Rivalry Weekend Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. “Oh look there’s Snoopy and Santa Claus!” “Awwwww, that Golden Retriever is adorbs!” “Honey, will you grab some more wood for the fire and some hot chocolate while you’re up?” “Check Amazon, I heard they have great deals on air fryers.” These are common phrases you might hear this Thanksgiving weekend and we genuinely hope you get to relax and spend time with your family. However, it is rivalry weekend, and instead of filling its proverbial cup up with warmth, laughter, and Chianti, college football takes a more historical & literal approach to the holiday weekend (see: Christopher Columbus) and indulges in deep-seated hatred, beating the shit out of people, and engaging in all-out brawls. So raise a glass with us to the best weekend of the year because we’ve got a Civil War, clean, old fashioned hate, a rivalry that’s ‘Deeper than Hate’, and a rivalry where a trophy was created so fans would stop punching each other. Cheers!

The Game

The Game: #2 Ohio State (11-0) @ #3 Michigan (11-0): Michigan -3.5, O/U 46 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

The biggest game of the college football regular season needs no introduction. You could make an argument this is the biggest regular season game since the 2011 Game of the Century between #2 Alabama and #1 LSU. Whatever your position is on that statement, this is certainly the most important Ohio State-Michigan game (also dubbed Game of the Century) since 2006 when future Heisman winner QB Troy Smith and the #1 Buckeyes took down #2 Michigan in Columbus, the day after legendary Michigan coach Bo Schembechler died. Hollywood couldn’t have written a better script for that rendition until Connor Stalions and Jim Harbaugh came around, neither of whom will be in attendance on Saturday. Even if you remove the biggest scandal the sport has seen in at least a decade, the narratives, noise, and pressure surrounding both programs coming into this game are palpable.

Ohio State has gotten blown off the field in the last two meetings after only losing once to That Team Up North since 2004. Head coach Ryan Day is 54-6 in his head coaching career, yet Ohio State fans are calling for his head since he “can’t beat Michigan.” Two of those six losses have come against the two best Michigan teams in the last 15 years, three of them came in the playoff or national championship, and the last came to Oregon. Fair or not (it’s unfair), Ohio State head coaches are measured based on victories over Michigan - or lack thereof. Day is 1-2 against Michigan, and a third loss would ratchet up the pressure tenfold on him. It actually hurts Day that Harbaugh isn’t coaching here because if Ohio State wins, the cynics will write it off as he can’t beat Harbaugh. 

A Michigan loss would fan the flames even more of this cheating scandal and the influence it had on Michigan’s games which would be particularly troubling for the group of Michigan fans who continue to claim it never happened or it wasn’t a big deal. Additionally, a narrative would percolate that Michigan can only beat Ohio State with Harbaugh which they might have to get used to as the growing expectation is Harbaugh is going to try and walk to the NFL this offseason again and/or be suspended for most if not all of 2024. Phew.

Regardless of all of the noise, this is going to be a tremendous football game between two of the best programs in college football that not only hate each other (especially right now) but are fighting for one spot in the College Football Playoff. Even if the winner here loses to Iowa next weekend in Indy, it’s likely they’ll still make the Playoff based on the magnitude of this win. The two teams come in looking surprisingly similar in a lot of ways. These are two of the best defenses in the country, two of the best offensive rushing attacks in the country, and neither team wants to throw the ball unless it is forced to. 

For Ohio State, the defensive gameplan is pretty clear: limit what Michigan is able to do on first and second down in the run game to force JJ McCarthy into 3rd and longs as often as possible. McCarthy has looked solid throwing the ball effectively against inferior competition this season, but both his play and Michigan’s trust in him seem to take a nosedive when faced with any real adversity this season. Two weeks ago against Penn State, Michigan’s offensive line was getting abused by Chop Robinson and PSU’s pass rush in the first quarter before Michigan completely abandoned even attempting to throw the ball and got out of Happy Valley with a victory won by its offensive line and running backs. McCarthy did not attempt a pass in the 2nd half of that game - that is hardly a shining endorsement of McCarthy nor Michigan’s pass protection and receivers, and it is a gameplan that will not work against Ohio State. Last week against Maryland, McCarthy went 12-21 for 142 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and looked pretty dreadful under duress. Yeesh. If Ohio State can indeed force McCarthy into obvious passing situations, expect edge rushers JT Tuimoloa and Jack Sawyer to tee off on Michigan’s offensive tackles who have struggled in pass protection at times this season.

When it comes to OSU’s offense vs Michigan’s defense, the game plan for Ohio State will be similarly simple: get Michigan the hell out of its base three-or-four-down linemen looks and force them into playing more nickel packages with an extra defensive back on the field. Michigan’s defensive line is one of the better defensive lines we have seen in recent years, and the Wolverines love nothing more than letting those big guys eat upfront. They have been able to do that virtually non-stop this season as they haven’t faced a passing attack worth a damn since they played TCU last year, but in the few times they have been forced to devote an extra man in the defensive backfield this season, Michigan’s great defense has looked a lot more pedestrian. That is not good news for Michigan as it gets ready to face WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka, who require massive amounts of attention from multiple players at all times. That is exactly where OSU has found their rhythm in the run game in recent weeks since RB TreVeyon Henderson (500 yards, 5 TDs in his last 4 games) returned from injury, and we think it may end up being the key to the game. 

Tate’s Pick: Ohio State wins 27-17. They are the more complete team on both sides of the ball and will be able to move the ball more effectively than Michigan will as the game wears on. Expect Michigan fans to react calmly and rationally.

Rand’s Pick: Michigan wins 35-24. “There's an old saying in Tennessee, I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee, that says, fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me, you can't get fooled again.” -George Dubya Bush. Bush messed up that saying but the CFB world has been fooled two years in a row by expecting Michigan to lose to Ohio State. The Wolverines have beaten the Buckeyes to a pulp in both matchups. I can’t shake those games from my head and perhaps against my better judgment, expect the same this year especially with it being in The Big House.

Games with Playoff Implications

Texas Tech (6-5) @ #7 Texas (11-1): UT -12.5, O/U 53.5 - Friday 7:30pm ET ABC

Texas is only one win away from a Big 12 Championship appearance, but bitter rival Texas Tech stands in their way. Texas Tech won this matchup in overtime last year and would certainly love nothing more than to ruin the Longhorns’ playoff hopes in their final year in the Big 12. The Red Raiders have been a bit of a disappointment this season after being a popular dark horse pick to win the league before the season started, but this team is still tricky. They played Oregon tough early this season, and with Texas’ injury situation, the Horns would be dumb to assume victory until the clock hits 0:00. Texas will be without star running back Jonathan Brooks who is out for the season, while QB Quinn Ewers is just getting back to being at 100% according to head coach Steve Sarkisian. It’s been a slog for Texas offensively at times recently, and TTU’s defense has improved over the past few games. This matchup has a tendency to get testy and intense, and this one should be no different. This will be great viewing for your Friday evening.

The Civil War: #16 Oregon State (8-3) @ #6 Oregon (10-1): Oregon -13.5, O/U 62.5 - Friday 8:30pm ET FOX

If Oregon beats its hated rival they clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship game and keep their playoff hopes alive. If this storyline sounds familiar, it’s because this was the exact same situation last year in Corvallis, but the Beavers came back from 21 points down to beat the Ducks, knocking them out of the CFP race and sending them to the Holiday Bowl. Oregon wants revenge for last year's collapse, while Oregon State wants to knock the Ducks out of the playoff picture once again and send them to the Big 10 with a black eye. Akin to the Apple Cup which we touch on below, Ducks QB Bo Nix is still in the Heisman race and a big performance here would likely vault him to the top of the odds board. His PNW adversary Michael Penix just faced this Beavers defense to meager results. Oregon State gets another shot to ruin their rival's season and they’re good enough to do just that…again.

The Governor's Cup: Kentucky (6-5) @ #10 Louisville (10-1): UL -7.0, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

It may be a long shot, but there is still a world here in the year 2023 that the Louisville Cardinals sneak their way into the College Football Playoff. Kentucky has won the past three matchups between the teams, but the Wildcats are reeling at the moment, having lost 5 of their last 6 and coming off of a brutal loss to a bad South Carolina team last Saturday. Still, it’s rivalry weekend, and Kentucky is a tough and well-coached team, and Louisville is not immune to inexplicably losing to a team that it is much better than - remember the Pitt game?

But the Cards are looking good at the moment and they have a lot more to play for in this one. An ACC Championship seems more possible than at any time in school history due to Jordan Travis’ injury ahead of Louisville’s matchup with FSU next week in the title game. This may not be the prettiest game of rivalry week, but we’re expecting a big performance from UL RB Jahwar Jordan and think this Cards defense might completely shut down Big Blue’s dreadful offense. You’re at the finish line Louisville, don’t f*ck it up.

The Iron Bowl: #8 Alabama (10-1) @ Auburn (6-5): Alabama -14.5, O/U 49.0 - Saturday 3:30pm ET CBS

Auburn may have just lost by three touchdowns to New Mexico State (lmao), but it's a Jordan-Hare Iron Bowl year where we all know crazy things can happen. Alabama may not necessarily control its own destiny when it comes to the College Football Playoff even if it were to win the SEC Championship game next week, but it damn sure needs to beat Auburn. The Tigers have been an enigma this season, looking like an upper-half SEC team in games against Arkansas and #1 Georgia, while looking like a bottom-half Mountain West team at other times (like when they lost by 21 to New Mexico State lmfaoooo). 

If we had to bet on it, we’d bet that Auburn comes to play in this one and gives Bama more of a game than the Tide would prefer ahead of their massive showdown against the Dawgs next week in Atlanta. But this Alabama defense is one of the best Nick Saban has ever coached, which is saying something, and we fully expect the Tide to be focused and ready to send Auburn to the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl in short order. Regardless, you don’t need us to get you excited for the Iron Bowl. 

The Apple Cup: Washington State (5-6) @ #4 Washington (11-0): Washington -16.5, O/U 68.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FOX

If you’re sick of us talking about teams trying to get revenge on rivals for moving conferences, trust us, we’re sick of writing about it too. But there is no bigger opportunity for true revenge and bitterness to take place than in Seattle on Saturday, where #4 Washington will try to keep its undefeated season and College Football Playoff hopes alive against hated rival Wazzu. Washington is coming off an emotional and difficult win on the road against Oregon State, and the Huskies continue to look less-than-stellar as the season comes to a close. Washington State is coming off of an absolute shellacking of Deion’s Colorado team. Don’t let Wazzu’s record fool you, this is a very tricky team to play due to QB Cam Ward, who is one of the country’s better and more exciting quarterbacks. The Huskies defense leaves a lot to be desired, and Ward and his Cougars are fighting for both bowl-eligibility and perpetual bragging rights over their bitter rival before UDub leaves for the Big Ten next season. It’ll be a tremendous opportunity for Michael Penix to put himself back near the top of the Heisman race, the country will be watching to see if Washington steps up to the plate, and we’re expecting lots of points to be scored. There are huge playoff implications here and it’ll be one of the more fun games of the weekend.

#5 Florida State (11-0) @ Florida (5-6): FSU -6.5, O/U 50.0 - Saturday 7:00pm ET ESPN

Welcome to the big show Tate Rodemaker. Former clipboard holder and sideline hype man is now the starting QB for the Seminoles after Jordan Travis went down with a season-ending ankle injury last week. All he’s got to do is effectively play the hardest position in all of sports in order to beat his school's biggest rival in their home stadium. That rival school happens to be Florida who needs to win to secure bowl eligibility and we’re merely guessing they’d love to ruin FSU’s perfect season and shot at a playoff too. No pressure, kid.

Clean, Old Fashioned Hate: #1 Georgia (11-0) @ Georgia Tech (6-5): UGA -24.0, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Dawgs by a trillion. More below as always.

Games with Conference Championship Implications

UTSA (8-3) @ #23 Tulane (10-1): Tulane -3.0, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ABC

The winner goes to the AAC championship game. It’s that simple. UTSA is led by QB Frank Harris and head coach Jeff Traylor. Remember the name Jeff Traylor because there’s a decent chance you see him coaching Texas A&M next season. The Roadrunners haven’t lost since September and have scored at least 34 points in every one of their seven straight victories. Tulane matches Frank Harris with future NFL pick QB Michael Pratt and their nine-game winning streak with their only loss of the season coming to Ole Miss. If you haven’t watched an AAC game all year, we don’t blame you because this is the biggest conference game of the year by a wide margin.

Deeper Than Hate: Georgia Southern (6-5) @ App State (7-4): App -9.0, O/U 63.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPNU

Fresh off a thrilling OT victory over the previous undefeated James Madison Dukes, App State returns to The Rock to play their most hated rival, Georgia Southern. A rivalry that dates back to their FCS days where both teams regularly ruined each other's seasons and national championship aspirations. Georgia Southern has a chance to knock App out of the Sun Belt conference championship race. If App wins and Coastal Carolina loses to JMU, App will play Troy in the Sun Belt. If the atmosphere between these two bitter rivals wasn’t going to be electric enough already, App is retiring QB Armanti “Juamnji” Edwards's jersey during the game. Edwards led the Neers to two of their FCS national championships, won the FCS Heisman (Walter Payton Award) twice, and is one of the best dual-threat QBs in college football history. Oh, he was also the QB when App State beat #5 Michigan in 2007. 

James Madison (10-1) @ Coastal Carolina (7-4): JMU -9.0, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET ESPN2

As mentioned above, if Coastal wins on their heinous teal turf they will advance to the Sun Belt championship game against Troy. If James Madison AND App win, App will advance. No team that modeled their field after a Blue Hurricane Four Loko deserves to be in the conference championship game. Roll Dukes & Neers.

3 More Games to Watch this Weekend Because it’s Rivalry Weekend

The Egg Bowl: #12 Ole Miss (9-2) @ Mississippi State (5-6): Ole Miss -10.0, O/U 55.5 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN

“The older you do get the more rules they're going to try to get you to follow. You just gotta keep livin' man, l-i-v-i-n.” -Matthew McConaughey in “Dazed and Confused”. Well, Matthew, we agree and our version of livin is plopping down on the couch after stuffing our gullets with every side dish imaginable and watching the Egg Bowl. No rules will take that away from us. If you’d rather tune into the 49ers-Seahawks game or talk to your great step-aunt (once removed) about how your job is going instead of watching the Egg Bowl, please indulge us for a brief moment. Unlike most intrastate rivalries between traditionally inferior land-grant U (Mississippi State in this case) and bigger, better, richer State U (Ole Miss), the series is pretty close overall with Ole Miss only holding an all-time winning advantage of 64-46-6.  See Bedlam, TAMU-Texas, and Michigan State-Michigan for more lopsided examples. In 2019, there was the famous fake-pee incident where Ole Miss WR Elijah Moore caught what would’ve likely been a game-tying touchdown catch until he pretended to pee like a dog in the MSU endzone which cost Ole Miss 15 yards on the extra point, which was subsequently missed and MSU won to become bowl eligible. They fired coach Joe Moorhead anyway while Ole Miss head coach Matt Luke. Five head coaches were hired/fired in 2019 because of this peeing incident and while we can’t recap it all here, remind us in the offseason to do so or click here. 

There’s also the brawl of 2018 which saw all 130 players on both teams penalized, the 1916 brawl where MSU fans stopped Ole Miss fans from tearing down their goalposts by beating them with wooden chairs, and hell even the Golden Egg Trophy itself was invented in 1927 in response to the brawl of 1926 so that both teams and fanbases had something to focus on after the game other than beating the shit out of each other.

If you like college football because of the intense, hateful, bitter rivalries, there is truly no better game than the Egg Bowl. It’s more hateful than Ohio State/Michigan, it’s more bitter than the Iron Bowl, and it’s dumber than just about every other rivalry combined. This is one of the best games to watch every season regardless of where these two teams are, and we can’t think of a better dessert after your Thanksgiving meal than a bunch of Mississippians trying to kill each other on Thursday night. The Egg Bowl is must-watch television.

North Carolina (8-3) @ #22 NC State (8-3): UNC -2.5, O/U 55.0 - Saturday 8:00pm ET ACCN

We have a lot of readers who are from and/or have a deep understanding of Tobacco Road. For those of you whose elementary school teachers didn’t stop class and wheel in a TV to watch the ACC Tournament every March let us introduce you to a very important and vicious rivalry, gridiron edition. UNC is NC State’s biggest rival. UNC pretends like NC State doesn’t exist. NC State fans dip and drink Monster. UNC fans smoke cigars and discuss the denouement of Jane Eyre. Ok, those last two statements might be misguided and stereotypical, but it's what each fanbase will have you believe about the other. Point is, both of these two schools hate each other no matter the sport. UNC is coming off a loss and their worst offensive performance against Clemson which is excusable, but State beat Clemson and has a similarly fierce defense. State just went into Lane Stadium and beat the Hokies which is no easy task, especially after switching quarterbacks (again) just two weeks ago. As we’ve mentioned multiple times before, Carter-Finley Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the ACC and it will be beyond rocking for this rivalry game. Tune in if you don’t believe us, or to watch a great rivalry game. 

The Palmetto Bowl: #24 Clemson (7-4) @ South Carolina (5-6): Clem -7.0, O/U 52.0 - Saturday 7:30pm ET SECN

It may be a remarkably disappointing year for both of these teams, but don’t even think for a second that either of these squads won’t be fired up for this one. Clemson owned this rivalry for quite a while, winning seven in a row before South Carolina’s thrilling 31-30 victory on the road last season, and while the stakes might not seem very high to you and me, they damn sure will be to these teams on Saturday. USC QB Spencer Rattler is still running for his life behind a putrid offensive line, but he still has Xavier Legette and Juice Wells to throw the ball to, and South Carolina’s defense has gotten stronger as the season has worn on. For Clemson, after a mortifying first two months of the season that saw a blowout loss to Duke, a terrible loss to NC State, and its head coach screaming at a fan on the radio, the Tigers seem to have turned things around in a big way. Clemson has cruised to victories over Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina over the past three weeks and is playing its best football here in November. Even if the peaks of these two teams aren’t as high as we thought they would be, the fact is that both of these teams are playing at their peaks right now, and the game is at night in Williams-Brice. It’ll certainly be a fun one.

Wake Forest & Georgia

Georgia (11-0): I’ll be honest friends, with possibly three more consecutive matchups against top-10 teams coming up for the Dawgs, writing about this Tech game doesn’t excite me too much. While I do think Tech coach Brent Key has this program moving in the right direction after years of purgatory, I don’t see any world where this game is even remotely close. The Dawgs will have to protect against the QB run game as Haynes King can move around very well, and that’ll be a good test ahead of our matchup against Jalen Milroe next weekend. It’ll be great to see former Dawg Dom Blaylock who has battled back from multiple ACL tears to become a very good player, even if he is doing it for Tech. And while the Dawgs will likely be without Ladd McConkey and Rara Thomas in this one while Brock Bowers will likely be limited on a snap count, it won’t matter to Carson Beck who will just throw it to Dominic Lovett, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Dillon Bell and others and score just about every time he has the ball. It’s a tune-up-and-get-healthy game for the Dawgs ahead of the Alabama game next weekend, and while beating the hell out of Tech is always fun, it probably won’t be one of our more interesting games this season.

But while we’re here, I’ll give you a quick little UGA/GT story. This game has been played at noon every year for the past ten years - the last non-noon game was in 2013, a game that I attended at Georgia Tech. That 2013 UGA team was the most injury-riddled Dawgs team I’ve ever seen, and by the time the Tech game rolled around, we were on our backup QB who was throwing the ball to walk-on receivers a lot of the time. The Dawgs went down 20-0 in the 2nd quarter before scoring 17 in a row to get back into it. It was a game of runs that went into overtime, saw Todd Gurley absolutely dominate down the stretch, and the Dawgs won in double OT. Tremendous!

But what happened right after the game is what I’ll always remember. If you have memories of the Saturday after Thanksgiving in 2013, they probably revolve around where you were when the Kick Six happened. Where I was, was walking out of Bobby Dodd Stadium immediately after the Dawgs had just held on to beat Tech in double-OT, and I had the Iron Bowl pulled up on my phone. Try to imagine walking out of a stadium surrounded by dozens of people who have no idea what the score even is in the Iron Bowl, and being the only one in your vicinity that just witnessed the Kick Six happen live. I couldn’t believe what I’d just seen. I tried to explain it to my dad who was walking with me, I tried to explain it to random old men who were close to me as we walked out. I couldn’t get the words out to properly explain the play because I was so shocked, and everybody I attempted to explain it to was just looking at me like “Is this kid having an aneurysm?” Reading this may not be as crazy or funny as it was to me at the time, but it’s one of my most memorable experiences at Bobby Dodd Stadium considering Tech hasn’t beaten us there since 1999.

We’ll get back to big game breakdowns moving forward as the Dawgs get ready to take on legitimate football programs rather than just the #6 engineering school in the country. Tech lies, cheats, and sucks at football. Go Dawgs.

Wake Forest (4-7): The Deacs head to Syracuse, NY to face, you guessed it, Syracuse. They kick off at 2:00pm ET on the CW and the Orange (5-6) are 3-point favorites with the O/U set at 44.5.

As mentioned on Monday, Syracuse pulled the plug on the Dino Babers experiment if you can even call it that since it lasted eight years but can still attain bowl eligibility with a win. Babers's predecessor at Bowling Green (before he was hired at Syracuse) was no other than Dave Clawson who said on Tuesday, “On offense, I really don’t know what’s going on with them at quarterback.” I didn’t really know what Clawson meant by that because as much as I love college football, I did not subject myself to the Syracuse-Georgia Tech game last weekend. After checking the recap and box score I understand what Clawson means because what in all things holy is going on here? I now regret not tuning in because starting QB Garrett Shrader didn’t enter the game until the third quarter where he handed the ball off and never attempted a pass because of an injury while backup QB Carlos Del Rio Wilson was out from an injury sustained a few weeks ago. Therefore, Cuse turned to tight end Dan Villari to essentially run the wildcat all game. Villari somehow went 14/14 for 59 yards but with that stat line, I’m guessing not a single pass went beyond the line of scrimmage. It also looks like two other quarterbacks attempted a singular pass each in this game for a total of negative six yards. Yeah, Clawson, I have no idea what they’re doing either but I can’t wait to watch this monstrosity for myself. The Deacs will counter with QB Michael Kern again and hopefully have their rush D show up for this one as a win would give them a very outside chance of sneaking into a bowl game. As always, Deacs by a million here.

Tate’s Great Picks (24-40-1)

#17 Iowa (9-2) @ Nebraska (5-6): Neb -2.5, O/U 26.5 - Friday 12:00pm ET CBS

Pick - Game Total Under 26.5: C’mon folks, you know what the deal is. We’re betting Iowa unders until one doesn’t hit, and Vegas is certainly trying its hardest to make that happen as this is now the lowest FBS O/U in recorded history. It matters not. Hammer the under.

#2 Ohio State (11-0) @ #3 Michigan (11-0): Michigan -3.5, O/U 46 - Saturday 12:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Ohio State ML: We discussed this game in-depth above so I will keep this short, but I love Ohio State in this spot. I think the Buckeyes are better on both sides of the ball right now, they’ll be better coached considering Harbaugh’s absence, and about 75% of the scenarios for Michigan to win require JJ McCarthy to drop back, be protected, and consistently throw it to receivers who need to get open. I don’t see it. Bucks win and head to Indianapolis to beat Iowa like a drum.

#12 Ole Miss (9-2) @ Mississippi State (5-6): Ole Miss -10.0, O/U 55.5 - Thursday 7:30pm ET ESPN

Pick - Ole Miss -10: It may be a rivalry game and MSU may be fighting for bowl eligibility, but I think Ole Miss may blow the doors off this team. The Rebs are playing for a big-time bowl game and their second 10-win regular season in school history, while MSU’s coach has been fired and the Bulldogs may be hoping this season just ends. Give me the Rebs

#1 Georgia (11-0) @ Georgia Tech (6-5): UGA -24.0, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Pick - Georgia -24: It’s simple: The Dawgs are absolutely punking teams right now, it’s a rivalry game, and Georgia Tech’s defense is Swiss cheese. I don’t see the Dawgs punting in this one unless we beat ourselves with a penalty once or twice. Dawgs 52 Georgia Tech 10.

The Apple Cup: Washington State (5-6) @ #4 Washington (11-0): Washington -16.5, O/U 68.5 - Saturday 4:00pm ET FOX

Pick - Washington State +16.5: I’m expecting Wazzu to come out with a ton of effort and intensity, and I think Cam Ward will have a good amount of success against a below-average Washington secondary. Wazzu may not win, but they keep it close in the final Apple Cup game. Washington wins 34-30.

The Governor's Cup: Kentucky (6-5) @ #10 Louisville (10-1): UL -7.0, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ABC

Pick - Game Total Under 50.5: I’m expecting a slog here. Kentucky’s offense has looked absolutely dreadful for weeks now while Louisville’s defense looks more legit by the game. Louisville can score but isn’t exactly a high-flying scoring machine. The Cards win with ease here, but I’m expecting something more like 24-13.

#24 Clemson (7-4) @ South Carolina (5-6): Clem -7.0, O/U 52.0 - Saturday 7:30pm ET SECN

Pick - Game Total Over 52: Clemson’s defense may be very good and SoCar’s offensive line is competing with Colorado’s for being the worst unit in the Power 5, but I’m expecting Rattler to hit a few big plays to Xavier Legette, maybe some turnover craziness, and just an overall an intense, back-and-forth game. Over hits here with ease.

OnlyRans (57-60-1)

#17 Iowa (9-2) @ Nebraska (5-6): Neb -2.5, O/U 26.5 - Friday 12:00pm ET CBS

Pick - Game Total Under 26.5: We wrote a few weeks ago that 28.5 was the lowest O/U Vegas had ever put out which of course, was in an Iowa game and the under hit. Records are meant to be broken and until Vegas has the cajones to set an Iowa O/U as a negative number I will be taking the under. That’s a lie, I’d still take it. 

Pittsburgh (3-8) @ Duke (6-5): Duke -6.0, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ACCN

Pick - Duke -6: I’ll keep this short and sweet. Duke defense = very good. Pitt offense = unfathomably bad. Advantage Duke at home. 

Memphis (8-3) @ Temple (3-8): Mem -11.0, O/U 65.5 - Saturday 12:00pm ET ESPN

Pick - Memphis -11: Speaking of unfathomably bad, Memphis’ D would like to say hey. They are horrendous but not as bad as Temple. The Tigers' offense can score points and lots of them.

Northwestern (6-5) @ Illinois (5-6): Illinois -5.5, O/U 46.5 - Saturday 3:30pm ET BTN

Pick - Northwestern +5.5: Illinois is fighting for bowl eligibility at home and announced backup QB John Paddock who threw for 500 yards against Indiana a few weeks ago will rightfully get the start. However, Northwestern’s defense is a wall. They’ve given up more than 20 points only once in the past six games and they won that game anyway. 5.5 points is too much here. 

Ohio (8-3) @ Akron (2-9): Ohio -14.0, O/U 41.5 - Friday 12:00pm ET CBSSN

Pick - Ohio -14: Have I watched a single Akron game in my life? Absolutely not, but I know they are one of the worst teams in the FBS and Ohio has one of the MACs best QBs in Kurtis Rourke. 

#9 Missouri (9-2) @ Arkansas (4-7): Mizzou -7.0, O/U 54.5 - Friday 4:00pm ET CBS

Pick - Mizzou -7: One team just had their AD make public statements that its coach would not be fired amid a disappointing season while the other is in the midst of a dream season and fighting for a New Year’s Six bowl slot. I’ll take the latter.

#1 Georgia (11-0) @ Georgia Tech (6-5): UGA -24.0, O/U 60.5 - Saturday 7:30pm ET ABC

Pick - Georgia -24: More than half of the stadium is going to be red & black which isn’t good news for the Jackets. This one is easy, Go Dawgs. 

For my underdog moneyline upsets of the week give me Arkansas State ML, Virginia ML, Rutgers ML, and Minnesota ML. Arkansas State just hung 77 points on Texas State and has won three of their last four games. The Red Wolves head to Huntington, WV to play a Marshall team that's lost six of its past seven. Virginia, Rutgers, and Minnesota are all home dogs to similar or inferior teams so I’m throwing some darts that there will be some rivalry upsets here.

Where in the World Are We?

RF: If you thought I’d be in upstate New York watching the Deacs, I don’t blame you, but I have (some) morals. No way will I ever willingly book a flight to Rochester or wherever you fly into to watch a game in the frozen hell hole of Syracuse, NY. After being on the run like a prison escapee since Labor Day Weekend in the name of college football, I will finally be sedentary for a change. 14 games in 12 weeks is asinine but I loved every second of it. I’ll be in Atlanta sprawled out on my couch consuming college football through a fire hose. There is potential I decide to hit one more college football game this season in the form of Georgia-Georgia Tech, but shelling out $100+ on a game that’ll be over by the first quarter when there’s other CFB on is idiotic. Butttttt…I am an idiot and if anyone has a ticket give me a call because I’d be there in a heartbeat. I’ll send a pic, bring beer, dance, bark like a dawg, whatever you want. Let’s watch some football. 

TS: On Thursday I’m going to eat a bunch of turkey and watch an unhealthy amount of football. On Friday I’m gonna eat more turkey and watch an even unhealthier amount of football. And on Saturday, I’m gonna make Rand come to the UGA/GT game with me. Go Dawgs.

Hope you have a great Thanksgiving with your family, and we will talk to you again on Monday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.