Home Stretch: Conference Championship Preview

Sponsored by

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. 9 conference championship games and 9 games with a spread of less than a touchdown. What else were you planning on doing this weekend? Checking out the local Christmas lights show? Didn’t think so. Let’s get right into it. 

News and Notes

Apologies for the delay on this edition but our corporate overlords are holding our feet to the fire this week. However, if you are like us and want to make enough money to never work again then we’ll be back with our ESPN bowl challenge once the bowls are finalized on Sunday. Same as last year, it’ll be $10 to enter, one entry per person, and straight up pick ‘em - no confidence points or against the spread. Last year, friend of the newsletter Sam Weinbach saved us from calls of impropriety by narrowly defeating Tate. We’ll follow up with the link and payment information next week. 

This is the busiest time of the year in college football with the coaching carousel humming, the transfer portal opening on Monday, and National Early Signing Day wrapping up a few days back. How teams in their conference championship games or programs without a coach navigate this is beyond us but it’s not our problem as we can just make fun of them. App State fired head coach Shawn Clark which was a welcome move on the Mountain but there’s a lot of pressure on the next guy because App doesn’t accept losing. A name being floated around that we think would be an incredible hire is former West Virginia coach Neal Brown. Brown cut his teeth in the Sun Belt at Troy but could not get over the hump in Morgantown. Don’t fuck this up App and go get him. Speaking of West Virginia, some heavy-hitting donors are pining to bring Rich Rodriguez back to town and if not, bring Jimbo Fisher home to his alma mater. Either of those guys would excite the guys in the skyboxes but the Slaton/White days are almost two decades old and he’ll inevitably and unfairly be judged against his old tenure. Jimbo couldn’t win at one of the most resourced schools in the country. Therefore, we say hire either one of them because it’s destined to go up in flames. 

Speaking of schools that want to make headlines, UNC interviewed Bill Belichick for their open head coaching role. We all thought UNC would hire a young gun who can connect with recruits and capitalize on being in a fertile recruiting ground but Bill has never worked in CFB and is older than Mack Brown. Sure, make your headlines UNC but we’ll believe this hire when we see it. But IF we do, holy hell will that be an interesting marriage. As for the portal which isn’t officially open yet there are a few big names to keep your eye on. Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold and USC QB Miller Moss are about to get paiddddddd. As of now they’re the two best QB entrants and barring surprises will name their school and price…hello, Auburn. At receiver, keep your eyes on former 5-star WR Micah Hudson from Texas Tech and NC State WR KC Concepcion. They’ll be equally bought, er sought, after by the biggest teams in the sport. We’ll have more on the portal when the time comes, but for now let’s focus on football since you know, it’s conference championship weekend or something. 

Who’s Getting These Damn Byes?

Mountain West - #20 UNLV (10-2) @ #10 Boise State (11-1): BOISE -4, O/U 57.5 - Friday 8:00 pm ET FOX

Surprisingly, the MWC Championship is the game that will have the biggest impact on the playoff seedings. If UNLV wins, they’ll lock up the 12 seed and we’ll have a nice, harmonious top 4 seeds made up of the P4 conference champions. If Boise wins, they’ll sweat out Selection Sunday to see if they get jumped by the Big 12 winner or possibly Clemson for the 4th seed and the coveted first-round bye. If you want arcane hypotheticals and blind resume rankings, head to Twitter, not 4&F. We’re here for the game and will worry about playoff implications on Sunday.

We all know the deal with Boise: feed Ashton Jeanty like that fat kid eating cake in Matilda. The cause for concern is the volatility of Boise State’s passing attack and QB Maddux Madsen. He’s been serviceable and doesn’t turn the ball over, but he’s had 6 games under 200 passing yards and is only completing 61% of his passes. Yes, a lot of that is due to the presence of Jeanty’s chokehold on the offensive game plan, but if UNLV makes this a tight one and Maddux needs to go out and win it, the Broncos should be worried. UNLV has flown under the radar since their October defeat to these same Broncos but are 4-0 since. They have one of the top rushing defenses in the nation and held Jeanty to a season low of 128 yards on 33 carries. They have the goods to bottle up Jeanty, the question is can they find WR Ricky White enough to spread the defense and let QB Hajj-Malik Williams take off running? This will be a fun appetizer for championship weekend and one of those games you’ll watch on TV and think “thank God I am not there.”

Big 12 - #16 Iowa State (10-2) vs #15 Arizona State (10-2): ASU -2, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ABC

Ahh yes, the P4 conference title game with a playoff spot on the line that we all expected (checks notes), Iowa State and Arizona State! We’ve got to start by giving our flowers to both of these programs because outside of a couple of good years for the Cyclones in the past decade, absolutely nobody would’ve thought that either of these teams would have a shot at the first ever 12-team playoff - especially ASU who many people picked last in the conference this season. Great jobs by Matt Campbell and Kenny Dillingham, and we think this is the type of thing that makes the new playoff format so intriguing for so many more fanbases.

It is, however, very unfortunate that ASU’s best (read: only) receiver Jordyn Tyson had to have surgery for an undisclosed injury and will not only miss this game but the rest of the season for the Sun Devils should they advance here. Tyson has been the go-to guy in the passing game when the Sun Devils have needed it (over 1,000 yards already this season), and without him, the offense has a tendency to become incredibly one-dimensional, over-reliant on running back Cam Skattebo and unable to push the ball downfield. That’s a major concern heading into this game against a very complicated and disciplined Iowa State defense. The Cyclones have two 1,000 receivers themselves in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel who are both healthy, so we’re giving the offensive advantage to ISU here. But you’d be a fool to rule out a scenario where Skattebo puts the team on his back and absolutely wills the Sun Devils to victory like he has done several times already this season. This is going to be a fun game between two Cinderella stories and we’re expecting a tight one.

SEC - #5 Georgia (10-2) vs #2 Texas (11-1): TEX -2.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 4:00 pm ET ABC

Well, we’re back where we started folks. As many people predicted in the preseason, it's the Dawgs in the Longhorns in Atlanta fighting for a bye in the first round of the playoff, but the path that each team took to get to this point would’ve been almost impossible for anybody to predict exactly. We’ve spent plenty of time talking about the shortcomings of this UGA team - it has not been a very “fun” year for the fans, with regular season losses and pathetic performances littered throughout. The absolute unpredictability of this team makes every game - including this one - a crapshoot. I have no idea what version of this team is going to show up whenever they take the field, and not being ready to play has come back to bite us several times this season.

But that didn’t happen in Austin against these guys back in October. The Dawgs came out ready to play, absolutely whooped Texas up front and had Quinn Ewers seeing so many ghosts that the Horns didn’t even make it to halftime before giving Arch Manning a shot at it. I’m expecting a much heavier dose of Arch this time around, because one of the main things we’ve seen the Dawgs struggle with is the extra blocker in the QB run game. Milroe cooked us, Jaxson Dart had a ton of success running on us, and Haynes King could not be stopped on the ground for hours last Friday. The Dawgs have already proved that if Texas leaves Ewers back there as a complete statue, we’re going to just tee off, force him to get the ball out quick, and dare them to make plays on the perimeter. I do not think that is a successful gameplan, as Georgia has already proven, especially with star left tackle Kelvin Banks banged up. Expect to see Arch early and often.

With that said, again, we have absolutely no clue what we’re going to get out of this Georgia offense. They’ve been completely lifeless and ineffective for long stretches of games this season, and Texas is not a team you can afford to screw around and punt the ball to for too long. The Georgia offense has got to find a way to establish itself on the ground in the first half to set up the passing game, and the receivers just simply have to catch the balls that are thrown to them. We still lead all of college football in drops, and that cannot continue to be such a massive hindrance on our offensive operation if we want to earn a first round bye with a win. More than anything, the offense needs to have energy from the opening kickoff. Somebody needs to step up and assert dominance out there, because we’ve seen how horrid we can look when everybody plays like they don’t even want to be there. Dom Lovett and Nate Frazier, I’m calling on you two to get that done.

I’ve got to be honest Dawg fans, I am really feeling confident about this one. It’s hard to beat a good team twice, but the one thing this team has been missing at times is a level of confidence in themselves that allows them to go out there, play fast and free and make plays. But this team already knows it can beat Texas if it plays well - I think we show up with that energy, we make a couple of plays downfield early, and force Texas into a QB change by halftime. Second half QB changes don’t bode well for the Dawgs in Atlanta historically, and maybe Arch takes over and wins it for the Horns. But I don’t think so. People have been doubting us all week once again, just like they did back in October. Let’s make them eat their words again. Show up and be loud Dawg fans, let’s make them hope they never have to play this game again.

ACC - #17 Clemson (9-3) vs #8 SMU (11-1): SMU -2.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET ABC

Leave it to the ACC to have a conference championship between a school that’s competing in the conference for the first time ever and the historical powerhouse who snuck in thanks to an upset loss by Miami even after losing to their bitter rival the same weekend. Maybe the way to save the ACC is to admit a new member every year because they’ll end up in the ACC Championship game against Clemson. This happened in 2020 when Notre Dame ‘joined’ the conference in the COVID year and then got killed by Clemson in Charlotte. 

How many SMU games have you watched this year? Was it the Week 0 matchup against Nevada where they squeaked by a now 3-10 Mountain West team? The beatdown against Florida State that showed more about Florida State’s incompetence than SMU’s lack thereof. The loss to BYU? Win over Louisville? The answer is likely zero and there’s not a problem with that. Their SOS is a paltry 75th overall which is more in line with Boise State and Indiana than it is with other playoff contenders like Clemson, Ohio State, and Georgia. The name to know with SMU is QB Kevin Jennings who replaced the incumbent starter Preston Stone in September. At the time, we chided head coach Rhett Lashlee for replacing the dude who threw for 3,100 yards and 28 TDs a year ago but Jennings has more than justified the decision. Jennings isn’t a particularly polished passer but he limits mistakes and can scoot too. 

SMU earns its bread on the defensive side of the ball as they have the ACCs best scoring and rushing defense. Clemson is going to need a good game from QB Cade Klubnik and the receiving corps to keep up with SMUs high powered offense. The problem with needing Klubnik to sit back in the pocket and attack is SMU has racked up 14 sacks in their previous two games including a whopping 9 against UVA. Therefore, expect to see a lot of screens, check-downs, and an unimaginative offense from Clemson which is par for the course. Of all the championship games this weekend, this might be the one where we both wouldn’t be surprised with any result. 

Lastly, we mentioned we don’t do hypotheticals for the playoff but if SMU loses and doesn’t make the playoff then burn conference championships to the game. They should not get punished for playing an extra game while a team like Alabama or even worse, Miami would theoretically sneak into the playoff. Earlier this week, Lashlee joked his team should fake a Covid outbreak and not play. If they lose and miss the dance, they’ll wish they had. 

Big Ten - #3 Penn State (10-2) vs #1 Oregon (11-1): ORE -3.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET FOX

There is so, so much we want to say on Ryan Day and Ohio State but we’ll leave that for the offseason pending Ohio State’s playoff performance. Instead, Penn State back-doored themselves into the Big 10 championship and with a chance to lock up the #1 seed with a win here. The inherent problem is Penn State is coached by James Franklin who has a better shot at unifying the Korean Peninsula than winning a game he’s an underdog in. Franklin and OC Andy Kotelnicki will come out with some of the craziest formations you’ll see in today’s game. They’ll try to get TE Tyler Warren in any manner possible. Even though he’s a tight end, he’ll line up at WR, RB, and even QB and throw some passes. He’s a Brock Bowers-esque game wrecker and it’d behoove the Ducks to keep their eyes on him (duh).

The Ducks are a buzzsaw and have WR Tez Johnson back from injury which is a massive boost. The Ducks have played with their food at some points in the season but obviously have not lost yet. A loss would likely knock them down to the #5 seed which wouldn’t be the worst outcome given it’d give us a first round playoff game in Eugene. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, this is the best team in the nation and Penn State is just happy to be here. Keep your eyes on some tomfoolery and trickeration by both teams, but we shouldn’t be surprised with the end result here. 

Dub app raises $17M for first regulated copy trading platform

On Dub, you don't pick the stocks you want to invest in. You pick the people you want to copy, with portfolios based on hedge fund managers, investing experts, and even law makers.

When you copy a portfolio on Dub, you execute the same trades as them automatically. Dub’s team hopes this will make investing more transparent and accessible.

Dub is SEC-registered, member FINRA. All deposits are SIPC-insured.

Free Trial, $89 annually (iOS)

Not investment advice. Full disclosures here.

Tate’s Great Picks (58-59)

Your boy went 7-3 last week to move back to right around .500 on the year, so it’s time to make this damn thing happen and get back to a winning record. It’s been a profitable year for me in total, but I’m so close to being over .500 that I simply need to make it happen before we take a little break after this weekend. Let’s do it.

Mountain West - #20 UNLV (10-2) @ #10 Boise State (11-1): BOISE -4, O/U 57.5 - Friday 8:00 pm ET FOX

Pick Boise -4: Say what you will about how the Broncos have started to look shaky in recent weeks, but we already saw this UNLV team, at full strength and at home, still lose to Boise. UNLV has also not played a cold weather game yet this season, it looks like it’s going to be below freezing during the game Friday, and football folks will tell you the worst part about playing in the cold is when a team is successfully running it down your throat and wearing you out. Boise State has Ashton Jeanty. Give me the Broncos to seal a bye in the first round of the CFP.

Big 12 - #16 Iowa State (10-2) vs #15 Arizona State (10-2): ASU -2, O/U 49.5 - Saturday 12:00 pm ET ABC

Pick Iowa State +2: The loss of star WR Jordyn Tyson makes the Sun Devils offense entirely one-dimensional with Cam Skattebo at running back, and I’m struggling to see how Iowa State doesn’t limit the success of that effort. While both defenses are good, the Cyclones have the offensive advantage here and I think they get it done to win the Big 12.

Big Ten - #3 Penn State (10-2) vs #1 Oregon (11-1): ORE -3.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET FOX

Pick Oregon -3.5: This line being this low is a little worrisome to me, but there’s simply no way I’m betting on anything other than James Franklin sh*tting the bed in a massive moment. Ducks are the most consistent team in the country, Oregon gets it done.

ACC - #17 Clemson (9-3) vs #8 SMU (11-1): SMU -2.5, O/U 55.5 - Saturday 8:00 pm ET ABC

Pick SMU -2.5: This one is here really only because I want to make a pick on every game, but I do think SMU has a great shot of controlling this game on the ground and putting Clemson into one of their famous offensive tailspins. I’ll call my shot here and say SMU gets up relatively early and Clemson turns it over a couple times trying to mount a comeback. Pony up.

SEC - #5 Georgia (10-2) vs #2 Texas (11-1): UTA -2.5, O/U 50.5 - Saturday 4:00 pm ET ABC

Take UGA +2.5: Come on. You know it. I know it. It’s the Dawgs.

On the rapid fire front, I’ll start with the Game Total Under 58.5 in the Western Kentucky/Jax State game. These two teams played literally last week, and that level of recent familiarity with an opponent typically favors the defense. Rand is going the opposite direction below, but I’m going with Louisiana -5 in the Sun Belt title game as Marshall head coach Charles Huff has seemingly had one foot out the door all week, likely headed to Southern Miss. Can’t be a good vibe in the Marshall locker room headed into this one. Lastly, I’m taking Tulane -4.5 because I think they may just obliterate an Army pass defense that isn’t very good. Let’s have a perfect week on the books, shall we?

OnlyRans (64-70)

Rapid Fire Randy improved on his 8-4 Week 13 performance with an 8-3 record last weekend. That equates to a 16-7 over the past two weeks for the African American Studies majors at UNC. The five games we previewed above won’t be enough to get me over the elusive .500 mark unless I go back to guessing over/under lines which has gone about as well as Matt Gaetz’s bid to be the Attorney General. Therefore, I’m going to pick every single conference championship game and finally make it to the promised land.

Starting in the MAC of course give me Ohio +2 against Miami (OH). The Bobcats have been to the MAC Championship 5 times this century and have lost all five times. They have to win one of these eventually…right? In the Sun Belt, I like Marshall +6 against Louisiana purely for narrative purposes. Marshall tried to fire head coach Charles Huff last year but couldn’t get the money together. Huff and the Marshall admin have a spicy relationship and all he’s done is lead the Herd to the conference championship game. Huff is likely going to be announced as the new head coach at Southern Miss by the end of the weekend and winning the conference championship on his way out the door would be the ultimate middle finger.

In Conference USA, Jacksonville State -5 hosts Western Kentucky one week after the Hilltoppers beat them in Bowling Green 19-17. Given this game is in Alabama, I like the Gamecocks to avenge the loss and cover the spread. As mentioned, RichRod has a huge incentive to win this game and potentially parlay it in a return to Morgantown. Also on Friday night, give me Tulane -4.5 in West Point against Army. Tulane is coming off a surprising loss to Memphis but that doesn’t scare me as the week before they trounced Navy 35-0. Also, half of Michie Stadium is under construction so as long as the NOLA boys bring their hand warmers, they should be fine here. To close out the Friday night slate, give me Boise State -4 over UNLV. As Tate mentioned, the Broncos have a huge advantage with this game being played outside on the Smurf Turf. I don’t fully agree that they will seal a first round bye with a win here but style points matter and they’ll run it up.

On Saturday I like two favorites and two underdogs in the P4 championships. Clemson +2 against SMU is the first underdog pick and might be approaching lock territory. SMU has not faced a team with even half the talent Clemson possesses, particularly on defense. SMU fans will travel but this will be a quasi-home game for the Tigers in Charlotte. I’m also going to follow Tate with Iowa State +2 over Arizona State in Dallas. Arizona State is a great story but an injury to their best offensive weapon isn’t ideal. Iowa State has the coaching, injury, and QB advantage here and the fact I can get them as underdogs makes this another lock. 

It’ll be a cold day in hell before I ever bet on Penn State in a high-profile game. The spread could be Oregon -13.5 and I’d still (stupidly) take it. Oregon -3.5 all day long as James Franklin continues his bid to get on the Mount Rushmore of coaches who come up short in big moments. The only question is does he want to be on the right or left side of Ryan Day? Apologies to the UGA fans but I’m rolling with the Horns -2.5 this weekend. Rematches tend to favor the loser and since their mid-October matchup, I think these two teams have gone in opposite directions. Texas figured out how to play defense and their offense is (slowly) coming along. Georgia could very well come out with the same defensive performance they showed in Austin, but there’s little reason for me to bet on Beck given his recent form. My phone and email are open if Georgia rolls here, but I don’t think that’s happening. 

Where In The World Are We?

Rand: My 2024 CFB travel schedule is unofficially* over. I believe I saw 11 games in 5 different stadiums in 3 different states. Now I’ll finally sit in Atlanta and watch other teams' seasons come to a merciless end. Misery enjoys company.

*Who’s to say I don’t end up at a bowl game, playoff game, or the national championship which just so happens to be in Atlanta this year?

Tate: The Dawgs are playing in the SEC Championship against the #2 team in the country in my hometown of Atlanta. Where do you think I’ll be?

Follow us on Twitter: @4thandforever_

Thanks for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this endeavor. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.