Let's Feast: Rivalry Week Preview

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Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Just as we hope your plates are this weekend, we’ve got a stacked newsletter this weekend. Let’s not waste time and get right into the best college football weekend of the year. 

Quick Primer

As we mentioned last week, these past few days have been bonkers travel-wise for us personally so we were not about to get you all a dedicated Week 13 Recap which is unfortunate because it was perhaps the best weekend of CFB we’ve seen this year. However, if you were paying attention like we told you to then perhaps the recap would’ve been redundant. We called the Week 13 Preview edition “Mind Your Wandering Eye” because we saw the potential for Bama, Ole Miss, and TAMU to all throw up on themselves, which of course they all did. “Our prediction is that multiple teams are going to get got this weekend…just don’t say we didn’t warn you.” Well, we were right and now we live in a world where Georgia and Tennessee moved up 3 spots and into the playoff picture after being UMass and UTEP respectively.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, last week should serve as a warning - again, one we’ve mentioned before - that the playoff rankings do not matter one iota until the final ones are released after the conference championship games. It’s a TV show put on ESPN to drive ratings for basketball games that precede and follow it and like First Take, it’s intentionally designed to spur debate. We can’t be bothered with it so we won’t bore you. If you want to debate, head to Musk’s Social Media Cesspool and buy some crypto while you’re at it if you feel so inclined. No judgment on our end. 

If you completely missed last weekend’s fireworks, we implore you to look up the ending to the Arizona State-BYU game. The field was stormed twice, ASU students ended up watching the final play from the BYU bench, BYU almost completed a last-second Hail Mary, and it’s all because Arizona State put on a masterclass on how not to run out the clock. A few hours later, Oklahoma fans got too antsy and stormed the field too early then re-stormed it after their upset victory over Bama was complete. Florida made Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart’s life a living hell in their upset bid over the Rebs. Colorado got trounced by Big 12 slayer Kansas who is 5-6 but has now beaten three straight ranked teams. Indiana unsurprisingly lost to Ohio State while Penn State barely survived an upset bid to Minnesota on a gutsy fake punt. 

There was so much more that we’d love to get to but the slate this weekend is impossible to ignore for much longer. Just know that before the rivalry weekend slate kicks off, only one conference has settled their conference championship matchup and that’d be the American. In the Big 12, nine (!!) teams are still alive for the conference title race and there are over 250 different scenarios that can play out. There are meaningful games up and down the schedule this weekend and for that, we are thankful. Let’s dive in but just one more thing…

Mack Brown = Joe Biden

If the writers of the Aflac Trivia Question are reading, here’s some free content: Which two public figures said they were leaving their job in 2024, reneged on that statement, held onto power for far too long, engaged in an awkward publicity feud, and then were kicked out against their will but were afforded the opportunity to make it graceful out of geriatric respect? Well, you already know the answer based on the title but now we’re forced to wonder if this analogy holds does that make Bubba Cunnigham (UNC’s athletic director) as savvy as Nancy Pelosi? 

To catch everyone up, after UNC’s 70-50 loss to JMU in September, Mack Brown made some statements that sure made it sound like he was quitting (timing was unknown) so he had to make a statement that he wasn’t quitting, then on Friday he made another statement that he was staying at UNC next year. UNC lost to Boston College by 20 points on Saturday and on Monday he was canned. It’s important to note that Brown is beloved at UNC and most importantly by his players, but UNC has always aspired for more than Sun Bowl appearances. It’s equally as important and in hindsight, telling, that Brown was the one controlling the narrative. Cunningham (to our knowledge) never issued public statements that he was in agreement with Brown’s statements and if he was, then he is a savvy ass politician. 

Where Carolina goes from here will be fascinating. They’re commonly referred to as a ‘sleeping giant’ and while the validity of that would require a whole newsletter to flesh out, this job will be highly sought after and unless we get some surprise retirements or firings, they might be the biggest player in the market by a wide margin. The (potential) hires that should scare the hell out of the ACC would be Georgia’s DC Glenn Schumann and Tulane’s Jon Sumrall. The issue there is they both might be in the playoff, so UNC would have to be willing to go through the upcoming transfer portal window and early signing day without a head coach. How poetic (or insulting) would it be if UNC hired the Tulane head coach 40 years after hiring Mack Brown from…Tulane. 

Additionally, it’s unknown if either of them would want the UNC job because they will likely be high on potential SEC head coaching lists next year. Other names of note being floated around are Liberty’s Jamey Chadwell, former Florida head coach Dan Mullen, and Army’s head coach Jeff Monken. Those three will be cheaper, available earlier, and most importantly interested. One interesting name to keep an eye on is Pittsburgh Steelers OC Arthur Smith who had a hilariously horrible tenure as the Falcons head coach. Smith played OL at UNC and his dad founded FedEx. As we saw with Michigan in their flip of high school QB Bryce Underwood thanks to the founder of Oracle, would UNC be able to tap into the financial coffers of a billionaire? We’ll follow this job search and keep you posted but a completely subjective note from Rand: Mack was never Back and now UNC has the opportunity to make a smart, sensible hire which is a scary proposition. However, what must be done eventually, should be done immediately. Too little too late? Just ask Pelosi.

All Rivalry Games are Awesome but Here are the Best of the Weekend

The Lone Star Showdown - #3 Texas (10-1) @ #20 Texas A&M (8-3): TEX -6, O/U 48.5 - Friday 7:30 pm ET ABC

We’ve talked about it a thousand times on this here newsletter, but there is not a single game that we have looked forward to more than the Lone Star Showdown. As Tate predicted before the season, this game is not only the return of one of college football’s best rivalries after a 13-year hiatus, but it’s also going to determine who goes to the SEC Championship and/or Playoff and that means people may die at this game. There’s not a rivalry in college football that quite matches the true hatred these two programs have for each other - it simply cannot be understated how big of a deal game is.

If you’re thinking that #3 Texas should roll an 8-3 and pretty average TAMU team, we don’t blame you but would invite you to watch the Texas games since the UGA loss. The UT offense is currently incredibly stagnant, largely due to the ineffectiveness of a banged up Quinn Ewers at QB. A&M has a very talented front seven, and if UT fails to establish the run early things could get pretty spooky for the Longhorn offense pretty quickly. We expect at least a dose of Arch Manning in this one. For A&M, it’ll be in the hands of Marcel Reed once again and while he started playing well down the stretch last week against Auburn, he had an absolutely brutal start that made it look like the Aggies were making the wrong call not starting Conner Weigman. As much as we think the A&M defense could have the UT offense in hell, the same could be said in reverse if Reed comes out and looks like he can’t throw the ball. It’s going to be intense, it’s going to be electric, and it’s going to shape the rest of the college football season. You’ll be tuned in, so we’ll leave it at that.

Palmetto Bowl - #15 South Carolina (8-3) @ #12 Clemson (9-2): CLEM -2.5, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ESPN

We don’t know how we’ve gotten to this point and we’re certainly not going to focus on “the committee” as we get ready for this one, but somehow there are playoff implications on both sides for the first time in this rivalry’s history. Thank goodness it starts at noon!

Clemson looked awful against UGA, went on to smoke everybody else for a couple of months, then looked horrid again against Louisville. Who is this team, you ask? We really have no idea. They’ve looked inept against the two decent opponents they’ve played while basically obliterating everyone else. South Carolina comes into this game with a firm identity - they’re going to establish the run and take shots on offense while their defense absolutely tees off on the quarterback. Can Cade Klubnik hang in there against consistent pressure and deliver the ball effectively? We doubt it, but crazier things have happened in this rivalry. It’s going to be nasty, each team has a ton to play for, and neither of them are that good. That’s the perfect recipe for some Rivalry Week madness.

More Rivalry Games

Paul Bunyan's Axe - Minnesota (6-5) @ Wisconsin (5-6): WIS -2, O/U 43.5 - Friday 12:00 pm ET CBS

One Reason to Watch: There are better games in this timeslot to watch on early Friday afternoon but this is a classic Big 10 matchup. Actually pushes glasses upwards it’s the most played rivalry in D1. Minnesota scared the hell out of Penn State last weekend and has an electric running back in Darius Taylor while Wisconsin is trying to get to bowl eligibility in Luke Fickell’s second year. 

The Egg Bowl - Mississippi State (2-9) @ #14 Ole Miss (8-3): MISS -26, O/U 61.5 - Friday 3:30 pm ET ABC

One Reason to Watch: We resent the fact this is not on Thanksgiving Day so thank you TV executives for ruining our Thanksgiving evening and subjecting us to Tommy DeVito vs Cooper Rush instead. It’s a widely accepted belief that this is likely the most intense, passionate rivalry in the country. There isn’t enough time in the world to dive into the vitriol this rivalry elicits but we’ll remind you that 5 years ago, an Ole Miss WR scored a touchdown in this game, pretended to pee like a dog, drew a penalty that ultimately lost them the game and both coaching staffs got fired. The Egg Bowl is appointment television in perpetuity. 

Border War - Washington (6-5) @ #1 Oregon (11-0): ORE -19.5, O/U 50.5 - Friday 7:00 pm ET NBC

One Reason to Watch: We also resent the fact that this rivalry is called the Border War as the only one we’ll officially recognize is Missouri-Kansas. Anyways, Oregon had flown under the radar since their defeat of Ohio State last month and now has one more test before their inaugural trip to Indianapolis. Let’s hope Oregon gets out of this matchup unscathed on the injury front. 

Farmageddon - #24 Kansas State (8-3) @ #18 Iowa State (9-2): ISU -3, O/U 51.5 - Friday 7:30 pm ET FOX

One Reason to Watch: Rand might’ve been living under a rock but he was blissfully unaware that this rivalry had such an electric and fitting name until this year. Kansas State and Iowa State were left for dead in the Big 12 conference title race but given the chaos above them, it’s not out of the realm of possibility one of these teams could sneak into the conference championship and therefore the playoff. 

The Game - Michigan (6-5) @ #2 Ohio State (10-1): OSU -21, O/U 42.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET FOX

One Reason to Watch: This is the least hyped and meaningful Ohio State-Michigan gave we’ve had in a while which is no fun. Even if Ohio State were to lose they’d still make the playoff but we’ll be watching for the opposite reason: how much is Ohio State going to win by? Ryan Day has been eviscerated by his fanbase for not being able to beat Michigan and now he gets an injured and offensively inept Michigan team limping into Ohio Stadium. If he gets the chance, Day might make Lane Kiffin’s tendency to run up the score look like a children’s birthday party.

Governor’s Cup - Louisville (7-4) @ Kentucky (4-7): LOU -4, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET SECN

One Reason to Watch: Kentucky has had Louisville’s number in this matchup winning the last five. Kentucky will start a freshman QB named Cutter Boley in an effort to spark their offense or…just cause? Louisville once had a promising season including a huge win over Clemson but Kentucky can put a dagger through the Cards here once again.

#8 Tennessee (9-2) @ Vanderbilt (6-5): TENN -10.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ABC

One Reason to Watch: How many times are we going to let people proclaim that “this the biggest Vanderbilt game in school history” this year? Well, given it’s Vanderbilt will let it pass but we’ll argue the Texas game was bigger. However, this is certainly the biggest UT-Vandy game in history. Tickets for this game aren’t going for less than $300 which is mind-boggling. Tennessee might have bigger rivalries against Florida, Alabama, and any other SEC teams with a historic pulse but they’re not subduing their pettiness for this game. Tennessee is making public statements about what colored shirt you should wear based on your section so they can checkerboard Vanderbilt’s stadium orange and white. That’s called swinging your d…flexing your muscles. 

Territorial Cup - #16 Arizona State (9-2) @ Arizona (4-7): ASU -8.5, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET FOX

One Reason to Watch: Arizona State has had a late-season resurgence and is now in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 championship game. However, they now head to Tucson and face hated rival Arizona who would love to ruin their dream season. Per usual, Arizona lives and dies (read: can’t do anything else) by the connection between QB Noah Fifita and WR Tet McMillan. If they’re cooking, this game can get spicy. 

Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh - #5 Notre Dame (10-1) @ USC (6-5): ND -7.5, O/U 51.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET CBS

One Reason to Watch: Does Vegas know something we don’t? The answer is yes but this is a surprisingly close spread for a Notre Dame team that has been a battering ram since their loss to NIU. Maybe USC has a newfound offensive proficiency after making the switch at QB to Jayden Maiava. They snuck by UCLA last weekend but haven’t lost since benching Miller Moss. We’re intrigued here, and like every playoff-contending team not named Oregon or Ohio State, Notre Dame cannot afford a loss under any circumstances.

Iron Bowl - Auburn (5-6) @ #13 Alabama (8-3): BAMA -11.5, O/U 52.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ABC

One Reason to Watch: Kalen DeBoer might need to go into witness protection if he loses this game and Bama slips to 8-4 on the year. Bama is on the outside looking in for the playoff right now so it’s a must-win game, and even then it might not be enough. Do not lose this game Kalen, or do and watch half your state devolve into anarchy. 

Meeting of the Mediocre - NC State (5-6) @ North Carolina (6-5): UNC -3.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ACCN

One Reason to Watch: Alright maybe we made up this rivalry name but the shoe fits. Mack Brown will be coaching in this game so are we going to see one final rah rah Carolina for Brown if they beat State and end their chances to make the QuickLane Bowl? That’d be the storybook ending everyone in Chapel Hill would want at this juncture but things are never that easy in this rivalry. Now that we think of it, you know who else got thrown a party in their last home game who UNC regularly chastises for such a narcissistic public display of affection? Coach K. Apples and oranges given the circumstances but they’re both fruit after all. 

Sunshine Showdown - Florida (6-5) @ Florida State (2-9): FLA -14.5, O/U 45.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET ESPN2

One Reason to Watch: Florida State is about to end their worst season since the pre Bobby Bowden days regardless of the result here. If that’s not enough pain for the Noles, Miami might make the playoff and Florida looks like they’re on their way back to the top of the sport with their QB of the future. Florida has flipped multiple FSU commits and is gunning for more. A beatdown of FSU on their home field might have repercussions in the Florida high school circles for years to come. 

Old Oaken Bucket - Purdue (1-10) @ #10 Indiana (10-1): IU -29.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 7:00 pm ET FS1

One Reason to Watch: Without doing any research we’re confident in saying this is the largest spread ever seen for this rivalry. Indiana has to win here if they want to make the playoff, it’s that simple. Purdue might get up for this one and pull a stunner and/or their coach might be fired on the field. Both outcomes would be welcome results for the Boiler faithful. Don’t lose Indiana, just don’t lose. 

Commonwealth Cup - Virginia (5-6) @ Virginia Tech (5-6): VT -7.5, O/U 48.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET ACCN

One Reason to Watch: Yet another Commonwealth Cup where one or both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility and that’s not acceptable for Virginia Tech. Hokies coach Brent Pry is 1-12 in one-score games which is Nebraska-level shitty and boosters will only put up with the injury excuse for so long. Virginia started off hot and looked to be turning a corner but has fallen off in recent weeks. The loser of this game is in for a long, long offseason. 

Not a Rivalry but Playoff Implications

Memphis (9-2) @ #17 Tulane (9-2): TULN -14.5, O/U 56.5 - Thursday 7:30 pm ET ESPN

One Reason to Watch: As mentioned, the NFL slate is disgusting on Thursday and thanks to the Egg Bowl getting moved to Friday we’re stuck with an AAC game being our only saving grace. However, this is probably the first time you’ve seen Tulane since their early season losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State. They’re a real playoff contender and have murdered every opponent since. Memphis is no slouch and can make this a game. A certain fanbase on the eastern seaboard might want to tune in here to catch Jon Sumrall’s bruising defense and star freshman QB Darian Mensah. He already looks good in light blue.

Oklahoma State (3-8) @ #25 Colorado (8-3): COLO -16.5, O/U 65.5 - Friday 12:00 pm ET ABC

One Reason to Watch: Instead of being thankful, maybe we’re resentful at the CFB overlords for ruining another rivalry. We’d normally be seeing Oklahoma State face Oklahoma in Bedlam this weekend but alas, pettiness and money is a strong motive. Colorado is technically still alive in the Big 12 race but a billon things would have to happen for them to make it. If Deion can get them focused after the Kansas loss last week, this could be a beatdown of epic proportions. 

Oregon State (5-6) @ #11 Boise State (10-1): BOIS -20.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET FOX

One Reason to Watch: Boise has been doing the Miami play-with-fire thing the past few weeks and Oregon State has the talent to beat them. Ashton Jeanty will get his but Boise State needs to show some semblance of a passing game. Not the words we want to be typing about a team with a potential Heisman trophy winner but we guess Oklahoma State, Georgia, and Ohio State weren’t too worried about their QB when they had Sanders, Walker, and Griffin. The Broncos might end up with a top 4 seed, but their work is far from over here. 

UTSA (6-5) @ Army (9-1): ARMY -7, O/U 54.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET CBSSN

One Reason to Watch: Army got shellacked by Notre Dame last weekend which sucks, but they’re still alive for the playoff race if they can beat Tulane in the conference championship and hope Boise loses. First, they’ll need to beat a sneaky good UTSA team which is coming into the game with momentum. 

Cal (6-5) @ #9 SMU (10-1): BOIS -20.5, O/U 56.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET FOX

One Reason to Watch: Thanks to the #Calgorithm we know that Cal and SMU fans are bonded over a shared disdain for the death penalty. SMU is definitely in the ACC Championship but stop us if you’ve heard this before: they can’t afford a late-season loss. The ACC is in a decent position to get two teams in the dance but a loss here would be a death blow. Pun intended. 

#6 Miami (10-1) @ Syracuse (8-3): MIA -11, O/U 67.5 - Saturday 3:30 pm ET ESPN

One Reason to Watch: Miami fans can book their flights to Charlotte with a win here but in the case they flop and cough up a season-ending loss, we’ll see Clemson in Charlotte to take on the ponies. Syracuse has the firepower to keep up with Cam Ward and company and the Carrier Dome has proven to be a nightmare for top teams in the past. It’d be so Miami to get this close to having it all and throwing up on themselves at the finish line.

Houston (4-7) @ #19 BYU (9-2): BYU -13.5, O/U 41.5 - Saturday 10:15 pm ET ESPN 

One Reason to Watch: For your Thanksgiving nightcap, treat yourself to the BYU Cougars at home in a matchup with a rebuilding Houston team that just fired their OC. Would you rather do dishes? Didn’t think so. 

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Tate’s Great Picks (51-56)

I’m up against the clock with some Thanksgiving travel plans so I’ll have to just list out my picks here below. But the one thing I need you all to know is that Cade Klubnik is going to have a horrible Saturday afternoon and South Carolina is going to win a huge game. Book it. It’s also the year of massive spreads in huge rivalry games which is something I am always going to fade during the last week of the season, so if I have gambling advice, it’s to bet on some chaos.

South Carolina +2.5 against Clemson

Texas Tech -3.5 against West Virginia

Louisiana -10.5 against UL Monroe

Louisville -3.5 against Kentucky

Michigan +21 against Ohio State

Syracuse +10.5 against Miami

Auburn +11.5 against Alabama

Arkansas +3.5 against Missouri

Texas A&M +5.5 against Texas

OnlyRans (56-67)

Rapid Fire Randy went 8-4 last week and is now only 2 percentage points behind Tate’s “Great” Picks. Am I due for a regression? Who cares, it’s rivalry week and it’s time to get bold. 

Virginia +7.5 against Virginia Tech might be auto-lock territory given the Hokies' ineptitude and injuries to their QB and RB. I’m big on taking teams who are making a QB switch or just fired an OC because the opposing team has such limited ability to gameplan for the move. Therefore, give me Kentucky +4 at home against Louisville. Yes, Wisconsin just fired their OC but I like Minnesota +2 in Madison even with the Badgers fighting for bowl eligibility. I’ll take a swing at another underdog with South Carolina +2.5 in Death Valley. South Carolina has the defense and big play ability to stay in this game or wipe Clemson off the face of the earth. Tate has me hooked on taking Vandy plus the points which has proven fruitful for him so don’t let me down here kid. Vandy +10.5 against Tennessee.

Pittsburgh might do the unthinkable - or thinkable if you know anything about this program - and go from starting the season 7-0 and ending up 7-5. I think they do it so give me Boston College -5 and their new QB at home. Penn State -25 is a wagon at home and they’re facing 4-7 Maryland team who is playing for nothing but a paycheck from the Big 10. Vegas is begging me to take Notre Dame -7.5 because they think USC will make this a game and dammit I’m going to do it. As mentioned, Florida has an incentive to stick it to Florida State while Florida State’s coaching staff is already scouting the portal. Give me the Gators -14.5 in Tallanasty. Arizona has looked stagnant against teams they play with a pulse and I’m all in on the Sun Devils -8.5 short and long term future. 

For my 11th and final pick which will undoubtedly get me to .500 on the year, I will take Georgia Tech +19.5 against you know who. 

Upset Calls of the Week

Rand: Vanderbilt +10.5 over Tennessee 

Tate: Vanderbilt +10.5 over Tennessee

Wake Forest & Georgia

Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate - #7 Georgia (9-2) @ Georgia Tech (7-4): UGA -19.5, O/U 53.5 - Friday 7:30 pm ET ABC

As I mentioned above, I did not have much time to write this edition this week (shout out to Rand for carrying us this week), but I’d like to take a quick moment to remind you all how horrible it is to lose to Georgia Tech. It happens so rarely these days that I think we often collectively forget that Georgia Tech is a terroristic organization that enjoys seeing the righteous world burn to the ground. UGA started 2008 as the #1 team in the country but fell short of expectations and lost to GT in Sanford Stadium to close the season. Georgia Tech fans still talk about this. They got us in 2014 in Athens, and the Jackets even beat Kirby freaking Smart in his first year in 2016 - again, in Sanford Stadium. GT head coach Brent Key is on record saying there is nothing more he hates in this world than UGA - likely because of our relentless passion for being the moral leaders of society - and would love nothing more than to ruin our season, keep us out of the playoffs, and have something to brag about for the rest of his life. We cannot give this to him. We cannot negotiate with terrorists. Get it done, Dawgs. We’re almost there.

Duke (8-3) @ Wake Forest (4-7): DUKE -4, O/U 53.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ACCN

Save face and beat an above-average Duke team. That’s about all there is to say here, right? I mean there’s a possibility Wake could sneak into a bowl game at 5-7 thanks to our outstanding APR which I’ll get into the merits or even downfalls of doing so if it happens. Most of Deacon Nation has tuned out and moved on to basketball while men’s soccer and women’s soccer are still alive in the NCAA tourney which I can’t argue with. In the words of the late, great Skip Prosser, “We’re going to be good again.” The word ‘again’ is intentionally ambiguous and indefinite and at this point do you even know which sport I’m talking about? Does it matter? Go Deacs. 

Where In The World Are We?

Rand: Everywhere, Anywhere, All at Once, or whatever that HBO show is called. Tuesday night I flew back from Sea Island, Georgia, and wrote this Nobel Prize-level newsletter with Tate while feverishly doing laundry. On Wednesday morning I’ll be driving to Charlotte to see my grandmother before driving to the NC mountains to hang out with friends and family for a few days and watch copious amounts of football and basketball. Then I’ll head to Winston-Salem to uhhhhhh do nothing except hang out with friends and family and watch copious amounts of football and basketball. Capiche greater Fisher family? I thought so. On Saturday, I’ll be at the Wake-Duke football game, and on Sunday I’ll be at Spry for the Wake-Clemson NCAA tournament game in men’s soccer, likely freezing my ass off. Have a great Thanksgiving. 

Tate: Words

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.