Conference Championships Recap

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. All good things must come to an end and nowhere is that sentiment taking hold stronger than in Athens, GA, and Tallahassee, FL right now. In this edition, we pour one out for the Dawgs & Noles, tell you how you can make oodles of money with the knowledge you’ve garnered from reading this newsletter, and recap the collective worst betting performance in 4&F history, so without further ado, let’s get to it.

4th & Forever Bowl Pick ‘Em Group

We teased that we would be doing a Bowl Pick ‘Em Group a few newsletters ago, and now that the bowls are finalized, it’s time to make your picks. Using the invite link here and at the end of the section, you can join the 4&F group on ESPN. One entry per person and the buy-in is $10. Winner takes all with second place getting their money back. You can Venmo @Rand-Fisher or @Tate-Smillie to enter. If you don’t have Venmo, we accept carrier pigeon or any other method that gets $10 in our pockets. If you can get $10 to us outside of Venmo, we can certainly get it back to you when you win the group. It’s straight-up pick ‘em, no confidence points or picking the spread. The first bowl game kicks off on Saturday, December 16th at 11 am so make sure all your picks are in by then.

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Playoff Controversy

We might have to do some flight tracking to see if Florida State AD Michael Alford is on his way to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to try and get some PIF money so the Noles can leave the ACC and go independent until the SEC (hopefully) calls. As you surely know by now, Florida State got hosed when the CFP committee chose one-loss Bama over the undefeated Noles. We completely understand the argument that FSU is a different team with their Heisman-caliber QB Jordan Travis, but Power 5 is Power 5 for a reason and if you run the table, win your conference championship, and don’t get in over not one but two one-loss teams, it’s a hose job. Why was Liberty rewarded for going undefeated but FSU wasn’t? If the committee was picking the four best teams and doesn’t think FSU can compete without their star QB then why are they ranked ahead of Georgia? Florida State has all the right in the world to go scorched earth here. Would they likely get rocked by Michigan in the Rose Bowl compared to Bama? Yes, but the committee’s job is not to be predictive, it’s to pick the four best and/or most deserving teams. If Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze knew how to run a competent defense and didn’t allow 4th & Milroe to happen, we wouldn’t be having this debate. If Kansas State’s Chris Klieman didn’t try to get cute with his playcalling against Texas, we wouldn’t be having this debate. If Jordan Travis doesn’t break his leg against North Alabama, we’re not having this debate. Just like the plotlines of Magnolia or Love Actually, there were dozens of seemingly unrelated events that had to fall perfectly in place for Florida State to miss the playoff. It sucks for FSU and the precedent the committee just set is that the games don’t matter, only perception does. Even if Georgia won, it’s not out of the question Florida State still wouldn’t have made it over Texas. At the end of the day, someone was going to get screwed here, and it was FSU. Sorry Noles, here’s a hall pass to burn down the state. Start with Daytona Beach, please.

Atlanta = Alabama Town

It was always going to come to an end. The Dawgs were not going to win every game they played forever. After 29 straight victories, an SEC Championship and two National Championships, and two entire years since our last loss, it was fitting that Alabama would be the one to dethrone us in the city where they never lose. The Tide are now 8-0 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with four of those victories coming against Georgia. It appears that we can only beat Nick Saban in the great city of Indianapolis.

It was a classic Alabama/Georgia battle in the most heartbreaking ways - Georgia was out-coached, out-played, made the crucial mistake when it absolutely couldn’t afford to, and a questionable call by the referees directly resulted in 7 Alabama points in a game Alabama won by 3. Fun fact on that questionable call - it happened on the 14 yard line of the east endzone, which is exactly where Tyler Simmons blocked that punt in the national championship game in 2017. Time is a flat circle, and it was inevitable that our run would end in this manner to that team.

After Georgia marched down the field on its first possession and took a quick 7-0 lead, Alabama switched things up defensively, switching from playing with one-high safety and more odd front looks on the first drive to playing their more base looks with two-high safeties for the rest of the game. Georgia was able to take Dallas Turner out of multiple plays on that first drive by motioning out receivers and backs into the slot, forcing Turner to go cover. Once the decision was made by Alabama to drop back into their two-high safety looks and just rush four and hope for the best, Georgia’s offense was cooked. Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers looked like shells of themselves, completely lacking the explosiveness that makes them both so great, which really limits what this Georgia offense is capable of when it comes to explosive plays. Once future first round pick Amarius Mims went down at right tackle after only 11 snaps, Georgia could no longer run the football with any sort of effectiveness either. If the offensive gameplan seemed too conservative, which I think is a fair take to a certain degree, it’s important to remember that the Dawgs were facing a defense that was actively trying not to give up explosive plays while our most explosive players were limping around the field. We were forced to take what Alabama was going to give us a lot of the time, and Alabama wasn’t giving us much to work with at all.

Defensively, while this was not a bad performance, this team needs help quickly on the defensive line, which is a take I can’t believe I’m making after the last few years of Georgia football. Alabama had less than 200 total yards well into the 4th quarter, but Jalen Milroe and Alabama’s offense were able to come up with timely plays again and again to keep the Tide ahead for the entire game. While I don’t want to sound like an Alabama fan complaining about injuries, it became clear in this game just how big of a loss Jamon Dumas-Johnson is to this defense. Our primary inside backer is the QB of the defense, and since JDJ went down we’ve been forced to play multiple true freshmen at the position who, while extremely talented, have made mental errors at times. One of those mental errors led to Alabama’s first touchdown when freshman LB Raylen Wilson completely misplayed an assignment, getting jammed up and losing his man out of the backfield immediately, leading to a wide open touchdown. Tough. The defense couldn’t come up with the stops it needed in the 4th quarter, but overall, this one was mostly lost by the offense’s ability to get anything going. It was lost by a missed field goal and a fumble deep in our own territory. It was lost because Alabama outplayed us.

We knew the streak would end. It sucks that it has ended in a way that doesn’t allow us to still have a shot at the playoff. It sucks that we won’t threepeat. It sucks that it was f*cking Alabama, again. But don’t let this current despair fool you - this is still the top program in the country, this remains the best coaching staff in the country, and the next recruiting class will be the #1 class in the country. With the expansion of the playoff, we won’t be missing the playoff again anytime soon, and this program is set up to sustain success better than any other program in America right now. It sucks, but as famous Gotham City District Attorney Harvey Dent once said, the night is always darkest before the dawn. I don’t care that Dent held a child at gunpoint just a short time after delivering that quote, because if they had showed that little Alabama kid on the video-board at MBS one more time, I might hav… nevermind. The point is, Georgia Football is not going anywhere. There will be no more questions about complacency or motivation. The talent is going to keep rolling in. We’re back to being the hunters. The 2024 Dawgs will be the best team in the country once again, and they’re going to be a pissed off group with a lot to prove. I like those odds. Go Dawgs.

Quick Hitters

On Friday, Washington left no doubt that they are the premier program in the PAC 12 after beating the heavily favored Ducks 34-31 for the second time this year. When it matters most, QB Michael Penix and OC Ryan Grubb always seem to have the right play called and executed to perfect. Washington blew a 20-3 lead to the Ducks, but timely throws to Rome Odunze & 152 rushing yards from Dillon Johnson pushed the Huskies over the top and clinched the first playoff bid for the PAC 12 since 2016 when Washington and QB Jake Browning got drilled 24-7 to Jalen Hurts and Alabama.

Washington will meet #3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl for a spot in the natty after Texas stomped Oklahoma State 49-21 on Saturday afternoon. Turns out Texas having the superior talent advantage across the board is advantageous on the football field. Definitely, someone one writer should consider next time he bets OKST +15. Pokes RB Ollie Gordon II was bottled up for 34 yards but a surprisingly decent passing day form Alan Bowman (250 yards and 3 TDs) was no match for Quinn Ewers who exploded for 452 yards and 3 TDs of his own. Props to Texas who we can officially, undeniably say is Back. (Mack is not, FWIW).

Michigan blanked Iowa 26-0 in Harbaugh’s first game back from suspension and now draws Bama in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. They’re going to need more than 147 passing yards from JJ McCarthy to beat the Tide, but in the meantime they can relish in the fact that Big 10 commish Tony Pettiti had to hand Harbaugh the conference title trophy after he suspended him.

Troy smoked App State 49-23 and Boise State killed UNLV 44-20 to win their respective conferences. Boise’s interim coach, Spencer Danielson, was given the permanent head coaching job after leading the Broncos to a 4-0 record and conference title following Andy Avalos’s dismissal last month. Some Power 5 AD with a head coaching vacancy needs to pick up the phone and give Jon Sumrall a call. In his two years at the helm, Troy has had a top-15 defense both years, two conference titles, and an overall record of 23-4. Duke & AD Nina King are going to get a good look at him when they meet in the Birmingham Bowl on December 23rd. Make the call Nina.

Holding Ourselves Accountable

OnlyRans: Last week: 1-7 - Season Record: 63-73-1

L - App State +6: lost to Troy 49-23

L/L - Tulane -3.5 & Game Total Over 46.5: lost to SMU 26-14

L/L - OKST +15 & Game Total Under 54.5: lost to Texas 49-21

W/L - Michigan -21.5 & Game Total Over 35.5: beat Iowa 26-0

L - Louisville +2.5: lost to FSU 16-6

ML Favorite Parlay of Toledo, Liberty, Michigan, & Boise State: 3-1

Now I know how Tate feels on a weekly basis because good god what a disgraceful performance. Tulane & OK State’s offensive and defensive ineptitude was a shocking development that killed any chance of me sniffing .500 on the weekend. A massive upset by Miami (OH) over Toledo sunk my ML favorites parlay (which I didn’t count in the record book) but I vow to get back to .500 or above with bowl season.

Tate’s Great Picks: Last Week: 3-4 - Season Record: 29-48-2

W/W - Iowa vs Michigan Game Total Under 35.5, Michigan -21.5: Michigan won 26-0

L - New Mexico State +10: Liberty won 49-35

W - Troy -6: Troy won 49-23

L - Oregon -9.5: Washington won 34-31

L - Tulane -3.5: SMU won 26-14

L - UGA -6: Alabama won 27-24

Michigan covering and holding Iowa scoreless was as sure of a thing as I’ve ever seen, and Troy made me some money this weekend, but outside of that these were just some terrible picks. NMSU had two straight 4th quarter possessions deep in Liberty territory end in turnovers which killed their cover, and then I picked three favorites to cover that all lost outright. That’s Tate’s Great Picks for you, folks. I’ll be here all winter!

Texts of the Week

“It is beyond my comprehension why the idiot OC at Iowa is still calling plays, he should be cleaning toilets in freshman dorms” - John Fisher

“Leave these sad rednecks out of the playoff, it will be the only thing that gives me even an ounce of joy in this dark world.” - Jack Zucker

“If I was a FSU fan and that happened, not even joking, I would commit war crimes.” -Cole Schweers

“Let’s go Iowa.” - Alex Sztejnberg

“The fact the committee didn’t even consider Wake Forest for the playoff shows that it’s a sham process.” - Jack Zucker

“Remember when fat Kirby shit his pants when he saw old decrepit Nick Saban” - Alex Sztejnberg

Hope you have a great Monday and we will talk to you again on Thursday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last two years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.