since we have nine months of offseason ahead of us starting tomorrow, we figured we wouldn’t hand you too much required reading on your Monday morning. There’s only one more game to be played, so without further ado, let’s talk about the Natty.

But First…FCS!

We did want to give a quick shoutout to South Dakota State, who defeated Montana 23-3 in the FCS Championship Game on Sunday to win their second consecutive FCS National Championship. The Jackrabbits seem to have taken the reigns from rival North Dakota State as the true power in FCS over the past couple of seasons and have already proven that they can do what NDSU was built on: sustaining success in spite of coaching changes. This year’s head coach was Jimmy Rogers, who took over for John Steigelmeier who retired after winning the national championship in 2022. The FCS playoffs are one of the most exciting things we have in college football, and the budding competitive rivalry between SDSU and NDSU will be something we’re interested to see play out in the years to come. Shoutout to the Jackrabbits for going back-to-back.

National Championship Preview

#2 Washington (14-0) v #1 Michigan (14-0): Michigan -4.5, O/U 56.5 - Monday 7:30pm ET ESPN - Houston, TX

It’s David vs Goliath. It’s the Jedi vs the Sith. It’s all that is good and wonderful in this world vs all that is dark and unholy. It’s Washington vs Michigan. 

On top of the vast differences in the morality of both programs, they couldn’t be much different schematically, either. Michigan obviously brings in a run-first, power offensive approach backed by a stifling defense, while Washington brings in their high-flying aerial attack backed by… often no defense at all. The Huskies rank 86th in FBS in rushing yards per carry and are nearly last in the country in tackles for loss. That is, well, concerning as they head into a matchup against Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards, and a very good Michigan offensive line. No matter who you are, the key to trying to beat this Michigan offense is to limit their explosiveness in the run game and force JJ McCarthy to convert third-and-mediums and third-and-longs, and so far, Washington’s defense has not looked like one that can do that consistently. It will be interesting to see how Washington gameplans around this obvious weakness - we expect that we may see lots of man coverage as the Huskies load the box to try to slow Michigan down on the ground and dare McCarthy and his group of relatively average wide receivers to beat them through the air. Michigan has also struggled at right tackle all season, and starting right guard Zak Zinter is out with injury, so loading up the box and throwing some different run blitzes at Michigan could really make up some ground. Still, Michigan is favored by nearly five points here largely because of their run game in this matchup. This will be really interesting to watch from snap #1.

At the same time, Michigan has seen absolutely nothing, and we do mean nothing, that even begins to think about resembling what Washington can do offensively. You don’t need us to tell you at this point, but Michael Penix Jr. is an absolutely absurd quarterback who is playing at an insanely high level right now, and his three primary receivers, including future NFL superstar Rome Odunze, are far better than any group Michigan has faced this season. Sure, Michigan played against Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka in November, but Ohio State’s QB Kyle McCord was so bad in that game that they already exiled him to Syracuse. Washington will not have that problem with Penix. Washington has tried to balance out its approach by getting RB Dillon Johnson more carries over the course of the season, but as we saw against Texas, even when the Huskies’ running game isn’t doing much, the passing game has the ability to completely put the team on their back time and time again. Michigan’s defense is really, really good this year, but it can’t be understated how vastly different and effective Washington’s passing attack is than any of Michigan’s previous opponents. Michigan cannot truly prepare in practice for what Michael Penix can do, and they do not have a player on the roster that it can put on scout team to simulate Rome Odunze (or Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk, for that matter) on the outside. As interested as we are in seeing how Washington defends Michigan, we can’t wait to see if Michigan’s defense is up to the task of slowing down Penix and the Huskies’ offense.

Overall, the 4th & Forever expectation is that we may be able to determine the way this game is going to go pretty early on. If Michigan establishes itself on the ground from the get-go and looks like they’ll be able to just run straight at Washington all game, it might be a wrap for the Huskies. Alternatively, if Washington jumps out to something like a 21-3 lead before Michigan’s defense can adjust, are JJ McCarthy and Michigan capable of dropping back and throwing themselves back into a game? We haven’t seen them in that position yet, and we’re skeptical of that scenario. 

This is going to be a great title game because we could truly see it going in any direction - we could see a close win for either team, but we could also see comfortable wins for both the Huskies and the Wolverines. We could see a low-scoring affair, but we can also envision a scenario where both offenses are scoring with relative ease. We may not know what’s going to happen, but we do know one thing: this is good vs. evil. The lovable vs the unloved. The United States vs Al Qaeda. Alright, maybe that’s too far… but can you tell who we’ll be rooting for?

Rand’s Pick: Michigan 31-27. I’m rooting for Washington but think Michigan is the better team. Michigan cannot afford to go blow for blow with Washington’s offense but if they can keep the ball on the ground and Penix on the sidelines, I think they walk away national champions and Harbaugh is on the next flight to LA as head coach of the Chargers. FWIW, if Harbaugh leaves, OC Sherrone Moore will be the next head coach of Michigan.  

Tate’s Pick: You’re more likely to get nuclear launch codes than this pick given my shot to win the Bowl Pick ‘em.

Hope you enjoy the game, and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.