Fat Coaches, Adultery, & Banger Games - The SEC Preview

Good morning and welcome to 4th & Forever, Rand & Tate’s College Football Newsletter. Beehiiv is telling us this newsletter is already too long to fit into an email, so we’ll keep this short and sweet - today we’re previewing the greatest conference in all the land, the SEC. Rand is still gallivanting around the Big West, so you’re largely stuck with Tate again (with one important exception). Enjoy!

Tier 1: Playoff of Bust

Alabama Crimson Tide

Coach: Kalen Deboer comes in from Washington to replace the greatest football coach in history, as we all know. Deboer is unquestionably one of the best coaches in the sport as a schemer, teacher, and in-game operator, but given his career path thus far is filled with very brief stops at schools in the Pacific Northwest, his recruiting acumen is very much still in question. Alabama fans will have little-to-no patience for anything resembling a rebuild, so the pressure is on in year one.

Quarterback: Jalen Milroe returns for his second year as the starter, and there are few players in the country with as wide of a range of expectations as Milroe has in 2024. His 2023 campaign was wide-ranging itself, seeing him struggle mightily in a loss against Texas and get benched the next week against USF, before returning as the starter and slowly performing better and better, winning the SEC and getting Bama to the Playoff, before once again struggling mightily against Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Deboer’s offenses in recent years have been largely built around the intermediate and hash-to-hash passing game with remarkably accurate quarterbacks (see: Michael Penix Jr. at Washington and Jake Haener at Fresno State). That is, to put it lightly, not who Jalen Milroe is. With that said, Deboer’s past also includes very mobile quarterbacks who Deboer did not shy away from letting run around. Milroe could either get benched by November or win the Heisman - he’s the hardest player in the country to predict this season.

Schedule analysis: A Week 3 trip to Wisconsin is interesting, but the Tide should roll past a much less-talented Badger squad. SEC play kicks off in the biggest way possible, though, with UGA coming to town on September 28th. A road game against Tennessee may be a classic like it was last time, and that’s followed by a tough home game against Missouri and then a road trip to Baton Rouge. Avoiding Texas is nice, but this is a tough schedule for a first-year coach to navigate anywhere, let alone the first-year head coach that’s following Nick Saban at Alabama.

Glass Half Full: Deboer is as elite of an offensive coach as anybody in the sport of football and, even with some key losses from last year’s team, has a plethora of talent to play around with. As mentioned above, Milroe may not fit the mold of recent Deboer quarterbacks but he does have other-worldly athletic ability that Deboer is experienced in taking advantage of. Bama has a multitude of talented running backs to hand the ball off to, including former five-stars Justice Haynes and Richard Young, and the talk around Tuscaloosa is that receiver Kendrick Law is primed for a breakout. Kobe Prentice returns at receiver too, and the Tide also brought in five-star WR Ryan Williams who is expected to play a big role in the passing game as well. The offensive line looks like it could be dominant, with Left Tackle Kadyn Proctor returning after randomly spending the spring at Iowa, and Left Guard Tyler Booker likely being the first guard taken in next year’s draft. The defense also returns a few key guys, especially up front with Jeheim Oatis, Tim Keenan, Quandarrius Robinson, and Deonte Lawson all opting to stay and play for Deboer.

Glass Half Empty: The defense as an overall unit, though, is certainly a question mark after being somewhat leaky over the past few seasons and seeing several guys leave for the NFL - plus Caleb Downs leaving for Ohio State - without clearcut studs replacing them. The secondary in particular is of major concern, with a lot of unproven guys and/or guys who haven’t quite taken the next step being heavily relied upon this year. They’ll probably be able to get away with that if Milroe has improved as a passer and can put points on the board at will, but that is… still a question, to say the least. If Milroe is still limited in his ability to carve defenses up in the short and intermediate game, especially with inexperienced and unproven receivers, Bama could be a team that gives up a good amount of points due to their lackluster secondary and can’t score points due to their lackluster passing game. Only time will tell, but the pressure will be on this team and this staff starting Week 1.

Texas Longhorns

Coach: Former drunk maniac Steve Sarkisian enters his fourth season in Austin and it’s safe to say things have trended in a positive direction thus far. Sark went 5-7 in his first year, 8-5 in his second year, and 12-2 in his third with a Big 12 Championship and a College Football Playoff appearance. He’s recruited at an elite level the entire time and returns a lot of talent as Texas heads into their first year in the SEC. Alabama almost certainly gave Sark a call in the wake of Nick Saban’s retirement, but things have gone so swimmingly at UT so far that Sark seems to think he’s better positioned for long term success in Austin.

Quarterback: Quinn Ewers returns for his third season as the Longhorns’ starter and looks to finally, fully live up the hype he had coming out of high school. Ewers was a 5-star, “generational” type of talent according to the recruiting industry experts, and while he’s been good he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire quite yet, and has missed multiple games in back-to-back seasons due to injury. Thankfully Texas has rising Sophomore Arch Manning backing him up this season. Manning, who not many people know is actually the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning, was a 5-star, generational type of talent coming out of high school himself, so things seem pretty rock solid at QB in Austin.

Schedule analysis: Texas travels to Ann Arbor to play defending national champion Michigan in one of the year’s most anticipated games in Week 2, but the rest of the September schedule is a breeze. The Longhorns get a bye before the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma in Week 7 which is immediately followed by a visit from Georgia in Week 8. Texas should beat everybody else on the schedule until they hit 4th & Forever’s most anticipated game of the 2024 season - the return of their rivalry game against Texas A&M, at Kyle Field in College Station on the Saturday after Thanksgiving with playoff implications on the line. Inject that straight into my veins.

Glass Half Full: Ewers returning is huge for a team that will be replacing some talented wide receivers, and having Arch to back him up alleviates a ton of the injury concerns that surround Ewers. Running Back CJ Baxter is a certified stud, and he’ll be running behind a potentially elite offensive line headlined by future top-ten pick Kelvin Banks at Left Tackle. Receivers AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy are off to the NFL, but former 5-star Johntay Cook is primed for a breakout with Houston transfer Matthew Golden and Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond stretching defenses outside of him and fellow Bama transfer TE Amari Niblack commanding attention in the middle. The offense has the potential to be really good, and the defense returns some very talented players like Anthony Hill at linebacker and Malik Muhammad at corner.

Glass Half Empty: Even with a couple of those key defenders back, the defense seems to be the concern headed into 2024, primarily in the defensive backfield outside of Muhammad, where the Longhorns don’t seem to have a clearcut pecking order and brought in several transfers to try to figure it out. That’s a dangerous game considering the QB talent that the Horns will be facing this year. Replacing Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat up front is a major concern as well, and it’s highly doubtful that Texas currently has anybody on the roster that can replicate what those two guys were able to do on the interior. Two-time All-Big 12 linebacker Jaylan Ford is gone, too. The 2023 defense was good but not great, and was largely the reason they lost both to Oklahoma in the regular season and Washington in the playoff. Losing as much talent off of that group as Texas did makes us hesitant to predict that Texas is going to be able to consistently stop the great offenses they’ll be facing all season.

Ole Miss Rebels

Coach: Joey Freshwater (sometimes referred to as Lane Kiffin) enters his 5th year in Oxford where he’s gone 29-10 over the past four seasons which included the Rebels’ first ever eleven-win season last year in 2023. He’s dubbed himself the “Portal King” in recent years due to his relentless pursuit of bringing Ole Miss’s level of talent up to par with the league’s best programs, and he seems to hit his grand slam in the portal this offseason. He returns a ton of talent from last year’s squad as well, and has Ole Miss football considered a top-ten team headed into a season for the first time in forever.

Quarterback: Jaxson Dart is back for another year and we fully anticipate him lighting it up once again. He’s thrown for 6,400 yards and 43 TD’s so far in his time in Oxford, and he’s quick and tough on the ground too, having rushed for nearly 1,000 more yards and 9 TD’s as a Reb as well. He has an abundance of talent to get the ball to this season and he just may play himself into being a high NFL Draft pick next April. 

Schedule analysis: Despite having to travel to Winston-Salem in Week 3 to take on the vaunted Demon Deacons, I’m pretty sure this team is going to be 6-0 headed into their massive game against LSU in Baton Rouge on October 12th. Games against Oklahoma and Georgia will be very tough in late October and early November respectively, but both come at home and the Rebs manage to avoid Bama, Texas, Missouri, Tennessee, and even Texas A&M. That’s about as easy as you’re going to get an SEC schedule from here on out.

Glass Half Full: Kiffin absolutely crushed it in the portal this offseason, bringing in future NFL DL’s Walter Nolan (the #1 player in the portal) from A&M and Princely Umanmielan from Florida, as well as stud WR Juice Wells from SoCar. Dart and the offense are going to put up points once again, and the defense looks like it may finally be able to compete with the big boys in the league.

Glass Half Empty: Even with the portal additions, depth is still a concern on the OL and DL, which is of the utmost importance in the new SEC and 12-team playoff format. There are studs throughout the starting lineup on O and D, but if the injury bug comes for the Rebs this year, there isn’t a plethora of talent on the bench to fill in.

Georgia Bulldogs (Author: Rand)

Coach: Kirby Smart who may be (read: is) fat, couldn’t make a roster in the NFL despite being an All-SEC DB, and may have a pig in Montana named after him courtesy of 4&F (more on that later), but damn can this guy coach football. Smart has a 94-16 record since 2016 and 31% of those losses came in his first year. This man hasn’t lost more than three games since and has a combined 2 losses in the past three years.

Quarterback: Let’s list off the first names of former Georgia QB’s and see if you can guess the theme: Aaron, Jake, Stetson, Matthew, JT, Jacob, Greyson, Hutson, Joe, and now Carson. Georgia fans, don’t come at me with D’Wan (Mathis), Jamie (Newman), or Justin (Fields) because their combined passing stats are what Beck is going to put up in the first half against UT Martin or whatever. I will happily concede DJ Shockley and that's about it. Point is, Carson Beck is the next great QB for UGA football and will be a top 10 if not the #1 overall pick next April. He's a front-runner for the Heisman and has lived up to his billing as Stetson's replacement minus not winning a natty yet.

Schedule analysis: You know the overused joke when people make fun of their rival team and say "I couldn't give those tickets away to a homeless guy" or whatever, well that's Georgia's home schedule. Tennessee Tech, Auburn, Mississippi State, UMass, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech. Their road schedule on the other hand gives me Herschel Walker level CTE just thinking about it. Texas, Bama, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and neutral games against Clemson and Florida.

Glass Half Full: Go re-read Kirby's coaching record. Name a better returning QB in the SEC over Carson Beck. You could convince me of Quinn Ewers at Texas and that's about it. It's entirely possible Arnold, Iamaleava, or Milton outperform him by the season's end but this is a preview and not a prediction. You win a national championship these days with a star QB and defense and Georgia undoubtedly has both...

Glass Half Empty: ...which I also heard last year and resulted in a pity Orange Bowl invite and courtesy stomping of FSU's walk-on squad. Saban is out but Texas and Oklahoma are in. That road schedule is hellacious but there's a 0% chance (yes, I'll take a bet) Georgia is not in the 12-team playoff. The question is do they have the receivers and coaching to win 3 games in a row in a playoff? I think yes but Kirby and anyone not named Ladd McConkey have failed me and our readers before.

Tier 2: Dark Horses

Missouri Tigers

Coach: The Alpha Nerd Eli Drinkwitz escaped a somewhat-hot seat headed into the 2023 season by going 11-2 and beating Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, and now has his Tigers seemingly primed for another big season with a significant amount of talent and production returning. Drink went 5-5 in the fake COVID year and 6-7 in both 2021 and 2022 before last year’s breakthrough.

Quarterback: Brady Cook is back for his third year as the full time starter, and much like the rest of his team, his 2023 campaign took him from “aggressively mediocre” to “honestly he’s pretty good” in fast order. He threw for over 3,300 yards last year with 21 touchdowns, and while he wasn’t (nor will be) the most talented guy on his offense by any metric, he’s smart with the football and accurate, which is seemingly all Mizzou needs from him with the weapons they’ve been able to put around him.

Schedule analysis: The September is an absolute joke that will see them start 4-0 before a bye, and that bye precedes the only tough game for the next few weeks on the road vs. A&M. If the Tigers manage to come out of College Station unscathed, there is a very real chance we’re looking at a 7-0, potentially top-5 ranked Missouri team headed into Bryant-Denny to take on Alabama in late October. Even then the schedule doesn’t get much harder, with likely just one more truly tough game coming at home against Oklahoma. If you’re not ready for Missouri-to-the-playoff discussions happening within the next few months, then you better get ready. This schedule is a cakewalk by SEC standards.

Glass Half Full: On top of the schedule and the veteran QB, Missouri brings back one of the country’s most talented receivers in Luther Burden III for Cook to throw to. Burden is absolutely dynamic both before and after catching the ball and is an absolute headache for teams to gameplan against. Defenses have to key on him as much as possible, which we’ve seen open up other receivers (such as the very talented Theo Wease, who also returns) as well as the running game over the past couple of years. The defense returns a good amount of talent after really thriving late last year, giving up 14 or fewer points in four of its last six games, and they also bring in 5-star freak of nature Williams Nwaneri to rush the passer.

Glass Half Empty: Simply put, the depth and amount of top-end talent likely isn’t quite there to fully contend as an SEC Championship threat. The Tigers heavily relied upon running back Cody Schrader last year who is now gone to the NFL, as is All-SEC Left Tackle Javon Foster. The defense lost several key guys, losing three of their top four tacklers and three defensive backs who are off to the NFL. Darius Robinson, Mizzou’s best defensive player last year, is gone too as the #27 pick in last year’s draft. There aren’t any glaring holes to nitpick about this team, Mizzou just doesn’t have the depth of talent to immediately replace all of those guys and simultaneously improve into competing with the Alabama’s and Georgia’s of the league.

LSU Tigers

Coach: The very cool, very southern, and barely obese Brian Kelly enters his third season in Baton Rouge after a decade of winning 10 games at Notre Dame, and while he did win the SEC West in his first year in 2022, there are those at LSU who still wonder if hiring him was the best call. LSU has been good but not great under Kelly thus far, which was exactly what he was at Notre Dame, and there has been questionable decision making on the defensive side in terms of coaching hires, schematics, and personnel decisions. The three previous LSU head coaches all won a national title, so the expectations are high by default for the Tigers. The jury is still out on if Kelly can be the next to get it done.

Quarterback: Garrett Nussmeier, who is a name you probably don’t know right now, but will very soon. He’s entering his fourth season at LSU but his first as a starter - much like Carson Beck did last year at Georgia - and he’s been very effective over the past couple of years when Jayden Daniels would briefly miss time with injury. He’s big with a really strong arm and will have a ton of receiving talent to throw to.

Schedule analysis: Things kick off with a bang in Vegas as the Tigers will take on USC in Week 1, a game that might see both teams score 70 points. Weirdly, LSU is playing the other LA Big Ten team as UCLA comes to town in Week 3. The SEC schedule isn’t loaded with all of the best teams by any means, but is tricky in spots. LSU has to travel to South Carolina to open up SEC play, there’s a massive home game with playoff implications against Ole Miss in early October, which is followed by road trips to Arkansas and Texas A&M, the latter of which will be very tough. Alabama comes to town the first Saturday of November, and LSU has to travel down to the Swamp the next week before closing the season at home against Oklahoma. UGA and Texas aren’t on the slate which is nice, but there are tough home games and tricky road games all season long for the Tigers.

Glass Half Full: The offense. We’ve already seen that Nussmeier can get the job done at QB, and even after losing two first round receivers from last year, he’ll have a ton of talented receivers to throw to headlined by Kyren Lacy, who is likely the next LSU draft pick to be drafted very high. The running backs are solid and the offensive line has the potential to be very good, led by potential top-5 draft pick Left Tackle Will Campbell.

Glass Half Empty: The defense. It was so incredibly horrible last year that Jayden Daniels’ Heisman-winning season will forever be undervalued because of the losses LSU’s defense simply handed other teams. The secondary was absolutely dreadful and there don’t seem to be high hopes that it’ll be much better, the defensive line had talent last year but still sucked, and now a lot of that talent is gone. Harold Perkins is back but LSU seemingly still has no earthly idea what to do with him positionally. The offense is going to light it up once again, but it seems like the defense is going to get lit up yet again. We saw last year how heavily that will limit LSU’s ability to contend for an SEC or national championship.

Tennessee Volunteers

Coach: Josh Heupel, who is moderately fat, returns for his fourth season in Knoxville to continue a successful tenure thus far. Tennessee hired him after he won a bunch of games over a few seasons at UCF, and after a 7-6 first year in 2021, he took the Vols to an 11-2 record in 2022 including an Orange Bowl victory and a #1 overall ranking at one point in November. The Vols dropped off a bit to 9-4 last season after losing a ton of talent from that 2022 team, but the vibes are still very high for Heupel’s Vols in Knoxville.

Quarterback: Former 5-star recruit and very rich man Nico Iamaleava takes over as the starter after backing up Joe Milton in his freshman season last year, and the hype for this young man could not be greater. We haven’t gotten to see much of him yet, but he’s 6’6 and now bulked up to 215, he has a rocket arm that’s also very accurate, and he’s slippery in the pocket for a guy his size. He has the potential to be one of the league’s best quarterbacks immediately, and if he performs, could very well be a top-ten pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. 

Schedule analysis: A Week 2 out of conference game against NC State in Charlotte (yes, the Mayonnaise Game) won’t be a breeze, but it’s a game Tennessee should and probably will win. The SEC slate isn’t the hardest but isn’t the easiest, as UTK avoids Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, A&M, and LSU, but games at Oklahoma and at Georgia will be extremely tough, and the home game against Alabama seems like the toss-up of all toss-ups. 9-3 probably won’t be good enough to sneak into the playoffs with this relatively light schedule, so the Vols will need to find a way to pull off a big win or two when they have the opportunity to do so.

Glass Half Full: The buzz around Tennessee is that Nico is the real deal and ready to compete with the big boys, and Josh Heupel’s offense will create tons of open looks for him to throw to some very talented receivers, like the returning Bru McCoy, Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton Jr., and 5-star freshman Mike Matthews. The offensive line is shaping up to be pretty good, returning three starters including really good Left Tackle Lance Heard, and the running backs in Heupel’s system always have space to run. The offense is hardly ever a concern with Heupel, it’s the defense that you need to be worried about, but that may be less of a concern this season, too. Tennessee’s defensive line is one of the three best DL units in the league, highlighted by James Pearce Jr., a likely top-ten draft pick coming off the edge. If Tennessee can score points and shore up what has been a leaky defense at times in recent years, this could be a really dangerous team to deal with.

Glass Half Empty: The biggest concern is the secondary, which in all honesty might be pretty bad this year. The Vols lost ten defensive backs from last year’s team and there is currently not a clearcut starter at basically any position in the defensive backfield. This could be catastrophic considering some of the quarterbacks and receivers the Vols are scheduled to play and it could heavily limit much of the looks and actions that the Vols’ talented defensive line should be able to do. Offensively, relying on an inexperienced quarterback to perform week in and week out is never a sure thing, and as talented as a couple of those receivers are, they themselves are unproven, too. This is the best top-to-bottom roster Heupel has had at Tennessee, but the hole in the secondary and the inexperience at key positions offensively may limit Tennessee’s ceiling this year.

Texas A&M Aggies

Coach: Mike Elko comes in from Duke to replace legendary dumbass Jimbo Fisher, who, relative to the talent on his teams, underperformed possibly more than anybody ever has in this league. Elko was Jimbo’s defensive coordinator before taking the head coaching job at Duke, where he saw immediate and relatively unprecedented success in 2022 and 2023. He’s a hard nosed coach, a true Football Guy, who will likely be the antithesis of Jimbo in most ways. If it seems like you’re not hearing as much unfounded A&M hype as you normally do in the offseason, that’s the reason why. We’re high on Elko working out at A&M.

Quarterback: Conner Weigman is back after an injury ended his 2023 season pretty early, but he’s looked like a guy with quite a lot of potential when he’s been on the field. Weigman backed up Max Johnson for the first half of the 2022 season, but really shined in October and November when he took over. He has a strong and accurate arm and is fluid and mobile in the pocket.

Schedule analysis: A&M’s schedule is possibly the most interesting in the country to me given the 12-team playoff world we’re now in, and it’s the reason we have them here in the Dark Horses section rather than the tier that follows. The season kicks off at home against Notre Dame in Week 1, a likely top-ten team to start the year. Vegas currently has this game as essentially a pick-em - if Texas A&M wins this game they’ll immediately have a top-ten win on their resume, and from there they have a pretty long runway to get better. A Week 3 visit to Florida will be tough, but A&M is a better team than UF and if they beat Notre Dame that likely means they’re pretty damn good in general. That’s sandwiched between auto-wins against McNeese and Bowling Green, and then the Aggies should get another W against a likely bad Arkansas team. There is a very real scenario where Texas A&M is 5-0 with a top-ten win when another possible top-ten team, Missouri, comes to Kyle Field in early October. Is Missouri better than Texas A&M this year? Maybe, but they’re far from unbeatable and Kyle Field is certainly not easy on visiting teams. Am I getting too ahead of myself to say this team might be 6-0 headed into a bye with two top-ten wins on their resume? Outside of the LSU game (which is also at Kyle Field as a note), the rest of the games are against Mississippi State, South Carolina, New Mexico State, and Auburn, before the most anticipated game of the season: the return of the Texas/Texas A&M rivalry on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, where ticket prices are likely to be in the thousands just to get in the door. By the way, that game is also at Kyle Field! What the hell? We’re not claiming A&M is going 12-0 or anything like that, but there are multiple opportunities to beat highly ranked teams and all of them are at home. If there’s one team in the country I could tell people to watch out for as a playoff sleeper, it’s this one.

Glass Half Full: I’ll largely just point you to the schedule section above for the “Glass Half Full” outlook, but I’d like to point another thing out: this is the best defensive line in the SEC. Mike Elko was able to hold onto star players Shemar Turner (DT), Shemar Stewart (DE), and Albert Regis (NT), who they can rotate with former 5-star Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy. They also brought in EDGE/DE Nic Scourton from Purdue, easily one of the best players in the transfer portal and a potential high draft pick. This unit is going to be absolutely nasty, and while the secondary that’s backing them up isn’t as talented as it was at times under Jimbo, it’s filled with experience at every spot. This defense is going to give Georgia’s a run for its money as the best defense in the SEC.

Glass Half Empty: While the defense may be elite, the offense has major question marks at seemingly every spot. Weigman is a good quarterback but has battled injuries, the running back room doesn’t seem to have a stud in it, and star wide receiver Evan Stewart transferred to Oregon in the offseason, leaving that room without a clear leader or go-to guy for Weigman. The offensive line is pretty young as well, and the potential of injury there is worrisome as depth is a question. All of those potential big home games we talked about above? You actually have to score points to beat those teams, and Texas A&M’s ability to do so consistently this year is a huge question mark at this point.

Oklahoma Sooners

Coach: Legendary Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables took over after Lincoln Riley shocked the world by leaving for USC after the 2022 season. Venables went 6-7 in his first year in Norman which was relatively forgivable given the mass exodus of players that left when Riley did, but his year two saw Oklahoma shoot up to a 10-2 regular season record which included a win over rival and eventual playoff team Texas. Venables has recruited pretty well, especially on the defensive side of the ball which Riley never did, and has things trending in a positive direction as the Sooners walk into the SEC.

Quarterback: Former 5-star Jackson Arnold takes over for Dillon Gabriel who left for Oregon, which likely happened because the OU staff didn’t want to risk losing Arnold. It isn’t often that I’m as high on a young quarterback as I am on Arnold - he was the talk of last season’s fall camp despite everybody knowing Gabriel was the starter, and in his first action in relief duty in Week 1 of 2023, he went 11/11 for 114 yards and a TD while rushing for another 39 yards and another TD. He has a strong and accurate arm, all reports indicate he has a high football IQ and understands coverages better than most his age, and he’s dangerous on the ground when he takes off and runs. We absolutely love this kid and can’t wait to finally see him start.

Schedule analysis: The Sooners should go 4-0 in out of conference play, but they got a pretty tough bid from the SEC in their first year in the league. Oklahoma hosts Tennessee to kick off SEC play before traveling to Auburn which is never easy, and then it’s the Red River Rivalry against Texas. The next few weeks include road games at both Ole Miss and Missouri, and SEC play concludes with a visit from Alabama before a road trip to LSU. Pretty tough - the schedule alone might make Oklahoma’s win/loss record worsen from last year, even if the team is better.

Glass Half Full: It’s our belief that the Sooners might quietly have one of the league’s top quarterbacks in Arnold, and he’ll get to throw to talented receivers like veterans Nic Anderson and Jalil Farooq, as well as talented Purdue transfer Deion Burks who shined in the Big Ten last year. The running backs aren’t world class but they are solid, and if Arnold and his receivers are beating teams downfield, the running game will open up for not only the backs, but for Arnold as a runner himself as well. As mentioned, Venables has also been recruiting well on the defensive side too - former five-star Sophomore DE/EDGE Adepoju Adebawore is expected to take a step up, and five-star Freshman DT David Stone will be able to spell a very experienced and veteran defensive line. Stopping the run and getting to the quarterback is of the utmost importance in the SEC, and Oklahoma has the pieces to do both at a higher rate than they ever did in the Big 12 under Riley.

Glass Half Empty: With all of that said, the defense is still unproven in terms of actual on-field results, and relying on young players is not exactly the greatest recipe for success in this league. The secondary is experienced but lacks top-end talent, and they’re going to be facing some elite offenses and QBs on their schedule. The main concern with this team comes from the offensive line who may be replacing all five starters from a really good 2022 unit, and while they did bring in a good Center from SMU in Branson Hickman, that is… not where you want to be as you enter the SEC. It sounds like nobody outside of Hickman has locked down a starting job which is somewhat expected given the attrition, but also highly concerning with only a month left before kickoff. If the OL isn’t sorted out and operating fluidly sooner rather than later, it’s going to get demolished by SEC defensive lines and potentially spoil an otherwise solid team.

Tier 3: You better make the Las Vegas Bowl…at a minimum

Kentucky Wildcats

Coach: Mark Stoops is somehow the longest-tenured coach in the SEC after Nick Saban’s retirement, and he may just have the best job in the world given that he’s making $9M per year at a school that is perfectly fine with him going 7-5 most years. Stoops has been great for Kentucky though, taking a program that had been pretty terrible for thirty years into a physical team that is tough for their opponents to beat year in and year out. Nothing different is expected as he enters his 12th season at Kentucky this fall.

Quarterback: Arguably the one reason Kentucky hasn’t been able to next step in the now-defunct SEC East is the lack of a quarterback that can push the ball downfield and win them games when they’ve needed points. Will Levis was good but ended up playing behind the worst Kentucky offensive line in a decade, and Devin Leary was the epitome of a Kentucky QB. Enter UGA transfer Brock Vandagriff, a former 5-star with years of experience practicing against the best defense in the country every day. Brock has a huge arm and is a more than capable athlete who can beat you with his legs when needed. His release is a bit slow and clunky and it’s still questionable whether he’s enough of a reader of the field to consistently beat good defenses, but outside of Levis, Kentucky has not had a quarterback with this much talent in decades.

Schedule analysis: Kentucky continues their yearly tradition of playing aggressively average G5 teams in their out of conference schedule in addition to their Thanksgiving weekend rivalry against Louisville, so we can mark off three wins there. SEC play opens with back-to-back home games against South Carolina in Week 2 and Georgia in Week 3. The Georgia game is almost assuredly a loss, but a win against South Carolina seems very doable and would kick things off the right way. A road game against Ole Miss closes out the September slate which will be very tough as well. October is winnable with games against Vanderbilt, Florida, and Auburn on the docket, but the final two SEC games come at Tennessee and at Texas. 

One reason to watch this team: This will be your classic Kentucky team - tough defensively, extremely disciplined and well-coached, with the intent to establish the run and wear teams down for four quarters. But as mentioned about Vandagriff, there is potential for Kentucky to have a dynamic passing game in a way that they haven’t truly had under Stoops. Vandagriff has the ability to make just about every throw there is, and he’ll get to throw the ball to Barrion Brown, the best receiver in recent Kentucky memory, as well as returning Junior Dane Key who is likely a Sunday player as well. For years the offense has needed just a little bit more from the passing game to be a true threat to the better teams in this league, and they might just finally have that this year. Look out for Deon Walker as well, he’s a future first round pick on the defensive line and an absolute beast.

Auburn Tigers

Coach: Hugh Freeze is back for his second season on the Plains and while he may be a habitually lying narcissist that weaponizes his religious identity against people (he also got caught calling hookers on a school-issued phone at Ole Miss, though thankfully the Lord has Forgiven him), he seems to be doing a pretty good job thus far. He was hired when Saban was still at Alabama because he managed to pull off back-to-back victories over the Tide while he was at Ole Miss, he’s been recruiting very well so far and his first-year squad took both Georgia and Alabama down to the wire last year. Here’s the thing though: he also got blown out by New Mexico State late last year. That is the Hugh Freeze experience - getting up for big games and absolutely no-showing against lesser opponents. Everybody remembers those upsets over Bama in 2014 and 2015, but not everybody remembers the 30-0 loss later in 2014 or the two-touchdown loss to Memphis less than a month after the Bama win in 2015. Freeze is a great offensive mind - and he’ll be taking over playcalling this year, by the way - and a great recruiter, but consistency and focus is always a question with his teams.

Quarterback: Payton Thorne is back which is, well, not that inspiring. After transferring in from Michigan State, Thorne threw for over 200 yards only twice in thirteen games last season, and had six games where he threw for 100 yards or less which doesn’t even include his 102 yard showing against LSU last year. To be fair to Thorne, we have seen him be effective when he’s surrounded by talent better than what Auburn had last year, and Auburn has done a good job of putting weapons around him this offseason. But this is far from a guy that’s going out there and putting the team on his back to win SEC games.

Schedule analysis: The out of conference schedule is a breeze outside of the Cal game, which is interesting only because Cal running back Jadyn Ott is an absolute stud who’s hard for anyone to stop, but the Tigers should go 4-0 out of conference regardless. The SEC schedule is somewhat of a gauntlet though, opening at home against Arkansas and then against Oklahoma before traveling for three straight road games against Georgia, Missouri, and Kentucky. Auburn hosts Texas A&M on November 23rd before the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa after Thanksgiving.

One reason to watch this team: Auburn brought in a ton of young talent that will make them more competitive than they were last year, but no other player’s debut is as anticipated as wide receiver Cam Coleman. Coleman is one of the best receiving prospects to come out in years and had offers from everybody in the country, but much like we see in other parts of the world,  organizations such as Al Qaeda and ISIS are often able to warp the minds of young people and recruit them to join their horrific movements, and Auburn is no different. Coleman is absolutely electric and would’ve been better than everyone in Auburn’s receiver room last year as a 17 year old, and Freeze was also able to bring in borderline 5-star Perry Thompson and talented Penn State transfer Keandre Lambert Smith as well. Even if the rest of the roster is not yet on par with the best in the SEC, these are the type of weapons that will make Auburn dangerous for anybody in the league to play. Expect some banger Auburn games this year, they’ll be exciting to watch.

Florida Gators

Coach: Billy Napier enters his third season in Gainesville on one of the hottest seats in the country after back-to-back losing seasons in his first two years, embarrassing recruiting headlines, losing his best running back to his school’s biggest rival in the transfer portal, and multiple lapses on the field that have made him and his staff look entirely unprepared at times. Napier made it clear in his opening press conference back in 2022 that the build would take time, but that luxury is not given in the SEC when you’re 1-7 against your top four rivals, 0-2 against Kentucky, 1-1 against Vanderbilt, and kicked a field goal down 30 as time expired against Oregon State to avoid getting shut out in the only bowl game you’ve been to yet. We still believe Napier is objectively a good coach, but that has hardly flashed at all in two years and if it once again doesn’t show this year, he’s toast.

Quarterback: Graham Mertz returns for his second year at Florida after transferring from Wisconsin, and as much as people joked about him going into last season, he was actually pretty damn good and was far from Florida’s main issue. He threw for nearly 3,000 yards last year with 20 TD’s and only 3 INT’s, and while he isn’t expected to be a high NFL draft pick by any means, he has a plus arm, a great feel for the game in the pocket, and is pretty athletic as well. Still, there are those in Gainesville still hoping for a QB battle in fall camp, as Napier somehow brought in DJ Lagway from Willis, Texas, the #1 QB in the country. Lagway is the future at Florida (as long as Napier doesn’t get canned), and even with Mertz expected to start, expect to see Lagway in a reserve role in just about every game Florida plays this year.

Schedule analysis: Oh boy. I am not hyperbolizing when I say this is possibly the hardest schedule in college football history. The Gators open against Miami, who may have their best team in two decades, which is obviously a very loseable game. They get a gimme against Samford in Week 2 (though Samford did score 52 on Florida the last time they played), and then it’s A&M at home and Mississippi State on the road before a bye week. Not so bad so far, right? Well then Florida hosts UCF in a “little brother” game that will almost certainly be the nail in the coffin for Napier if they lose. And then comes the gauntlet: at Tennessee, at Kentucky, bye, vs Georgia in Jacksonville, at Texas, vs LSU, vs Ole Miss, and at Florida State. My goodness gracious.

One reason to watch this team: With that schedule, you don’t really even need a “reason” to watch this team - they’re just automatically going to be on your television all fall. But wide receiver Trey Wilson is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands, and there’s the potential to see Lagway, an almost surefire star in the making, in every game Florida plays this year. The offense could be pretty good and this team won’t be an easy out, so there’s potential upset spots just by the sheer number of elite teams the Gators have on the schedule.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Coach: Shane Beamer enters his fourth year as the head man at Carolina and while he’s led one of the most mid teams in the league since 2021, he certainly still has belief in his program. At SEC Media Days on Tuesday, Beamer said: “There’s no ceiling at the University of South Carolina. Our expectations at South Carolina are to compete for a spot in that twelve-team playoff, year in and year out.” If you say so my man. He’s 20-18 overall so far in Columbia, including a 5-7 2023 campaign where he had a very talented NFL Draft pick at QB, a first-round pick at receiver, and another likely high draft pick at WR in Juice Wells (now at Ole Miss). He no longer has those things.

Quarterback: Redshirt Freshman LaNorris Sellers takes over with Spencer Rattler off to the NFL, and for a guy who has thrown four passes so far in his career, he sure is getting a ton of hype. He’s 6’3 and nearly 250 pounds with an absolute cannon of an arm, and he uses his size and athleticism on the ground as well. We currently have zero idea what his abilities are as a pocket passer but if he shows some accuracy and ability to be patient and read defenses, South Carolina may have something here. This is a guy to keep an eye on.

Schedule analysis: The out of conference schedule consists of Old Dominion, Akron, and Wofford in addition to the annual rivalry game against Clemson, so at least three wins are secure here for Beamer’s squad. SEC play kicks off at Kentucky which is followed by a visit from LSU, so the Gamecocks questionable defense will be tested early. The mid-season stretch of Ole Miss, @ Alabama, and @ Oklahoma is absolutely brutal though, and while both Texas A&M and Missouri will be on upset watch when they visit Columbia in November, there’s probably only one guaranteed win against Vandy and a bunch of toss ups/probable losses. This seems like another year of the Cocks fighting for bowl eligibility.

One reason to watch this team: If any version of this absurd quote turns out to be true, South Carolina may be cooking. But we’ll be watching the Gamecocks this year to see if wide receiver Nyck Harbor, arguably the most absurd athlete in the country and currently the most broken player in the new video game, lives up to his insane potential. Harbor has been one foot in, one foot out with football as he is an elite track athlete for USC as well, but offseason reports indicate he’s fully committed to football and ready to give the Gamecocks an absurd mismatch offensively.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Coach: Big Fat Sam Pittman is still the head coach for the time being and we’re absolutely certain that the hiring of former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino (who was famously fired after committing sins while on a motorcycle) as offensive coordinator this offseason has absolutely nothing to do with Pittman being on the hot seat and Arkansas likely needing an interim and eventual replacement within the next few months. Nothing to do with it at all. Pittman revitalized Arkansas football after the disastrous Chad Morris tenure that absolutely tanked the program, but after a nine-win 2021, the Razorbacks fell to 7-6 in 2022 and 4-8 in 2023. Pittman is getting older and Arkansas has very high - possibly unreasonable - expectations for their program, so another lackluster year means a change is likely coming sooner rather than later.

Quarterback: Taylen Green comes in from Boise State to replace multi-year starter KJ Jefferson who left for UCF this offseason. Green is wildly talented but still extremely raw in his mechanics and ability to read defenses consistently. But he’s big (6’6, 220+), fast for his size (19 career rushing touchdowns), and is now paired with Petrino who is one of the best QB-run offensive schemers in the entire sport. This is a name you’ll know pretty soon, whether Arkansas is any good or not.

Schedule analysis: An out of conference road game against a good Oklahoma State squad is not ideal for a team that’s trying to scrap their way to a bowl game, but the rest of the out of conference schedule should be a breeze. Opening SEC play at Auburn is no fun, and while the Hogs do avoid both Alabama and Georgia, games against A&M, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas, and Missouri will be far from easy. Four of those five games are at home though, so maybe we see them pull off an upset?

One reason to watch this team: Much like some of the other lower-level SEC squads, the most intriguing part of this team is their potentially dynamic quarterback. Green isn’t as powerful of a runner as KJ Jefferson was, but he’s quicker and faster and as we discussed above, his skillset being paired with Bobby Petrino’s explosive offensive system will likely create some holy shit highlights this year, if nothing else. Watch out for the very talented UGA transfer, linebacker Xavian Sorey on defense as well.

Tier 4: Thrilled if they Sneak into the Union Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Coach: Jeff Lebby takes over for Zach Arnett, who was the interim last year in the wake of Mike Leach’s saddening death. This is Lebby’s first time as a head coach and while he’s got his work cut out for him in this job, he is one of the brightest offensive minds in the game, having led very successful offenses at UCF, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma in recent years. He’s a bit of a hot head too, which could be fun to watch even if this team isn’t!

Quarterback: Blake Shapen transfers in from Baylor where he was once hyped up as possibly the next big thing in Waco, which… did not work out for him. He’s battled injuries at times but even while healthy was more or less of an average QB on an average team. He does have some raw talent within him (hence the original hype a couple of years ago), so maybe a change of scenery and a better offensive coach in Lebby unlocks a few things for him.

Schedule analysis: Mississippi State has a mid-season stretch that sees them play Florida, @ Texas, @ Georgia, and Texas A&M, and a late-season stretch that ends @ Tennessee, Missouri, and @ Ole Miss for the Egg Bowl. I do not anticipate those games going very well for the Bulldogs, so they need to sweep their easy out of conference schedule, beat Arkansas at home, and hope for an upset elsewhere to make a bowl game this season.

One reason to watch this team: It’s hard to say because this team has seen more turnover than almost anyone in the country since Mike Leach’s passing a year and a half ago - they’ll be replacing 20 of their 22 starters from last year. Lebby is an elite playcaller though, with a knack for scheming guys open and being notoriously difficult to gameplan for. State is, to some degree, going to be overlooked by all of the superior SEC teams they’re playing this year, so it wouldn’t shock me to see the Bulldogs come out hot offensively and give good teams a scare once or twice this year.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Coach: Clark Lea returns for his fourth season and while the expectation was always that the rebuild at Vandy would be long and difficult when he was hired in 2021, things are looking a little bleak at the moment. Lea went 2-10 in his first season, jumped up to 5-7 in year 2 which inspired a lot of confidence, but fell back down to 2-10 last season. The SEC is now a much tougher league and Vanderbilt continues to lose some of its best players to the portal. Lea is a good football coach but there is only so much one can do at this program these days

Quarterback: Diego Pavia transfers in from New Mexico State where he was one of the most electric quarterbacks in the country in 2023. He threw for 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns while rushing for another 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s. Sure, he mostly did that against pretty terrible Conference USA defenses, but he also threw three of those TD’s in a win against Auburn last year, so his patriotism cannot be questioned. Really good player who could and probably should have ended up somewhere better than Vanderbilt.

Schedule analysis: Uhh, sooo… about that… The season kicks off against Virginia Tech who many believe is a sleeper in the ACC - that’s a likely loss before conference play even starts. The SEC didn’t do the ‘Dores any favors either, sending them to Missouri to kick off their SEC schedule which is followed by a visit from Alabama. There’s a nice Ball State game right in the middle of the schedule that could provide them a little momentum, but even that is followed by a trip to Auburn and a visit from Texas. The last two games are against LSU and Tennessee. Yeesh.

One reason to watch this team: Diego Pavia is the one and only reason to watch this team this year, but honestly, he’s a pretty good reason. He’s electric as an improviser/scrambler, and is absolutely good enough to make things happen against much more talented teams - especially because just about every SEC team on Vandy’s schedule is going to walk in expecting a cakewalk. Pavia could act as a bit of a chaos agent at times this year against sleepy defenses, and he’ll be damn fun to watch when that does happen.

Have a great Thursday and we will talk to you next week.