Chapel Bill is Back...is Anyone Excited?

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Welcome back, 4th and Forever fans. The season starts this weekend and before we get
to that we need to inform you of a few changes here at 4&F. First of all, I’m not Rand or
Tate. Rand is pursuing his lifelong dream of going around the country to catch a WNBA
game in each team’s arena and blogging about it, and Tate is married, so they are both
pinched for time right now. The changes are probably only temporary, or maybe not, but
on with the show.

I’m Rand’s dad, and for simplicity’s sake, call me Ishmael. The offseason was quite
eventful, but at the end of the day, who really cares? Nothing matters until game day,
the rest is just white noise in the increasingly chaotic world of college football.

North Carolina vs. TCU in Dublin (TCU -8.5, O/U 47.5)
Just a reminder, TCU went 9-4 last year and ended honeymoon for Belichick at
Carolina with a 48-14 beatdown in week 1 last year, that really wasn’t even that close.
Sure, there’s lots of roster and coaching staff turnover with every team in the offseason,
but it’s usually not as bad as it has been in Chapel Hill. The defensive coordinator,
coach’s son, presumed heir apparent, and man bun wearing dandy is taking a medical
leave of absence. General Manager Mike Lombardi, who brashly proclaimed UNC
would resemble the “33 rd NFL team” was actually right, they do look a lot like Cleveland
right now. Alas, he’s on administrative leave pending an HR investigation. The offensive
coordinator was fired after the season, which was the right thing to do given that the
only time they topped 27 points last season was against Richmond. The starting QB
transferred to Wake Forest to be reunited with his former OC from South Alabama, who
is credited with putting him on the map to begin with. The former 4 star QB in waiting
collected $1M to sit the bench last year, then promptly transferred to Virginia Tech. And
the schedule is a lot tougher than last year, with road games at Clemson and Virginia,
and Notre Dame, Miami and Louisville all coming to Chapel Hill. GDTBATH!!
*editor’s note – there may be some contributing writers this season who are Carolina
graduates, so please tolerate their inane blather, they will likely appeal to the significant
portion of the subscriber base that is currently in federal or state custody
TCU returns a fair number of starters, is picked to finish in the top half of a surprisingly
deep Big 12, and isn’t the least bit concerned about facing the Tarheels again. Carolina
may end up having a better team than they did last year, but until they demonstrate it on
the field, bet against them.

NC State @ Virginia (UVA -4, O/U 52.5)

This game was originally scheduled to be played in . . . Brazil, to appeal to the
screaming hordes of UVA fans in the favelas of Rio, but that was scratched after the
UVA players complained after they were told there would be no bidets at the team hotel
or in the locker room and the whole country smelled like Bourbon Street on Ash
Wednesday. Both teams are projected to finish in the 2 nd tier of the ACC, which is not
bad, but both teams also have a long history of underachieving, so neither fanbase or
Vegas feels particularly confident in looking at this game. When in doubt, go with the
team with the best QB, and that’s C.J. Bailey at NC State, although Beau Pribula at UVA
has talent and could have a big year as well.

There are a handful of other games on this weekend; Southern Cal, Stanford and FSU
all play mid-major opponents. FSU and USC are both favored by 30+, Stanford is
favored by 4 over Hawaii. Check those games to see if there are any surprises.

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Rand & Tate’s Note: The following is a guest article from family friend, Ed Hanes, who has been featured on this blog before. One of those friends is Ed Hanes, who is a double-Heel with an undergraduate and law degree, and is a diehard for Carolina athletics.

Dublin Is Not About Redemption. It’s About Proof..Bill!!!.

Well, well, well....we meet again.  Last year Rand held my story until well after my trouncing of his position would be noticed.  This year, he sends his daddy in to ask for a favor on his behalf.  He sent his DADDDDDDYYYYY. 

Fine.

The bigger Fisher has already rendered his verdict on North Carolina football.  

The case is entertaining, occasionally cheap, and not entirely wrong. TCU embarrassed Carolina 48-14 in Bill Belichick’s college debut last September, outgaining the Tar Heels 542-222 and rushing for 258 yards. Unfortunately, I was in the stands with Fisher, having actually given him one of my premium viewing platforms in beautiful Kenan Stadium (endzone, close to the exit, back to Franklin Street and in my car 15 minutes after the last play.  Beating everyone to I-40.) 

UNC finished 4-8.  Michael Lombardi’s boast that Carolina intended to operate like football’s “33rd NFL team” aged badly enough before the general manager was placed on paid administrative leave this summer amid a university investigation. Defensive coordinator Steve Belichick is now on indefinite medical leave and is a Dublin no show.

So Fisher gets to spike the football....just not yet.

What happens Saturday in Ireland is interesting precisely because nearly every argument against Carolina is valid.  The outcome is also intriguing because there are legitimate reasons to wonder whether this version of UNC is considerably better than the one TCU disassembled.

TCU deserves to be favored. The Horned Frogs followed that Chapel Hill demolition with a 9-4 season.  The betting market has moved accordingly: Carolina opened around a touchdown underdog and is now getting roughly 8½ points.

But this isn’t quite the same TCU team, either.

Harvard transfer Jaden Craig is the presumed starter at QB after throwing for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns last season.  Gordon Sammis is replacing Kendal Briles as offensive coordinator. TCU may be good again. It simply isn’t entitled to inherit last September’s 34-point margin.

And Carolina finally has something it conspicuously lacked a year ago: an accomplished college offensive coach.

Out with Kitchens and in with Bobby Petrino, whose resume includes 137 victories as a college head and productive offense everywhere he's been.  Wake/Maryland/Wisconsin  transfer Billy Edwards Jr. will start at quarterback.  Jordan Shipp returns at WR and defensive lineman Melkart Abou Jaoude returns after producing 10.5 sacks and earning national attention and major NIL offers.  He stayed put, and UNC brought in the nation’s No. 12-ranked signing class (signing 40 freshmen).

Carolina does not deserve respect yet.  They may have acquired enough talent (and coaching growth) that it should now be capable of earning it.

And therein lies the problem for Belichick.

The girlfriend stories? Old news. The novelty of the hoodie in Chapel Hill? Gone. The NFL rings? Irrelevant come Saturday.

Against TCU, Belichick himself admitted Carolina had been “outplayed” and “outcoached.”  Now his defensive coordinator is absent. His general manager is sidelined. And Belichick reportedly has taken a greater role preparing the defense himself. There are no organizational buffers left.

Perfect.

Because Saturday should be about football.

Carolina does not have to win.  But the Heels can't look confused.  They can't get pushed around. They can't surrender 41 unanswered points and spend another national television window looking like they don't belong.

The school is too good for that.  The coach is too good for that.

Give us four quarters of competence, Tar Heels!  Run the football. Protect Edwards. Make Craig uncomfortable. Let Petrino demonstrate that Carolina now has an offensive identity.  Make TCU earn 30 points instead of gifting them 48.

Fisher says bet against Carolina until Carolina proves otherwise.

On that point, regrettably, we agree.

My pick: TCU 27, North Carolina 20.

But I’m taking the Tar Heels plus 8½.

Call it skepticism with a pulse.

Show me, Carolina!!!

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Thanks for reading 4th & Forever. Feel free to forward this to friends & family and if you have comments or suggestions on the newsletter, please let us know. We really appreciate any and all feedback on this endeavor. Check out our website by going to 4thandforevercfb.com where you can drop us suggestions, read and comment on previous newsletters, and argue with us and other readers.

Rand & Tate met a few years ago through a mutual friend who went to college with Rand and high school with Tate. Tate went to Georgia and has spent the last few years collecting championship rings while traveling to watch the Dawgs. Rand went to known CFB powerhouse Wake Forest and currently pays rent in Charlotte, but is rarely found there with all the work & CFB travel he does.