Lane Train: Week 3 Preview

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Sorry we didn’t get 4&F out last week, you can direct all current and future hate mail to [email protected], it was all Leah’s fault by the way. Rand and I were in Chicago and West Lafayette to watch the Cubs and the Deacs, and we saw two great wins. Ed was in Chapel Hill to see Carolina pick up an easy win against East Tennessee; win a free beer from 4&F if you can correctly name the ETSU mascot without looking it up. Last weekend was actually pretty lame from a schedule standpoint. The only game between ranked teams was OSU at Texas, where Arch Manning finally lived up to the hype; by playing great for at least one quarter against a quality opponent. Maybe let’s not give him the Heisman just yet, (insert Holly Rowe joke here). Meanwhile, one of the other OSU’s, Cowboys not Beavers, a team that had lost their last 12 games in a row including a 69-3 loss to Oregon last year, pulled off the upset of the season so far by knocking off the #6 Ducks 39-31. And yes, that earned the Ducks the coveted #5 spot in his bottom 10 list.

This week’s slate of games looks much more interesting, with WFU hosting #5 Miami on Friday, more on that later. #22 Houston travels to beautiful Lubbock to play #13 Texas Tech for an old fashioned Big 12 barn burner, that nobody east of Texarkana, north of Amarillo, or west of Clovis cares about. Carolina, the good one, at least academically, travels to Clemson for a game that did not look very interesting a few weeks ago, now looks like a potential make or break game for both teams. The get in ticket price has dropped to $21, so fan support for Dabo is dwindling in Death Valley. Of course, what I’m expecting is the Heels brief glimmer of mediocrity gets snuffed out like a prison snitch and everything is back to normal.  

#5 Miami @ Wake Forest (Miami -21, O/U 56.5)

As much as I want to pick Wake against a pretty wide spread, I just can’t. Wake’s defense looked shaky in the second half against Purdue, and although new QB and UNC transfer Gio Lopez looks like the real deal, I’m not feeling very confident about holding down Darian Mensah and the Miami offense. It’s been a while since we’ve torn down the goalposts in Winston, but it probably won’t be tonight.

#2 Georgia @ Arkansas (UGA -24.5, O/U 54.5)

In honor of our dear friend and 4&F Mount Rushmore writer Tate Smillie, we’re picking the Dawgs. It wasn’t hard to do, Arkansas is terrible, or at least they were last year, and Georgia looks set to compete for the SEC title again this year. The schedule looks relatively manageable, the toughest games are on the road at Bama and Ole Miss, which will be tough, but Tennessee, LSU and Texas are not on the schedule. If Tate was writing this, there would be an in-depth analysis of passing schemes, defensive strategy and “Woo pig! Sooiee!” jokes; but nay, he is on hiatus, whereabouts unknown.

Florida State @ #10 Alabama (Bama -19.5, O/U 48.5)

Florida State lost to #19 SMU last week by a mere field goal, 27-24, but let’s not read too much into that. SMU turned the ball over 4 times, which almost always means a loss, but FSU managed only 125 passing yards on the night and isn’t scaring anybody, certainly not Alabama. FSU fans have come to resemble Carolina fans in many ways, which should be read as an insult to both, but the similarities are striking. Always thinking their team should be better than it is, always thinking the next coach is the savior, always thinking they are a hotter commodity than they are, but being the third or fourth best team in the state really isn’t much of an accomplishment.  

#16 SMU @ #23 Louisville (Louisville -1.5, O/U 58.5)

You know it’s going to be a battle royale when a fancy pants Texas finishing school faces a white trash commuter school. Make no mistake about it, these longstanding rivals hate each other. This game has some significant implications as the winner will have the inside track on getting to the ACC championship game to likely face Miami. Of course, we know every season has it’s share of upsets, but for now, the winner will have a leg up. Louisville has looked like the better team so far, taking #8 Ole Miss down to the wire while SMU struggled to beat Florida State. Take Louisville and give the points.

West Virginia vs. Virginia in Charlotte (UVA -10.5, O/U 53.5)

For our other white trash versus finishing school battle of the week, we have the 2nd best Mountaineers team in the country against the chardonnay swilling popinjays from Charlottesville. Because the game is in Charlotte, there will be no couch burning if WVU wins; well, maybe not. And you can be sure the bar at the Ritz-Carlton will be rockin’ if the Cavaliers prevail. Given UVA’s recent dismantling of a supposedly good NC State team, stop me if you’ve heard that one before, take the Wahoos; and if you’re a UVA fan headed to the game, pair your blue blazer with some orange pants in honor of the late, great Jimmy Fannon.

#7 LSU @ #8 Ole Miss (LSU -3, O/U 58.5)

Nobody does hate quite like the SEC, and there is more than enough to go around. Lane Kiffin relishes being the bad guy, and LSU is the spoiled only child of the SEC. They crave attention and resent sharing the spotlight with any other school. After the last few seasons of underachievement, they were desperate to get back in the limelight, and hiring Kiffin away from Ole Miss was the way to do it. Now the time has come to face the jilted and bitter ex-spouse when bring your new trashy girlfriend to Oxford. The get in price for the game is $614 (this seems like a good time for a lynching joke, but I digress) and ESPN Gameday will be in the Grove to hype up the crowd all day. LSU looked very impressive in demolishing Clemson two weeks ago, but Ole Miss has the advantage of already having played and won a close game against a ranked opponent, that makes teams better. Who’s going to win?

Hotty Toddy, good gosh almighty,

Who the hell are we?

Flim flam, bim bam,

Ole Miss by damn!

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Pick a Lane, Blake: Clemson Can’t Be Dead Only When Carolina Beats It

Dabo has something left to prove. So does Bill. And that is exactly why Saturday matters.

Blake Toppmeyer of USA TODAY has discovered the latest variation of the John Fisher Theory of Carolina Football: if UNC loses, Carolina is terrible. If UNC wins, well, obviously the other team must be terrible.

It is a wonderfully efficient system. Carolina can never actually accomplish anything.

You cannot spend an entire column lowering Clemson into the grave just so a North Carolina victory Saturday can be dismissed as Bill Belichick beating a corpse.  At some point, somebody has to acknowledge who Dabo Swinney actually is: A winner.

Yes, Clemson is 1-1. Yes, LSU just beat the frosted flakes out of that other Tiger 51-10.  And, yes, needing a quarterback change before October is generally not featured in the championship-program brochure. Clemson then beat Georgia Southern 22-7, hardly proof that the dynasty has returned. 

But Dabo Swinney did not suddenly become Larry Fedora (ouch...I'll get in trouble for that one).

He enters this season as the winningest coach in ACC history, with two national championships, nine conference titles and 95 NFL draft picks during his Clemson tenure. Whatever decline Clemson may be experiencing, Dabo remains one of the great college coaches of his generation.  If Clemson were to fire this man for some reason, Carolina should hire him....immediately!

And Clemson is still Clemson.

Carolina has not won in Death Valley since 2001. The Tigers lead the series 41-19-1 (read that closely), have beaten UNC four straight times and dismantled Belichick’s first Carolina team 38-10 last season...and they could have easily scored 70.  So, let’s stop pretending that beating this program in that stadium would somehow qualify as bad news for Dabo rather than very good news for Carolina.

A Tar Heel victory would be a damned good win!

Period.

And Bill Belichick needs one.

Carolina is 2-0.  The defense has allowed 13 points in two games.  But after another turbulent week off the field with his son resigning, the investigation into the football program closing with no real information being shared, and with three players getting caught up in a scene from an early 2000's JayZ video (Escalade, Gun, Weed, Speeding, on MLK), the elder Belichick desperately needs the football conversation to become about football. 

Beating Clemson would do the trick.

Nahhhh.....I'm not there yet and here is why.

I was raised as a spoiled Carolina Basketball fan under Dean Smith: I believe in programs. I believe talent accumulated over years matters.  I believe Death Valley matters.  To that end I believe players who came to Clemson expecting championships possess enough institutional pride to look across the field Saturday and understand that losing to Carolina would turn a bad September into something much more serious.  Clemson football looks at Carolina like Tar Heel Basketball looks at the baby Tigers: with disdain....not with disrespect, but with total disdain that they even have to discuss the matter.  

The betting market agrees at least somewhat: Clemson is only a 3½-point favorite.  That sounds about right.   Two desperate programs wrestling over which narrative gets attached to them Sunday morning (and why).

The Tar Heels can absolutely win.

But I’m borrowing from Remember the Titans until further notice:

Show me, Bill. SHOW ME!!!

Until he does, I’ll take the program, the accumulated talent and the home field.

Clemson 17, North Carolina 10.

And now, my daughter's NOW Sports ai driven picks, this week featuring directional schools!  

We stayed in FBS this week because these three had the best combination of competitive lines, weird regional energy, and opportunities for the sort of questionable judgment that makes directional-school football worth watching.

The Directional School Picks

East Carolina @ Old Dominion

Old Dominion -3, O/U 48.5

East Carolina is 0-2 after losing to Appalachian State and then discovering that Alabama remains, unfortunately, Alabama. Old Dominion is 1-1 after beating Norfolk State and getting handled 44-21 at Virginia Tech. So naturally somebody has to be favored here. Vegas chose ODU by three, presumably after losing a coin flip. (Underdog Dynasty)

This feels like exactly the sort of game ECU wins immediately after convincing everyone not to trust them.

And let us never underestimate Pirate fans. They can turn a six o’clock kickoff in Norfolk into something resembling an SEC road game with significantly more purple and an alarming disregard for tomorrow morning.

ECU’s offense has been ugly—17 points per game through two weeks—but ODU hasn’t exactly built the 1985 Bears defense. The Monarchs are allowing 27 per game, and this rivalry has enough regional hostility to make three points feel important. (FanDuel)

I am not prepared to call ECU good.

I am prepared to call them angry.

Take East Carolina +3.

Wyoming @ Central Michigan

Central Michigan -1.5, O/U 38.5

An over/under of 38.5 is not a betting total.

It is a cry for help.

Central Michigan just beat Colgate 13-10 after trailing 10-0 at halftime. Wyoming needed a fourth-quarter rally to beat Northern Colorado 21-13. Neither offense appears particularly interested in putting undue stress on the scoreboard operator. (Central Michigan University Athletics)

Central Michigan has home field. Wyoming has a defense that historically makes explosive passing plays difficult. Both teams are 1-1. Both have disappointed bettors so far.

Somewhere in Mount Pleasant, a punter is stretching right now knowing this could be his Heisman moment.

The line has bounced around pick’em, with books showing CMU anywhere from a small favorite to Wyoming slightly favored. The important number is 38.5. (FanDuel)

You could watch four quarters and still wonder whether either team crossed midfield.

Beautiful.

Take UNDER 38.5.

And because somebody legally has to win: Central Michigan 20, Wyoming 17.

Ohio @ South Alabama

South Alabama -6.5, O/U 49.5

This is the best game of the three.

South Alabama is 1-1 after beating Southeastern Louisiana 39-14 and then taking Tulane to the wire in a 28-24 loss. More interestingly, the Jaguars lead the country in time of possession at 38:55 per game. That means South Alabama doesn’t merely beat you—it keeps the football until you begin reconsidering your hobbies. (University of South Alabama Athletics)

Ohio is also 1-1, but the Bobcats arrive in Mobile emotionally exhausted after beating Jacksonville State 29-27 in four overtimes. Before that, Nebraska beat them 49-21. (Sports Reference)

There is one reason to hesitate: Ohio beat South Alabama 27-20 the last time these teams met in 2024. (Ohio University)

There is also one reason not to hesitate: this game is in Mobile, and South Alabama has looked like the more complete football team through two weeks.

The Jaguars control the clock, have covered both of their games this season, and came within four points of Tulane on the road. (Covers.com)

Six and a half is uncomfortable.

But discomfort is why God invented gambling columns.

Take South Alabama -6.5.

The Directional Card

East Carolina +3
Wyoming–Central Michigan UNDER 38.5
South Alabama -6.5

Last week we gave love to the 1890s. This week we salute America’s great compass-point institutions—because somebody has to determine whether football is better in the East, West, North, South or, apparently, Central.

Note: These selections were produced in collaboration with AI and reviewed by a NOW Sports human editor.

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Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.