Deion Praises His Son, So We Praise Ours

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Spring games are all wrapped up while the NFL had their biggest weekend of the offseason, and somehow Deion Sanders and his children managed to be in the middle of the primary football conversations of the week. The Athletic published a story on Monday where former Colorado safety Xavier Smith said that Deion “was destroying guys’ confidence and belief in themselves.” Shedeur Sanders chimed in on Twitter, saying that he didn’t even remember Smith and that Smith had to be “very mid at best” which led to a back-and-forth that ended in Deion making fun of an Austin Peay player and tweeting the words “(My son) will be a top 5 pick. Where yo son going? Lololol I got time today. Lololol” 

We’re certainly not here to criticize everything Deion does and we definitely appreciate the buzz and fresh approach he’s brought to college coaching. But at a certain point it seems very fair to point out the Coach Prime has done essentially nothing to warrant this type of bravado as a coach - the Buffs went 4-8 last year while Deion has continued to essentially punt on recruiting at the high school level (Colorado’s 2024 class finished 73rd in the country, one spot ahead of Arkansas State), and the roster does not exactly look like the playoff team he’s publicly claiming they’re going to be. And it may be true that Shedeur ends up as a top 5 pick, but he has plenty of his game he needs to work on and we’re not entirely convinced, to say the least, that the NFL is going to be enamored with all of this. Especially if they don’t even make a bowl game (again). But hey, keep doing your thing, Sanders family. It’s great for our content.

Outside of Deion, some of our favorite college football players of the past few years are headed out into the world of the NFL and we feel like proud parents watching our five year old get on the school bus for their first day of Kindergarten, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

The NFL Draft Through a CFB Lense

Over 20 million people tuned in to watch a bunch of guys in suits walk across a stage, pose for pictures, and put on a hat. 750,000 more people, by all accounts, willingly went to downtown Detroit to watch this happen live. We haven’t spent much time in Detroit but there must not be much else to do up there except bitch about Chinese manufacturing and how cold it is. No one’s forcing you to live there. Fantastic airport though. At its core, the NFL Draft is a College Football event. We’re not here to give out draft grades or any clickbait like that. We want to look at the NFL Draft results from a college football perspective, remember some guys who have graduated from our sport, and of course, shitting on Falcons fans in the process is an added bonus.

What College Football learnings can we take away from the NFL draft?

Tate: My #1 takeaway is that lower-level (Group of 5 and FCS) football as we know it is just simply dying. There was exactly one non-Power 5 player drafted in the first round this year, a number that keeps decreasing by the year. The power of the internet eradicated the true “diamond in the rough” types of guys who were always future stars but were somehow missed in the college recruiting world and ended up at places like Georgia Southern or Marshall but ended up being NFL legends. Now, the transfer portal all but ensures that if you are playing like a future NFL player at a school like Ohio or San Jose State, you’re almost certainly going to end up transferring to a bigger school before your college career is over. 

Hell, arguably the biggest story surrounding that one non-P5 pick in this year’s first-round - Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell - was about how, as soon as he was drafted, Nick Saban essentially admitted on live television that he and his staff were illegally tampering with Mitchell to get him to enter the portal before the 2023 season. We aren’t short of things that suck about the unlimited transfer era we are currently in, but to me, the worst thing is that the days of true stars being born and staying at a smaller school are dead and gone. It genuinely makes me sad sometimes, but I’m still going to watch an unhealthy amount of Sun Belt football anyway.

Rand: The G5 and FCS draft stories might be dead but the Canadian Football League is on the rise, Tate. How easy you forget that with the last pick in the 5th round, the Jets took Qwan’tez Stiggers who won the 2023 CFL ROY year with the Toronto Argonauts. Were you too busy watching Marshall-ULM and missed the Grey Cup? Shameful. Sidenote: since when did Warren Moon, Joe Theismann, Doug Flutie, Cameron Wake, and Jeff Garcia all play in the CFL before their illustrious NFL careers? What else is Canada hiding from us?

The obvious answer that’s worth repeating is that there’s a high correlation between NFL draft picks and CFB success. In order, the teams with the most NFL draft picks were Michigan, Texas, Washington, Alabama, Florida State, and Georgia. Not surprisingly, the final AP Poll went: Michigan, Washington, Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Florida State. Correlation equals causation and don’t let any mouthbreather tell you otherwise. 

The real answer has nothing to do with the draft. Nick Saban made his broadcasting debut on ESPN and it’s not hyperbole to say he was brilliant. While sharing the College GameDay desk with Desmond Howard whose thoughts are as coherent as a wisdom tooth patient, Saban gave succinct and astute analysis throughout the broadcast. Kirk Herbstreit is decent, but he’s better in the booth and is so self-conscious of not being labeled an Ohio State homer (which he is) that his analysis is often bland and flat given Ohio State’s prominence on the show and in the national CFB landscape. During the 15 minutes I watched of the pre-draft coverage, Saban explained complex football concepts, schemes, and coaching jargon for all viewers to understand and did so naturally, which is even more impressive. The most jarring thing was the whiplash of having to go from Saban to Howard. In one segment I watched Howard say he wouldn’t be surprised if JJ McCarthy was drafted ahead of Drake Maye and McCarthy will be his pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year because he approaches the game ‘differently’ than anyone he’s seen. His cited examples were McCarthy’s pregame meditation and utilization of cold showers. I don’t need to remind you where Howard went to school right? We know ESPN and College GameDay is a completely unserious yet scripted show purposely designed for ratings and viral moments. I haven’t even mentioned Lee Corso or Pat McAfee and don’t need to because Howard is carrying my water here. However, Saban is going to be a fascinating and insightful character on our TV screens this fall.

Hot Take Time: Which player are you certain will be a bust and which player is a future HOFer?

Rand: As a closet Bears fan who had to endure the Mitch Trubisky, Jay Cutler, and Kyle Orton eras, I will in no way, shape, or form be saying a word about Caleb Williams or Rome Odunze other than I wish them the best of luck in their pro careers and look forward to rooting for them. But for future HOFers, I’m going to go off the board and pick WRs Brian Thomas Jr (LSU) and Xavier Worthy (Texas). Malik Nabers was picked 6th overall by the Giants but it’s looking like his QB this fall will be Drew Lock. Not much else I need to say about that situation. His teammate at LSU, Thomas, went 17th to the Jaguars and has a competent QB to throw him the ball. Thomas led the FBS with 17 TD receptions last year and ran the 4.33 40 while standing at 6’3 209 pounds. If I’m Trevor Lawrence and my other options are WRs named Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Zay Jones, I’m finding Thomas every time. My honorary pick of Worthy is for no other reason than he broke the combine record with a 4.21 40 and gets to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes. As for certain bust…oh that’s so mean, don’t make me write about someone who just fulfilled their lifelong dream of being an NFL draft pick. I want equality and happiness for all! Lol, who the hell am I fooling? It’s Drake Maye. 

Tate: Those who know me well know exactly who I am going to say has the biggest bust potential in this draft. JJ McCarthy spent all of 2023 being incredibly lame on one of college football’s most hated (but talented) teams in decades, all while that team hardly trusted him to do anything at all (see Rand’s notes below), and ended up as the #10 overall pick in the NFL draft. The NFL geniuses love his arm talent and athleticism despite him hardly ever showing any of it off while at Michigan, but this f*cking guy just has bust written all over him. He’s never had to win Michigan a single game, his downfield accuracy beyond the intermediate passing game is questionable, and we have never seen him operate anything close to an NFL offense. He’s headed to the Vikings to play in a division that is historically known for good defenses and brutal weather. Good luck, JJ.

The most surefire HOFer in the history of the NFL draft is none other than Georgia’s very own Brock Bowers. Do I really need to say much more? Bowers came to Georgia in 2021 and immediately started garnering buzz out of practice, started his first ever college game against Clemson, and throughout his freshman year established himself as one of the best players in the entire country, scoring a touchdown in the national championship game along the way. He absolutely dominated in 2022 where he actually was the best single player in the country, and was garnering early Heisman buzz in 2023 after single handedly beating Auburn before a high ankle sprain forced him to miss a few games. He slipped a little bit in the draft due to the QB craze that was going on, in combination with the fact that NFL front offices overthink themselves time and time again between January and April and convinced themselves that he doesn’t have elite “traits” in terms of his size. At least this guy loved him, I guess… okay then… Anyway, he catches everything that’s thrown to him, he’s very physical and strong as hell, and he’s fast as sh*t. On top of all of that, he decided to get an immediate surgery to come back from his ankle injury as soon as possible last year and spent an entire month hobbling around the field just to be out there helping his team. So many other guaranteed first rounders would’ve just checked out and got ready for the draft, but not Brock. He wanted to win. I think that’s all you really need to know about Brock Bowers - HOF here we come.

Which first-round pick did you enjoy watching the most in college?

Tate: Alright well I can’t take the easy way out and talk about Brock Bowers again here, so my answer is South Carolina’s Xavier Legette. Legette spent four years at South Carolina as essentially a no-name player, with his best season accumulating a grand total of 167 yards in 2022. But then came 2023, and my eyes absolutely lit up when I watched him obliterate North Carolina’s secondary in Week 1 for 178 yards on 9 catches. Two weeks later he was a big reason Georgia struggled with the Gamecocks for a little, a game where I got to watch him up close and personal. The very next week, when he took this drag route and burned Mississippi State’s secondary for a touchdown, I knew we had a potential first-rounder on our hands, and I’m glad to have gotten that right. His size and speed will remind you of DK Metcalf in an instant, and he is electrifying with the ball in his hands. Is he a perfectly refined route runner? No, neither is DK Metcalf. But do you know what he is? Really big and really fast. That’s awesome.

He’s also just a fantastic dude with a story that’s very easy to root for. He’s from a very small agricultural town in South Carolina, and he sure sounds like it. Legette lost both of his parents when he was in high school, but seems to have such a great perspective and positive outlook on life when you listen to him, and the more you hear about the multiple stories of him giving back to his former schools and spending long periods of time signing autographs and talking to the youth in Mullins, SC, the more you like him. This was my guy last year and I’m excited to root for him in the league.

Rand: JJ McCarthy and there’s not another option. He’s got the most fundamentally sound, cleanest, and crispest handoff this country has ever seen. If all it takes to be an NFL QB is to hand the ball off to Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards for three straight years, then I gave up on my football dreams way too soon. Remember when McCarthy handed the ball off 32 straight times in the Penn State game last year? They didn’t attempt a single pass the entire second half against the 10th-ranked team in the country and still won by two scores. 

If you force me to give you a real answer, it’s Bo Nix from Oregon. I don’t know what blackmail he has over Sean Payton and the Broncos front office to warrant a first-round pick but it must be juicy. Nix set the single-season NCAA record for completion % at 77.4%, edging out Mac Jones, Colt McCoy, Joe Burrow, and Kellen Moore. Pretty decent company, but only one of them has been worth a damn in the NFL. Probably because aside from Burrow, most of those QBs had offenses predicated on dump-off passes. Oregon under OCs Kenny Dillingham (current Arizona State head coach) and Will Stein accurately figured out that their skill positions players were probably faster than most of the defensive players for Arizona, Washington State, Cal, etc. According to PermGod Mel Kiper Jr., “His average pass traveled 6.3 yards downfield last season, which was sixth shortest among 125 qualified FBS quarterbacks.” The good news for Nix and Broncos faithful is the ball will travel an extra yard or so at Mile High. 

Who was your favorite player selected on Day 2 or 3?

Rand: I’m not going to be a homer and choose Wake S Malik Mustapha who was drafted by the 49ers, Wake CB Caelen Carson who got the call from Jerry Jones, Deacs OL Michael Jurgens who got nabbed by the Vikings, OR the Bears drafting the best punter in NCAA history Troy Taylor in the fourth round. What I am going to do is use a random number generator to pick between 33 & 257 and write about the player from whatever pick I land on. Number is…158 which is the Dolphins 5th round pick DE Mohamed Kamara from Colorado State. Holy shit I actually know this guy. I definitely would’ve cheated and spun the wheel again if I got some OG from Rutgers. I may not have morals, but I do have standards.

Kamara was the 2023 Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year after racking up 17 TFLs and T-3rd in the nation with 13 sacks. Remember the bonkers Colorado-Colorado State game that ended in 2OT and at 2 am in Week 3 last year? First, CU WR Travis Hunter was taken to the hospital after a cheap shot by a CSU safety. Then, our boy Kamara was poked in the eye - Brandon Spikes style - by Shedeur Sanders. Kamara certainly wasn’t a fan of that because in overtime he was ejected for blatant targeting on Sanders. Kamara finished the game with 2 sacks while Colorado’s porous OL made him look like Aaron Donald out there. Good for Kamara & the Dolphins, I love this pick. Also, he has an older brother named Amara who was a DL at Temple. Amara Kamara. 

Tate: As soon as the NFL’s greatest franchise (the New York Jets) drafted Western Kentucky receiver Malachi Corley, I texted my two Jets friends Jacob Marcus and Matt Sadiker that they just took my favorite player in the draft. Corley was known as the “YAC King” at WKU after the 2022 season which saw him amass nearly 1,000 yards receiving after the catch. But Corley is not just a speedster who was flying past slower players in the Group of Five - he is a uniquely physical player who does not at all shy away from contact, and routinely makes something happen out of nothing. I love this pick for the Jets who look to continue their unrivaled run of dominance in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is his quarterback - what could go wrong?

Texts of the Week

“It could be worse we could’ve drafted Mitch Trubisky 2nd overall.” - Falcons fan Jalen Miller

“The Falcons have made some of the most hilarious decisions I’ve seen ever since they tried to go after DeShaun Watson and getting rid of Matt Ryan. Not trying to sign Lamar, not drafting Jalen Carter, thinking Marcus Mariota would be a good starting QB. Watching Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke was one of the most abusive things to watch on TV. I hope Mike Penix works out but the fact we didn’t draft a player at 8 to help a QB we are paying $180 million is so absurd. At least get another receiver or Brock Bowers.” - Falcons fan (duh) Cole Schweers

“I can’t take this anymore.” - World’s #1 Atlanta Falcon fan Jason Levenstiem

“Once Kirk’s contract is over in the future, technology/medicine will have advanced enough to where Penix’s 17 ACL tears are no longer a concern and he will be biologically 7 years old.” - Alex Sztejnberg

Have a great weekend and we’ll talk to you again next Thursday.

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Rand Fisher & Tate Smillie met a few years ago through their good buddy Dave Peljovich who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent two years of the last three years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Atlanta but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.