Gut Punch: Week 5 Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. College Football gives us all some of the most incredible and unforgettable moments, and after a largely sleepy first few weeks of the season, Week 5 delivered in that regard. However, sometimes those moments happen against your team and make your two favorite college football newsletter authors start to wonder when basketball season is starting. It was a weekend full of banger games, top-10 upsets, and ridiculous individual performances, so without further ado, let’s (unfortunately) get to it.

Week 5 Recap

Big Game Breakdown

The Georgia game against Alabama on Saturday was a classic for the casual viewer/viewers with no rooting interest but was one of the most frustrating losses I (Tate) have ever seen as a Georgia fan. Two weeks after I wrote about how I was ready to chalk the Kentucky performance up as a fluke, we came out of a bye week in our biggest moment of the season and looked absolutely unprepared to play a football game. Yes, Alabama surprised us by showing us looks that they haven’t shown all year - like moving into Cover 0 blitz looks in passing downs from the jump which we had a hard time adjusting to until nearly halftime - but there was and is no excuse for us to come out as lifeless as we did. At a certain point, this coaching staff needs to look itself in the mirror and figure out why our players look like robots to start games. The energy, the “juice” we had behind Stetson Bennett is just not there anymore. Alabama was ready to roll as soon as the game kicked off, and we had to have our coaches circle the team up in the second quarter to manufacture that energy. Why?

It was a hell of a comeback, and our ability to adjust to the tricks Alabama had up their sleeves was encouraging. Once Carson Beck and the coaching staff got on the same page about how to attack Bama’s looks, they started exploiting them. And for as poorly as the defense tackled and contained Milroe in the first half, they buttoned up and showed how good they can be for most of the second half. But we put ourselves in too much of a hole where our margin for error was exactly zero, and all it took was one of the most impressive plays I have ever seen for Bama to bring the crowd back to life and finish us off. Not enough can be said about both Jalen Milroe - who seems to be entirely unlocked under Kalen Deboer - and Ryan Williams (who if you haven’t heard, is only eleven years old). That was one of the most remarkable QB/WR performances I’ve seen in my life. Williams’ performance in particular raises other questions about our staff’s ability/willingness to do what it takes to get game-breaking offensive skill players to sign with us, and even further questions about why a guy like Anthony Evans - a legitimate 4.2 40-yard-dash guy - can’t even get on the field in his second year in the program.

This loss was entirely on us for allowing that first half to get as out-of-hand as it did, and we have some serious self-reflecting to do about why we can’t start playing like we’re a good team until the second halves of games. Clemson, Kentucky, and now Alabama - three of our first four games - we have looked like we’d rather be at home watching TV than playing a game for an entire half. Leaders need to step up on this roster, yes, but this is on our coaches. We are one of the best teams in the country, but we cannot continue to do this if we expect to do anything of significance this season. We have two weeks to figure it out before we head to Austin to play Texas, and right now I’m unconvinced that this team has the intangibles of a national championship squad.

Elsewhere in the SEC, Kentucky beat #6 Ole Miss 20-17, raising existential questions about the ceiling at Ole Miss. NIL and the (transfer) Portal King Lane Kiffin were supposed to elevate Ole Miss from really good to elite but Kentucky abused Ole Miss up front and won the time of possession battle by holding the ball for 66% of the game. Speaking of abuse, Ole Miss is still blatantly abusing the fake injury loophole and has gotten more brazen in doing it. I (Rand) touched on it following the Wake game where I saw this loser act in person. The expectation given the talent and schedule was for Ole Miss to be in the playoff with an 11-1 record and a loss to Georgia. Now the Rebs’ margin for error is zero and must travel to South Carolina and LSU in consecutive weeks. I am still under the impression that Kiffin has Ole Miss at its ceiling which is a fringe playoff contender that doesn’t have the depth to truly compete. I’ll take under 1.5 years before he is at Florida or Auburn. 

Speaking of Auburn, they blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead and let true freshman QB Michael Hawkins Jr. beat them at home in his first career start. Even worse, Oklahoma’s entire starting WR corps was out with injuries as the Sooners completed a measly 10 passes on the day. The game-changing play was a 63-yard pick six which put Oklahoma up for good. Auburn is dead last in the country with a -11 turnover margin and now heads to Athens, GA. Oklahoma meanwhile has no semblance of an offense but is good enough on defense to keep them in every game. The Sooners and Kentucky are going to be pesky outs for the rest of their SEC opponents. 

Seasons of Dreams & Screams

It might be too early to call it a season of dreams but can we settle for the best month in program history for Duke, Rutgers, and Indiana? These perennial bottom feeders rank 88th, 101st, and 127th in all time winning percentage yet are combined 14-0 on the year. Rutgers is led by workhorse RB Kyle Monangai who finished with 132 yards on 25 carries and a touchdown in their 21-18 win over Washington who missed a 55-yard field goal to tie it at the buzzer. Indiana and new coach Curt Cignetti brought in a litany of transfers but none bigger than QB Kurtis Rourke. The Hoosiers will likely be favored in their next four Big 10 matchups before hosting Michigan and traveling to Columbus come mid-November. Lastly, the Blue Devils spotted UNC a 20-point lead before scoring three second-half touchdowns and winning the Victory Bell by a final score of 21-20. Per usual, UNC could not tackle to save their life but more concerning was their inability to run out the clock with RB Omarion Hampton who was the most talented player on the field by a wide margin. The Heels face an undefeated Pitt team at home next week while Duke heads to Atlanta and face the Yellow Jackets. 

If you are under the age of 18 please receive parental permission as we are about to talk about Florida State’s offense. In their 41-16 loss to SMU, DJU went 12/30 for 222 yards, 2 TDs, and three picks. FSU’s inability to run the ball (131st in the nation averaging 65 yards/game) puts pressure on DJU who is ill-equipped to handle it. Next up for FSU is Clemson who might open as 4 touchdown favorites after whooping Stanford 40-14 Saturday night. The Tigers continue to look more impressive by the week, having now scored 165 points over their past three games after scoring only 3 against Georgia.

On Friday night in Miami, Canes head coach Mario Cristobal got out Mario Cristobal-ed by Virginia Tech coach Brent Pry who showed his late-game clock management incompetence and still almost won. This game was indicative of the volatility and unpredictability of college football teams week over week. Coming into the game Miami was one of the best teams in the nation in stopping the run and getting to the quarterback. Of course against the Hokies who proved they could do neither of those things racked up 206 yards on the ground and protected Kyron Drones. Miami QB Cam Ward overcame 3 turnovers of his own and marched Miami down the field to take the lead 38-34 with two minutes to go. Virginia Tech responded and with 3 seconds left launched a Hail Mary that resulted in both teams celebrating their victory. On the field, officials ruled it a touchdown and then reversed it to an incomplete ass after it was deemed a Miami defender touched the loose ball while out of bounds thus making it incomplete. Watch the replay for yourself and good luck figuring out who actually caught it and when. It was one of those plays exceedingly rare in college football where you genuinely don’t know what happened but a win is a win is a win for Miami who isn’t as flawless as once thought. For Virginia Tech…pain. Miami made miraculous plays when it mattered most and the Hokies likely wouldn’t have been in that position if it weren't for an unnecessary fake field goal call earlier in the game. 

Quick Hitters

Georgia and Alabama played the only top-10 matchup of the weekend, but there was still intrigue around the country amongst the nation’s best teams - especially in one conference in particular. #10 Utah was once again without QB Cam Rising, who at this point is more of an idea than a real man, and took a bad home loss to Arizona 23-10. Bad stuff from the Utes who now have much less room for error, especially because in state rival #22 BYU is now 5-0 after traveling down to Waco and taking down Baylor despite being underdogs for some reason. Hell, even Colorado is now 4-1 after smoking UCF on the road 48-21 on Saturday. We promise to stop being mean about the Buffs for a little while. #23 Kansas State demolished #20 Oklahoma State as well, keeping the Wildcats alive while likely sending the Cowboys to something more like the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl than the College Football Playoff. We knew the Big 12 title race would be one of the most interesting storylines this season with a top-four seed and first-round bye on the line, and it’s lived up to the billing so far. 

In the Big Ten, #9 Penn State took down #19 Illinois 21-7 but looked somewhat uninspiring in doing so. The defense looks like one of the country’s best, but the offense looked a lot more like the aggressively average unit they were in 2023 than they have at times early this season. #3 Ohio State overcame a bit of a slow start and pulled away from Michigan State 38-7, and while Ryan Williams stole the national attention on Saturday night, don’t forget about Jeremiah Smith who was doing things like this against the Spartans. #8 Oregon cruised past UCLA with ease, while #12 Michigan survived a late scare against Minnesota 27-24.

A Moment for the G5

Is on-field success indicative of future military prowess? Unclear but Army & Navy are both 4-0 for the first time since World War II. Navy holds the better resume with a win over Memphis two weeks ago but still has to face Tulane while Army’s schedule remains pretty light. There’s a lot of football left to be played but there’s a distinct possibility that these two could play each other in the AAC Championship game a week before the Army-Navy game which is a nonconference matchup the next week. Both teams still have to face Notre Dame - Navy in MetLife and Army at Yankee Stadium - but the service academies have likely already boxed out the AAC from making the playoff. 

If there’s one link you click on today make sure it’s this one of Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. He ran for 259 yards and 4 touchdowns in their 45-24 victory over previous unbeaten Washington State on the Smurf Turf. On the season, Jeanty has 845 yards and 13 TDs which is a Heisman level pace. That’s more yards than 89 other FBS teams and more TDs than 116 of them. The Broncos are on a collision course with UNLV at the end of October who is also 4-0 after pummelling Fresno State 59-14. Jeanty will have his hands full with UNLV’s rush defense which is 14th nationally in giving up 83 yards/game. If you remember, UNLV’s starting QB Matthew Sluka left the team early last week over unpaid NIL fees which thrust Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams into the starting role. Williams finished with 301 total yards and 4 TDs and now hosts Syracuse on Friday night as they go for their 3rd Power 4 victory on the season. That resume would trump other G5 playoff contenders like James Madison who’s 4-0 but doesn’t have another P4 opponent on the schedule and the UNC win probably isn’t going to carry much weight for them.

Holding Ourselves Accountable

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 8-3 - Season Record: 22-19

W - Army -12.5: beat Temple 42-14

W - Oklahoma -2.5: beat Auburn 27-21

W - Clemson -21: beat Stanford 40-14

W - Iowa State -13.5: beat Houston 20-0

W - Kansas State -4.5: beat Oklahoma State 42-20

W - BYU -3.5: beat Baylor 34-28

W - Nebraska -10: beat Purdue 29-10

L/W - Washington State +7.5, Game Total Over 64.5: lost to Boise State 45-24

L - Michigan -9: beat Minnesota 27-24

L - FSU @ SMU Game Total Under 47.5: SMU won 41-16

Pretty good week on the books! After we sent Thursday’s newsletter out last week, I texted Rand and told him I’d never been more confident in a collection of Tate’s Great Picks than I was this week. The FSU/SMU under and the Wazzu +7.5 picks ended up being bad calls while Michigan absolutely screwed me by being incompetent late in the game, but overall I will definitely take it. Hop on the Tate’s Great Picks train now folks, because I’m just getting rolling.

OnlyRans: Last week: 4-3 - Season Record: 17-26

W/L - Alabama +2, Game Total under 48.5: beat Georgia 41-34

W - Illinois +19: lost to Penn State 21-7

W - UNLV -1.5: beat Fresno State 59-14

W - MTSU @ Memphis Game Total under 61.5: Memphis won 24-7

L - Louisville +6.5: lost to Notre Dame 31-24

L - Miami -18.5: beat Virginia Tech 38-34

Push - Texas A&M -4: beat Arkansas 21-17

My overall W-L record is abysmal but on the season I’m 2-2-1 in terms of profitability so it hasn’t been that bad. Missing the Louisville and TAMU games by a total of 0.5 points is annoying but that could’ve easily yielded an 0-2 record instead of 0-1-1. I said in the Miami/Virginia Tech preview that either result would allow me to laugh at the Hokies or Hurricanes and woo buddy was that close for Miami. After dominating for the first four weeks of the season, Mario Cristobal’s in-game decision-making reared its ugly head but was saved by Virginia Tech’s horrendous clock management and the ACC officials. 

Wake Forest

(1-3) Wake Forest 38 - (3-1) Louisiana 41: As an experienced Wake fan I will be the first to tell you all losses like that never get any easier even when you can see them coming from a mile away. Unfortunately, I copied that sentence from my recap of the Virginia game earlier this year. After Wake threw an interception with the game tied 31-31 in the 4th quarter, I turned to my friend and said they were going to trade touchdowns and then Louisiana would kick a game-winning field goal to win 41-38. The only thing I got wrong is Wake would have the opportunity to kick a game-tying field goal of their own which unsurprisingly clanked off the upright. Do I enjoy gloating about my ability to predict the future of Wake football games? Hell no, but my point is I’ve seen this movie a thousand times and I don’t know what can be done to fix it. I think it’d be a cop-out to reduce it to the defense simply needs to be better even if it’s that obvious. Injuries, offensive turnovers, and special teams gaffes at the worst possible times are also to blame here. 

During the Wolford/Newman/Hartman glory years of 2016-2021, Wake was 17-8 in one-possession games but that’s slipped to 3-8 since. That’s indicative of having a confident, balanced team who knew they could get a stop or execute a game-winning drive. Wake is still talented and QB Hank Bachmeier is balling but Clawson himself can’t point to a single unit on defense that needs to improve because improvement needs to come across the board, in all three phases, and on the sidelines. Additionally, a loss to a G5 team was unfortunately inevitable even if losing to one is inexcusable. Wake was fortunate and/or good enough to beat Tulane twice, App State, Utah State twice, Old Dominion, and Liberty in recent years. All of those games came down to a single possession except one. We’re probably not going bowling but it’s too early in the season and the schedule is too light to call this season a bust. Wake just needs to gain the confidence and depth to execute in close games which only comes with game experience. Onto Raleigh which has been a recent house of horrors but it’s not like State is brimming with confidence right now either. Go Deacs. 

Texts of the Week

“I think you guys have talked me into being all in on basketball. I’m ready to be hurt again” - Ben C. who knows the danger of believing in Wake basketball to the fullest extent. It’s the hope that kills ya

“I mean this is just embarrassing.” & “Pretty sad honestly.” - Two more Wake fans whose identities will remain anonymous

“Put Dwan Mathis in.” - Alex S

“It’s almost Dawgs basketball season at least.” - Robbie E

“Kentucky is the greatest ass team of all time.” - Alex S

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.